公用事业2024中期策略：估值的升维

估值的升维 公用事业2024中期策略 021-38031730 S0880522020001 021-38038670 S0880122070052 021-38031030 S0880123070143 α 请参阅附注免责声明1 请参阅附注免责声明2 请参阅附注免责声明3 22% 15%15% 11% 13% 7%5%5% 0% 4%3%0% -2%-4%-6%-7%-7%-8%-8%-8% -11% -9%-9%-10%-10%-10%-11% -12% -15% -16% -22% -16%-18% -18% -21% -28% -33% 石有交公家通非沪煤钢建汽建传环电社国机基食电农纺轻商美医房综计油色通用用信银深炭铁筑车筑媒保子会防械础品力林织工贸容药地合算石金运事电金材装服军设化饮设牧服制零护生产机化属输业器融料饰务工备工料备渔饰造售理物 20242024  614 6.5% 4 41~614 300 1.3% 32 4 9.6% 16% SW公用事业收益率 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% 2024/1/12024/2/12024/3/12024/4/12024/5/12024/6/1 Wind 300 请参阅附注免责声明4  SW火电 SW水电 SW风电 SW光伏 中国核电 沪深300收益率 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2024/1/22024/1/162024/1/302024/2/132024/2/272024/3/122024/3/262024/4/92024/4/232024/5/72024/5/212024/6/4 Wind 请参阅附注免责声明5 20242024~2024 614 PB1.49 1.60 2017 49.1% 2024614PB1.22/2.78/1.48/0.942017 PB 2.0 2017 82.4%/99.7%/8.8%/1.9%72.8% SW公用事业PB SW公用事业PB/沪深300PB 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2017/1/12018/1/12019/1/12020/1/12021/1/12022/1/12023/1/12024/1/1 Wind Wind SW火电 SW水电 SW风电 SW光伏 中国核电 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 2017/1/12018/1/12019/1/12020/1/12021/1/12022/1/12023/1/12024/1/1 请参阅附注免责声明6 2017-01 2017-03 2017-05 2017-07 2017-09 2017-11 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 2021-11 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05   10 EPR 10年期国债收益率（%） ERP（右轴，%） 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% ERP=1/PETTM-10 A 请参阅附注免责声明 7 Wind 请参阅附注免责声明8 1Q241Q24+9.8%2023+3.1ppts  11Q24 2023 31Q24 35.7%202321Q24  1 1Q24 2023 AI 1Q24 2  11Q24 2023 2023 1Q24176+70.0% 1Q23+4.1% 2 请参阅附注免责声明9 01 % ppts % ppts 2023 1~3M24 2023 1Q24 2023 1Q24 5869 2080 6.7% 9.8% 3.1 / / / 187 20 10.6% 5.4% -5.3 3.2% 0.9% -2.2 105 26 3.9% 3.9% 0.0 1.8% 1.3% -0.5 3251 743 7.7% 7.3% -0.4 55.4% 35.7% -19.7 481 353 4.4% 12.2% 7.8 8.2% 17.0% 8.8 -39 -3 -3.6% -1.2% 2.4 -0.7% -0.1% 0.5 292 49 14.3% 9.0% -5.4 5.0% 2.4% -2.6 131 41 9.8% 12.3% 2.5 2.2% 2.0% -0.3 544 166 17.7% 22.0% 4.3 9.3% 8.0% -1.3 159 42 16.6% 17.4% 0.8 2.7% 2.0% -0.7 8 4 3.7% 8.0% 4.3 0.1% 0.2% 0.1 169 59 10.2% 14.5% 4.4 2.9% 2.9% 0.0 122 34 16.3% 19.6% 3.3 2.1% 1.6% -0.4 27 26 3.2% 11.3% 8.1 0.5% 1.2% 0.8 27 9 11.9% 16.0% 4.2 0.5% 0.4% 0.0 24 10 3.4% 5.3% 1.9 0.4% 0.5% 0.1 212 62 18.3% 21.1% 2.8 3.6% 3.0% -0.6 29 14 6.3% 11.4% 5.1 0.5% 0.7% 0.2 43 20 6.1% 11.6% 5.5 0.7% 1.0% 0.2 158 405 1.2% 12.0% 10.8 2.7% 19.5% 16.8 数据来源：Wind、中电联，国泰君安证券研究请参阅附注免责声明10 用电增量 同比（%） 贡献率（%） 2023 1~3M24 2023 1Q24 2023 1Q24 3251 743 7.7% 7.3% -0.4 / / / 392 103 28.6% 29.6% 1.0 12.1% 13.9% 1.8 237 86 10.2% 16.3% 6.0 7.3% 11.6% 4.3 583 103 7.9% 5.4% -2.5 17.9% 13.9% -4.0 251 84 4.6% 6.1% 1.5 7.7% 11.3% 3.6 229 41 13.5% 9.0% -4.5 7.0% 5.5% -1.5 116 39 5.0% 7.6% 2.6 3.6% 5.2% 1.7 268 -25 4.4% -1.6% -6.0 8.2% -3.3% -11.6 147 36 8.8% 10.0% 1.2 4.5% 4.9% 0.4 109 32 6.8% 9.0% 2.2 3.3% 4.3% 1.0 274 31 6.8% 3.7% -3.1 8.4% 4.2% -4.2 77 26 8.6% 12.4% 3.8 2.4% 3.5% 1.2 113 25 16.5% 15.0% -1.5 3.5% 3.4% -0.1 71 25 6.5% 9.7% 3.2 2.2% 3.3% 1.1 52 17 11.5% 16.1% 4.6 1.6% 2.3% 0.7 43 14 9.1% 12.9% 3.8 1.3% 1.9% 0.6 29 11 3.7% 6.4% 2.7 0.9% 1.5% 0.6 56 12 10.7% 10.2% -0.5 1.7% 1.7% 0.0 22 9 5.2% 9.0% 3.7 0.7% 1.2% 0.5 20 2 11.6% 5.2% -6.4 0.6% 0.3% -0.3 7 2 4.2% 5.5% 1.3 0.2% 0.3% 0.1 -1 0 -2.6% 2.8% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1 22 9 6.0% 12.2% 6.2 0.7% 1.2% 0.5 10 4 4.3% 10.1% 5.8 0.3% 0.6% 0.3 15 6 3.9% 7.7% 3.9 0.5% 0.9% 0.4 16 7 8.9% 18.6% 9.6 0.5% 0.9% 0.4 6 3 4.1% 10.0% 5.9 0.2% 0.4% 0.2 6 5 3.6% 14.6% 11.0 0.2% 0.7% 0.5 14 6 4.0% 7.5% 3.5 0.4% 0.8% 0.3 -10 2 -10.3% 13.6% 24.0 -0.3% 0.3% 0.6 -3 0 -3.7% 0.4% 4.1 -0.1% 0.0% 0.1 80 24 11.2% 14.9% 3.7 2.5% 3.2% 0.7 01 数据来源：Wind、中电联，国泰君安证券研究 请参阅附注免责声明11  我国居民人均生活用电量（千瓦时/人） 总人口城镇化率（%） 1200 70% 1000 60% 800 50% 40% 600 30% 400 20% 200 10% 0 0% 中国 美国 日本 经合组织 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 请参阅附注免责声明12 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E % 83128 10.5% 86372 3.9% 92241 6.8% 98237 6.5% 103640 5.5% 83768 86941 92888 98926 104367 1.0156463 1.0157307 1.0161019 1.0161534 1.0162677 50426 50770 53790 53691 54118 4075 4178 4341 4533 4836 13401 13550 12836 14812 15132 6556 7624 8858 10231 11756 3270 4276 5833 7816 9965 % 9.8%9.1% 3.8%1.5% 6.8%6.5% 6.5%0.8% 5.5%1.9% 8.9% 0.7% 5.9% -0.2% 0.8% 11.3% 2.5% 3.9% 4.4% 6.7% -1.1% 1.1% -5.3% 15.4% 2.2% 40.5% 16.3% 16.2% 15.5% 14.9% 25.2% 30.8% 36.4% 34.0% 27.5% 23.813.0 25.613.3 29.213.9 32.014.7 35.715.7 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.8 3.1 3.9 6.1 7.9 9.7 20242023 2024 1.29 20052023 12024 22023 +75.2%2023+55.8%2023  2024 6.5% 2024614Wind2024EGDP 5.0%1.30 请参阅附