RMI落基山研究所：2023全生态系统下的钢铁行业低碳转型战略报告：供给-需求-政策-金融联动

Global Perspectives on Steel IndustryDecarbonisationStrategies across Supply, Demand, Policy & Finance 落基山研究所（RMI）工业脱碳部门总监李抒苡sli@rmi.org 重工业领域碳减排对实现气候目标至关重要 Decarbonizing heavy industries is critical to achieve climate targets 工业直接碳排放占全国总量的40%，是实现双碳目标的关键领域 In China, industry is responsible for 40% of total carbon emissions •China's major heavy industrial products of global total: 55% steel,57% cement, 58% aluminum, 33% ammonia•China's direct industrial CO2 emissions account for nearly 40% ofthe national total, and if indirect emissions are included, theyaccount for about 64% of the national total•Five major industries account for 80% of total CO2emissions inindustry: steel, cement, chemicals, aluminum, coking •我国主要重工业产品产量占全球比例：粗钢55%、水泥57%、电解铝58%、合成氨33%•中国工业领域二氧化碳直接排放占全国总量近40%，若含间接排放，则占到全国总量64%左右•五大行业占到了工业领域CO2总排放的80%：黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业（钢铁）、非金属矿物制品业（水泥）、化学原料和化学制品制造业（化工）、有色金属冶炼和压延业（铝业）、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业（石化、炼焦） 生产接近零排放的重工业材料仍然存在成本溢价 Producing near-zero heavy industrial materials today still has a cost premium 通过技术进步和规模效应，可再生能源技术成本将进一步降低，减少相应的成本溢价 Further cost reductions in clean energy technologies will reduce these cost premiums.Cost declines areexpected from learning-by-doing and economies-of-scale 实现新能源成本下降，需要实施能够克服溢价的初期项目 Realising these declines requires initial projects which can overcome the premium 重工业行业自身需开始考虑尽早投资低碳技术，增加近零排放产品产量。低碳技术项目目前的投资成本较高，但通过合理运用三大杠杆（需求、政策、金融）联动供给侧，工业行业可以在近期克服溢价，并在远期形成规模效应大幅降低生产成本。 Hard-to-abate industries will need to invest in green projects with emissions reduction technologies to increase thesupply of net zero products and meet emissions reductions targets. Such projects require massive investment.Support from demand, policy, and finance, can improve the business case to make these investments today. As theinvestment grows it is expected that future costs will decline with learning and scale. 钢铁生产减碳、脱碳技术成熟度水平与发展时间线 Timeline and maturity level of different steel decarbonization technologies 钢铁零碳生产路径碳减排成本变化趋势 Trend of decarbonization cost for net-zero production routes in the steel industry 到2050年，基于碳捕集和氢气直接还原铁的钢铁生产都可以低于700元/吨二氧化碳的碳减排成本得到实施。 By 2050, both carbon capture-based andhydrogenDRI-based steel production canbe implemented at costs below 700RMB/tCO2. 规模化废钢利用与推进初级钢低碳生产路径是钢铁行业转型的关键手段 Scaled scrap utilization and promotion of low-carbon primary steel are key means of transforming the steel industry •中国的粗钢产量占全球的一半以上；Chinacrudesteelproductionismorethanhalfofglobaltotalproduction; 全球粗钢产量在逐年增长，而中国产量稳中有降。 Global crude steel production is increasing, while China's productionis steadily decreasing. 基于废钢的再生钢在国际和国内都将成为重要生产方式；Scrap-based secondary steel becomes a vital production route both 再生钢 globally and in China; •随着中国废钢资源量的增加，中国的短流程再生钢的发展潜能也更大。As the amount of scrap resources in China increases, there is morepotential for the development of scrap-based secondary steel in China. 中国初级钢生产技术基于煤炭还原，而国际也可基于天然气还原；Chinese primary steel production technology based on coal reduction, 初级钢 while globally it can also be based on natural gas reduction; 生物质将在远期应用于国际的钢铁生产，而在中国钢铁行业应用潜力有限。 Bioenergy will be utilized in steel production in the long term globally,with limited potential for application in China's steel industry. 需求侧对减少上游难以减少的排放的承诺有所增加 Purchaser commitments to reduce upstream hard-to-abate emissions are increasing 到2030年，美国约有56家企业将需要约640万吨绿色钢材来实现减碳目标 By 2030, ~6.4 Mt of green steel will be required in the US across ~56 companies to meet carbon targets 供给-需求侧协同形成脱碳合力：部分案例 Supply-demand collaborations to further drive industry decarbonization:casestudy 河钢集团-宝马集团HBIS-BMW Salzgitter AG–SALCOS H2 Green Steel 德国(Germany) Salzgitter 瑞典(Sweden) Boden •120万吨氢冶金示范项目•2026年起，宝马沈阳生产基地在整车量产中使用河钢生产的“绿钢”•从2026年起，每年预计将减少碳排放约23万吨1.2Mthydrogen-basedsteelmakingGreensteelsupplyfrom2026230kt carbonreductionperyearfrom2026 制氢：100 MW炼铁：210万吨/年DRI炼钢：190万吨/年EAF首批生产：2025全面生产：60万吨/年2026H2IronSteel1stprod.Fullprod. 制氢：800 MW炼铁：190万吨/年DRI炼钢：250万吨/年EAF首批生产：2026全面生产：250万吨/年2027H2IronSteel1stprod.Fullprod. 14%奔驰、宝马和大众已与萨尔茨吉特公司达成承购合同 一些承购商和供应商已入股该公司，承购合同讨论中 14%签署《打造绿色低碳钢铁供应链合作备忘录》 SSAB–HYBRIT GravitHy 瑞典(Sweden)Luleå和Gällivare制氢：2.0 GW炼铁：130万吨/年DRI炼钢：230万吨/年EAF首批生产：2025全面生产：230万吨/年2026H2IronSteel1stprod.Fullprod. 法国(France)Fos-sur-Mer •2023年逐步提供碳排放强度大幅降低的低碳钢Low-carbonemissionssteelfrom2023 14%13%From2026,steelcarbonintensitydecreasesby50%-80%.Reaching95%reductionafterwards. •2026年起，宝钢股份提供车辆用钢的碳排放强度将逐步降低50%-80%；随后进一步提供减碳95%的绿钢 HYBRIT由LKAB、Vattenfall和SSAB联合创立，沃尔沃参与了研究和开发，并将成为绿色钢铁的承购商 签署《打造绿色钢铁供应链合作备忘录》 采购方面临的挑战：如何提高减排透明度以实现溢价定价 Challenge for buyers–transparency on emissions reductions to enable premium Abatement Technology减排技术 在多个论坛上，采购方均提到一个关键障碍：如何确保任何绿色溢价与减排成本直接挂钩 绿氢Greenhydrogen Key barrier cited by buyers in multiple forums was ensuring that any greenpremium relates to abatement costs 生物质Bioenergy RMI召集的钢铁生产/采购论坛RMI Convened Forums for Steel Producers/Buyers 美国的突破性投资论坛汇聚了钢铁生产商、采购方和金融机构与能源转型委员会（ETC） USbreakthrough investment forumsbring together steel pro