机械行业中期报告：装备全球，龙头先行

     出口成为机械行业重要驱动力 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2014201520162017201820192020202120222023 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% () :::SITC:74 yoy() :::SITC:74 () yoy() yoy 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 201820192020202120222023 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 0-20% yoy()yoy()yoy() 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 21M1-2 21M3 21M4 21M5 21M6 21M7 21M8 21M9 21M10-11 : 21M12 22M1-2 22M3 22M4 : 22M5 22M6 ( 22M7 22M8 22M9 ) 22M10-11 22M12 23M1-2 23M3 23M4 yoy( 23M5 23M6 23M7 ) 23M8 23M9 23M10-11 23M12 24M1-2 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2018 -10% 24M3 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2020202120222023 2020/03 2020/04 2020/05 2020/06 2020/07 2020/08 2020/09 2020/10 2020/11 2020/12 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 2021/04 2021/05 2021/06 2021/07 2021/08 2021/09 2021/10 2021/11 2021/12 2022/01 2022/02 2022/03 2022/04 2022/05 2022/06 2022/07 2022/08 2022/09 2022/10 2022/11 2022/12 2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 2023/12 2024/01 2024/02 2024/03  80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2020/03 -20% 2020/06 2020/09 2020/12 2021/03 2021/06 2021/09 2021/12 2022/03 2022/06 2022/09 2022/12 2023/03 2023/06 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 : : : ( ) : : : : ( ) : : : ( ) -40% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% -30% -50% : : : : ( ) : : : : ( )   70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 CRB : : 2009/10 2010/04 2010/10 2011/04 : : 2011/10 2012/04 2012/10 PMI PMI 2013/04 2013/10 2014/04 2014/10 2015/04 2015/10 2016/04 2016/10 2017/04 2017/10 2018/04 : : 2018/10 2019/04 2019/10 PMI 2020/04 2020/10 (ISM): 2021/04 2021/10 2022/04 2022/10 PMI 2023/04 2023/10 2000/01/03 2001/01/03 2002/01/03 2003/01/03 2004/01/03 2005/01/03 2006/01/03 2007/01/03 2008/01/03 2009/01/03 2010/01/03 2011/01/03 2012/01/03 2013/01/03 2014/01/03 2015/01/03 2016/01/03 2017/01/03 2018/01/03 2019/01/03 2020/01/03 2021/01/03 2022/01/03 2023/01/03 2024/01/03 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2024/04 矿山机械：下游需求高景气，国产设备厂商获切入机遇 13 (19911100) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 20202021202220232024E yoyyoy 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 2023yoy 202220232024 2022202320242023yoy 2024yoy 4560% 40 50% 35 3040% 25 30% 20 1520% 10 10% 5 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 1-12 00% 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 100% 2024yoy 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% yoy yoy 14080% 120 100 80 60 40 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 -40% 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 20-20% yoyyoy 200 150 100 50 0 -50 300% 201420152016201720182019202020212022 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% -300% -400% 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 201420152016201720182019202020212022 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1    YoY 船舶：全球竞争力持续提升 21  35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 DWT 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 10000+DWT 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 DWT 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TEU 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 2023 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 80% 50 60% 40 30 40% 20 20% 10 0% 0 -20% -10 -40% -20 -30 YOY 铁路装备：维保需求爆发增长，新车需求持续复苏 27 () () () 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 201920202021202220231-4M24 YOY 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 0 -10% 2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220231-4M24 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-5M24 350 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 YOY YOY 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 20172018201920202021202220231Q24 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 20172018201920202021202220231Q24 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 工程机械：出口增长延续，内需企稳 34 yoy 25025% 200 150 100 50 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 0-10%  70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2022202310 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 20222023  300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 yoy 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 2022/05 2022/06 2022/07 2022/08 2022/09 2022/10 2022/11 2022/12 2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 2023/12 2024/01 2024/02 2024/03 2024/04 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 120% 100% 80% 60%