聚烯烃日报：丙烷强势，PDH制PP利润走低

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。聚烯烃延续窄幅震荡。部分装置计划检修，但PP新扩能企业放量，石化库存高于往年同期，供应压力仍存。国际油价反弹，成本支撑走强，丙烷价格亦走强，PDH制PP生产利润亏损，关注对PDH装置开工影响。聚烯烃下游需求逐步进入淡季，供需矛盾暂无缓解，交投气氛偏弱，预计聚烯烃偏震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存80万吨（-4）。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-20元/吨，PP华东基差在-90元/吨。 联系人 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，丙烷价格走强，PDH制PP生产利润走低。中煤榆林30 PE装置与30 PP装置停车检修。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨................................................