聚烯烃日报：丙烷小幅走高，PDH制PP利润下行

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。聚烯烃期现价格窄幅震荡。检修装置陆续重启，装置减损量下滑，PP新增产能放量，供应端承压。原油延续下行，成本支撑减弱，丙烷价格小幅走高，PDH制PP利润尚可。PE下游农膜处于淡季过渡时期，其他下游大体维持，需求跟进不足压制价格走势。预计聚烯烃窄幅震荡。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存87万吨（-1）。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-50元/吨，PP华东基差在-80元/吨。 联系人 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油价格走弱，油制PE生产利润盈利，PDH制PP生产利润尚可，成本端支撑走弱。广西鸿谊15 PP装置检修，中科炼化35 PE装置、茂名石化22 PE装置、神华包头30 PP装置、大连恒力20 PP装置重启，PE与PP开工负荷提升。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18: