工作的新未来 ： 在欧洲及其他地区部署 AI 和提高技能的竞赛

Authors Eric HazanAnu MadgavkarMichael ChuiSven SmitDana MaorGurneet Singh DandonaRoland Huyghues-Despointes May 2024 About the McKinseyGlobal Institute The McKinsey Global Institutewas established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a factbase to aid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’scompanies and policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral,and functional knowledge, skills, and expertise, but editorial direction and decisions are solelythe responsibility of MGI directors and partners. Our research is grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively—Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably—Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent—Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, and ideasshape economies—Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of value andcompetition We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or paidfor by any business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free ofcharge; and we are entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multipledistinguished external advisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in ourpublications are MGI’s alone, and any errors are our own. You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI Directors MGI Partners Michael ChuiMekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin SeongTilman Tacke Sven Smit (chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudSylvain JohanssonOlivia White Contents Spotlight: Manufacturing40 3 Context: Labor shortagesand a slowdown inproductivity growth4 Spotlight: Healthcare42 Implications forthe workforce44 Potential for acceleratedwork transitions ahead10 Enhancing productivity andhuman capital in a time oftechnological ferment52 The varied geography oflabor market disruptions22 Technical appendix60 New skills for a new era26 Acknowledgments65 Spotlight: Wholesale andretail trade36 Spotlight: Financial services38 At a glance Amid tightening labor markets and a slowdown in productivity growth, Europe and theUnited States face shifts in labor demand, spurred by AI and automation.Our updatedmodeling of the future of work finds that demand for workers in STEM-related, healthcare,and other high-skill professions would rise while demand for occupations such as officeworkers, production workers, and customer service representatives would decline. By2030, in a midpoint adoption scenario, up to 30 percent of current hours worked could beautomated, accelerated by generative AI. Efforts to achieve net-zero emissions, an agingworkforce, and growth in e-commerce as well as infrastructure and technology spending andoverall economic growth could also shift employment demand. By 2030, Europe could require up to 12 million occupational transitions, double theprepandemic pace.In the United States, required transitions could reach almost 12 million,in line with the prepandemic norm. Both regions navigated even higher levels of labor marketshifts at the height of the COVID-19 period, suggesting that they can handle this scale offuture job transitions. The pace of occupational change is broadly similar among countries inEurope, although the specific mix reflects their economic variations. Businesses will need a major skills upgrade.Demand for technological and social andemotional skills could rise as demand for physical and manual and higher cognitive skillsstabilizes. Surveyed executives in Europe and the United States expressed a need not justfor advanced IT and data analytics but also for critical thinking, creativity, and teaching andtraining—skills they report as currently being in short supply. Companies plan to focus onretraining workers, in addition to hiring or subcontracting, to meet skill needs. Workers with lower wages face challenges of redeployment as demand reweightstoward occupations with higher wages in both Europe and the United States. Occupations with lower wages are likely to see reductions in demand, and workers will needto acquire new skills to transition to better-paying work. If that doesn’t happen, there is a riskof a more polarized labor market, with more higher-wage jobs than workers and too manyworkers for existing lower-wage jobs. Choices made today could revive productivity growth while creating better societaloutcomes.Embracing the path of accelerated technology adoption with proactive workerredeployment could help Europe achieve an annual productivity growth rate of up to3 percent through 2030. However, slow adoption and slow redeployment would limit that to0.3 percent, closer to today’s level of productivity growth in Western Europe. Slow workerredeployment would leave millions unable to participate productively in th