Climate Adaptation in Uzbekistan

April 2024 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributors. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation or liability concerning the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown onany map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of the World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages thedissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercialpurposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2024. Climate Adaptation in Uzbekistan: LandscapeRestoration Opportunities. Washington, DC: World Bank. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email:pubrights@worldbank.org. Climate Adaptationin Uzbekistan:Landscape RestorationOpportunities Contents Acknowledgments...........................................................................................................................................ivAcronyms..............................................................................................................................................................................vAbstract................................................................................................................................................................................viExecutive Summary........................................................................................................................................1 7. Multi-Criteria Future Hotspots of AdaptationOpportunity..............................................................................................................................................................28 7.1. Feasibility of the Landscape Restoration:Two Portfolios........................................................................................................................................................287.2. Costs of Action (Investments) and Benefit:Cost Analysis...........................................................................................................................................................307.2.1. Costs of Action.................................................................................................................................317.2.2. Benefits of Action and Benefit-Cost Ratio..............................31 8. Bringing It All Together: Recommendations forLand Investments to Restore Ecosystem Servicesand Livelihoods in Uzbekistan..............................................................................................33 2. Uzbekistan’s Land Use and Climate Risk Outlookup to the Mid-Century...............................................................................................................................9 8.1. Prioritizing Investments for LandscapeRestoration..................................................................................................................................................................34 8.2. Mobilizing Finance for Landscape Restoration...................35 Bibliography..............................................................................................................................................................39 Annexes Annex 1.Methods to Assess Drivers of Changeand Identify Hotspots of Land Degradation...............................................42Annex 2.Methods to Model Ecosystem Services andIdentify Hotspots of Adaptation Opportunity.......................................46Annex 3.Description of Data, Assumptions, andProcedures Used in Estimation of Ecosystem ServicesLost to Land Degradation..............................................................................................................54Annex 4.Detailed Results of Cost-Benefit Analysisof Landscape Restoration..............................