外部市场影响，油脂持续上涨

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2409合约7490元/吨，环比上涨36元，涨幅0.48%；昨日收盘豆油2409合约7756元/吨，环比上涨20元，涨幅0.26%；昨日收盘菜油2409合约8866元/吨，环比上涨85元，涨幅0.97%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价7870元/吨，环比上涨100元，涨幅1.29%，现货基差P09+380，环比上涨64元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨，涨幅0.13%，现货基差Y09+124，环比下跌10元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8940元/吨，环比上涨90元，涨幅1.02%，现货基差OI05+74，环比上涨5元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印度溶剂萃取商协会（SEA）表示，印度4月棕榈油进口环比上月增长40.9%至684094吨，豆油进口环比增长76.4%至385514吨，葵花籽油进口环比减少47.3%至234801吨。印度4月植物油进口总量环比上月增长11.5%至130万吨。阿根廷豆油(6月船期) C&F价格960美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调36美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(7月船期)C&F价格954美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调35美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（6月船期）C&F价格1020美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油(8月船期)C&F价格1020元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，国内油脂受美豆油上涨影响，三大油脂延续震荡上涨格局。菜油方面，目前国内菜油基差疲软，菜油整体呈现近弱远强，近期油厂远月成交放量。受欧洲天气影响，菜籽油在三大油脂中表现较强，菜豆价差、菜棕价差不断走扩，但是菜油近端供应压力依旧很大，继续走强需要新的驱动，需求无起色下菜籽油大概率走弱。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 ■策略 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图