2024年一季度全球黄金需求趋势报告

2024年4月 议程 需求概览 •金饰•科技用金•金条和金币•黄金ETF•央行购金 供应概览 •金矿产量•回收金 2024全年供需展望 今年以来，金价持续刷新纪录高位，跑赢其他大类资产 央行购金和场外需求再度成为全球黄金需求的主要驱动 一季度全球黄金需求（不含场外）同比下滑5%至1,102吨；但包含场外交易后总体需求达到了1,238吨，同比上升3%，也是2016年以来的最强的第一季度 •全球央行再度大举购金，一季度净买入290吨•金条和金币投资为312吨，环比持平，同比上升3%；但黄金ETF总持仓下降了114吨•全球金饰消费展现韧性，仅有2%的小幅同比下滑，至479吨•科技用金需求出现了同比10%的复苏，主要由AI热潮推动•金矿产量同比上升4%至893吨，是我们纪录中最高的第一季度；高金价则推动回收金供应同比上升12%，达351吨 高金价背景下，全球金饰消费展现惊人韧性 AI潮涌，电子板块带动科技用金需求显著复苏 东方市场金条金币投资风头强劲，再度盖过西方市场 中国金条金币投资火热，领衔全球增长 一季度中国金条金币投资达到了110吨，同比大增68%，是2013年以来的最高第一季度 欧洲和北美地区黄金ETF持仓规模持续下降，亚洲地区持仓增加 而中国黄金ETF连续五个月现净流入 一季度中国黄金ETF总持仓上升6吨，而4月截止目前已大幅增长24吨，刷新月度持仓增长的历史纪录，总持仓里程碑似的突破90吨 全球央行购金势不可挡，创下一季度纪录新高 土耳其，中国和印度央行购金领衔全球 全球央行净购金量：已公开vs未公开（金属聚焦估算） 2024见证了金矿产量最高的第一季度 回收金供应则升至2020年第三季度以来的最高水平 供需展望 预期同比吨数变动（2024 vs 2023*) 我们预计… 相对2023年吨数变动 投资需求有望继续增长 •黄金ETF的净流出是一季度投资需求的主要拖累；但展望未来，地缘政治和各类大选不确定性或提升投资者避险需求；下半年或更晚，市场目光有望再度聚焦降息预期，提振黄金ETF投资•金条和金币需求有望受到中国强劲动力的持续支撑，场外交易也有望提供助力 我们将全年央行购金总量从此前的预期谨慎提高 •高金价背景下，央行购金步伐或略有放缓，甚至可能出现战术性的获利回吐 类投资消费和印度的经济增长或令金饰和科技用金需求维持韧性 •但高金价将成为阻碍之一•AI热潮和亚洲主要市场经济增长有望继续推动科技用金，但供应链扰动和全球经济放缓的可能性或带来负面影响 全年金矿产量或升至纪录高位 •北美，中国和加纳的扩产和增产有望推动金矿产量上升•尽管近市场供应有所下滑，但高金价背景下，回收金供应仍有上升空间 长期来看，黄金的收益率不输任何一项主流资产 各类资产在不同周期中的年化回报率对比 Important information and disclosures © 2024 World Gold Council. All rights reserved.World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates. of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or theunderlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them. of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of theWorld Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved. the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any andall use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus, or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with MetalsFocus. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accepts responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of thisinformation. purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services,securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Diversification does not guarantee any investment returnsand does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performanceis not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypotheticalin nature, may not reflect actual investment results and arenot guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use.Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments. This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and aresubject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. The World Gold Council and its affiliatesassume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.