2024年全球药物使用情况

A few important notes and remindersbefore we begin: The Global Use ofMedicines 2024 O U T L O O K TO 2028 3 1J a n u a r y 2 0 2 4 Agenda +9:00–9:05 a.m. Welcome and IntroductionsMurray Aitken, Executive DirectorIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science +9:05–9:30 a.m. Global outlook and driversMichael Kleinrock, Research DirectorIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science +9:30–10:20 a.m. Regional highlights •United States–Elyse Muñoz•Europe, Middle East, Africa–Sarah Rickwood•China–Howard Chen•Japan–Alan Thomas•Latin America–Sydney Clark +10:20–10:30 a.m. Moderated discussion Close Speakers Sarah RickwoodVP, Thought LeadershipIQVIA EMEA Elyse MuñozDirector, ThoughtLeadershipIQVIA U.S. Sydney ClarkVP, Consulting ServicesIQVIA LATAM Alan ThomasSenior Director, Thought Leadership IQVIA Japan Howard ChenManaging PrincipalIQVIA China Murray AitkenExecutive DirectorIQVIA Institute forHuman Data Science Michael KleinrockResearch DirectorIQVIA Institute forHuman Data Science Global outlook and drivers Global spending, including COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics,is forecast to exceed pre-pandemic outlook by $1.2Tn to 2028 Changes in the historical and projected global medicine spending model due to COVID-19, 2019–2028,US$Bn Global market growth will significantly exceed the pre-pandemicoutlook even as COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic usage declines Comparison of current outlook to pre-COVID-19 outlook Key events in the outlook 2020: Growth-3.0% slower than pre-pandemic projection (~$39Bn)2021: +14.2% higher growthincluding vaccines and therapeuticscompared to spending without them2022/3: COVID vaccine andtherapeutic use has slowed,resulting in lower growthSustained recovery of market willdrive long-term growth 1-2% higherthan the pre-pandemic outlook1234 Per capita use of medicines varies by GDP with use in higherincome countries typically higher than in lower income ones Defined daily doses (DDD) per capita by region compared to per capita gross domestic productPPP, current international dollars The global medicine market—using invoice price levels—isexpected to grow at 5–8% CAGR through 2028 to about $2.3Tn Global medicine market size and growth 2014–2028 including estimated COVID vaccine andtherapeutic spending Spending and volume growth are following diverging trends byregion Spending and volume growth by region Higher global spending growth occurred in key regions after thepandemic, particularly in 2023 in North America Spending growth globally and in 9 regions, total market excluding COVID-19 vaccines andtherapeutics, const US$ 2019–2028 Spending growth globally and in 9 regions, total market excluding COVID-19 vaccines andSpending growth is driven by mix—the change in the averagecost of medicines—in many key regions therapeutics, const US$ 2014–2028 Oncology and obesity lead growth while immunology slows dueto biosimilars; many other classes growing in mid-single digits Top 20 therapy areas in 2028 in terms of global spending with forecast 5-year CAGRs, const $USBn Oncology and obesity will lead growth through 2028 whileimmunology and diabetes growth will slow Global historic and forecast growth for top 20 therapy areas Global oncology spending to reach $440Bn by 2028,with growthaccelerating from novel drugs, slowed by biosimilars in later years Global oncology spending and growth Immunology spending growth will slow to 2-5% through 2028 frombiosimilar impact as volume growth continues at 12% annually Global immunology spending and growth Diabetes spending growth is in low single-digits in most developedmarkets with declines in some, including the U.S., on a net basis Diabetes spending and growth Global obesity spending has accelerated in the past 2 years fromnovel drugs with a significant upside if more widely reimbursed Global obesity spending and growth New therapies in Alzheimer’s and anxiety/depression areexpected to drive spending growth in neurology Leading CNS disorders global market growth dynamics The outlook for next generation biotherapeutics includessignificantly uncertain clinical and commercial successes Cell, gene and RNA therapeutics The Global Use ofMedicines 2024 U.S. Market Overview The U.S. market is forecast to grow 2–5% CAGR over the next fiveyears on a net-basis, down from 5.3% CAGR for the past five years U.S. medicine spending and growth at invoice-level and estimated net 2014–2028, excludingCOVID-19 vaccines and therapeuticsForecast Spending in the U.S. is expected to increase by $299Bn through2028, driven by new and existing brands Spending and growth drivers in US 2018–2028 ConstUS$Bn New brand spending in the U.S. is projected to be higher than thelast five years, but comprises a smaller share of spending U.S. new brand spending A harrowing launch environment exists amid access and costspressures as payers and manufacturers prepare for new policies Difficult launch environment Proposed Part D changes Increase in acces