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OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA ©2023 Asian Development Bank, Bloomberg Philanthropies, ClimateWorks Foundation, Sustainable Energy for All Sustainable Energy for All, Andromeda Tower 15th floor, Donau City Strasse 6, 1220, Vienna, AustriaISBN 978-92-9270-224-3 (print); 978-92-9270-225-0 (electronic) Published in August 2023. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequenceof their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed orrecommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in thispublication, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the contentof this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and termsof use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to materials in this publication whose copyright is owned by third parties. If the material is attributed to another source, please contactthe copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. The copyright holders of this publication cannot be held liable for any claims that ariseas a result of your use of the material. Contents Chapter 3. Charging Up the Battery Manufacturing Industry in Southeast Asia25 A. Battery Manufacturing TrendsB. Battery Manufacturing: Key Factors for InvestmentC. Policy Interventions and Supporting Mechanisms to Unlock OpportunitiesD. Battery Manufacturing: “Size of Prize”25303234 Chapter 4. Electric Two-Wheeler Manufacturing: The Race to Electrify Southeast Asia’s Streets36 Exhibits, Case Studies, andExamples EXHIBITS Exhibit 1.$90 billion–$100 billion opportunity in low-carbon mobility and clean power by 2030Exhibit 2.Southeast Asian countries are well-positioned to meet ambitious goals by 2030Exhibit 3.Southeast Asia accounts for 9%–10% of global cell and module capacityExhibit 4.Europe and Southeast Asia are likely most attractive future export marketsExhibit 5.Potential to expand regional demand with supportive regulationsExhibit 6.Solar PV demand in the Philippines is hindered by its grid infrastructureExhibit 7.Southeast Asian production costs are 15%–35% higher than the PRC’sExhibit 8.To date, battery cell manufacturing players have announced commitments in Southeast Asia, amounting to atotal of approximately 60 GWh capacity by 2030Exhibit 9.The Indonesian government has indicated an aspiration to develop 140 GWh in battery cell manufacturingcapacity by 2030, by establishing an end-to-end value chainExhibit 10.NMC battery has over 50% share of the global battery demand and is projected to grow at more than 20%annually. However, Southeast Asia accounts for only a small portion of the total demandExhibit 11.Demand is expected to accelerate in some Southeast Asian countries over the next decadeExhibit 12.Assessment of Indonesia: strong growth potential with opportunities to improve LCOS competitiveness andtechnology adoptionExhibit 13.Example of cost competitiveness simulation exercise: Indonesia cost of battery production is expected to be5%–10% higher than the PRC’sExhibit 14.1.4–1.5 mn units annual assembly capacity with Viet Nam having largest assembly capacityExhibit 15.~4.5 mn unit market projected in 2030 with Indonesia emerging as the largest market by 2030Exhibit 16.Indonesia has room to develop customer-centric products, E2W financing options and distribution channelsExhibit 17.Localization of manufacturing and scale effects can reduce the costs by up to 9% in IndonesiaExhibit 18.Scale-up of renewable energy manufacturing in Southeast Asia111113141516172526272728293637384147 CASE STUDIES Case Study 1. Malaysia:Significant Role of Non-financial SupportCase Study 2. The People’s Republic of China:Solar PV as a National Strategic PriorityCase Study 3. The Philippines:Learnings from the Semiconductor IndustryCase Study 4. The People’s Republic of China:“All-in” Government Push to Raise Local Champions and Build anEnd-to-end Battery Value Chain19202132 EXAMPLES Example 1.Priority Supporting Mechanisms for the Philippines to Unlock the Opportunity in Solar PV ManufacturingExample 2. “Size of Prize” for the PhilippinesExample 3.Priority Supporting Mechanisms for I