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RENEWABLEENERGYMANUFACTURING:OPPORTUNITIESFORSOUTHEASTASIA1 RenewableEnergyManufacturing OPPORTUNITIESFORSOUTHEASTASIA ©2023AsianDevelopmentBank,BloombergPhilanthropies,ClimateWorksFoundation,SustainableEnergyforAll SustainableEnergyforAll,AndromedaTower15thfloor,DonauCityStrasse6,1220,Vienna,AustriaISBN978-92-9270-224-3(print);978-92-9270-225-0(electronic) PublishedinAugust2023. TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. Note:ADBrecognizes“China”asthePeople’sRepublicofChina. ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytomaterialsinthispublicationwhosecopyrightisownedbythirdparties.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.Thecopyrightholdersofthispublicationcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. Contents Exhibits,CaseStudies,andExamples4 Abbreviations5 StatementsfromPartners6 Introduction7 ExecutiveSummary8 Chapter1.AStrongManufacturingFoundation11 Chapter2.ShiningaLightonSolarPV:OpportunitiesinSoutheastAsia13 A.SolarPVManufacturingTrends13 B.SolarPVManufacturing:KeyFactorsforInvestment18 C.PolicyInterventionsandSupportingMechanismstoUnlockOpportunities20 D.SolarPVManufacturing:“SizeofPrize”23 Chapter3.ChargingUptheBatteryManufacturingIndustryinSoutheastAsia25 A.BatteryManufacturingTrends25 B.BatteryManufacturing:KeyFactorsforInvestment30 C.PolicyInterventionsandSupportingMechanismstoUnlockOpportunities32 D.BatteryManufacturing:“SizeofPrize”34 Chapter4.ElectricTwo-WheelerManufacturing:TheRacetoElectrifySoutheastAsia’sStreets36 A.ElectricTwo-WheelerManufacturingTrends36 B.ElectricTwo-WheelerManufacturing:KeyFactorsforInvestment39 C.PolicyInterventionsandSupportingMechanismstoUnlockOpportunities42 D.ElectricTwo-WheelerManufacturing:“SizeofPrize”44 Chapter5.PowerinPartnership:ExploringOpportunitiesforRegionalCollaboration46 Exhibits,CaseStudies,andExamples EXHIBITSExhibit1.$90billion–$100billionopportunityinlow-carbonmobilityandcleanpowerby2030 11 Exhibit2.SoutheastAsiancountriesarewell-positionedtomeetambitiousgoalsby2030 11 Exhibit3.SoutheastAsiaaccountsfor9%–10%ofglobalcellandmodulecapacity 13 Exhibit4.EuropeandSoutheastAsiaarelikelymostattractivefutureexportmarkets 14 Exhibit5.Potentialtoexpandregionaldemandwithsupportiveregulations 15 Exhibit6.SolarPVdemandinthePhilippinesishinderedbyitsgridinfrastructure 16 Exhibit7.SoutheastAsianproductioncostsare15%–35%higherthanthePRC’s 17 Exhibit8.Todate,batterycellmanufacturingplayershaveannouncedcommitmentsinSoutheastAsia,amountingtoatotalofapproximately60GWhcapacityby2030 25 Exhibit9.TheIndonesiangovernmenthasindicatedanaspirationtodevelop140GWhinbatterycellmanufacturingcapacityby2030,byestablishinganend-to-endvaluechain 26 Exhibit10.NMCbatteryhasover50%shareoftheglobalbatterydemandandisprojectedtogrowatmorethan20%annually.However,SoutheastAsiaaccountsforonlyasmallportionofthetotaldemand 27 Exhibit11.DemandisexpectedtoaccelerateinsomeSoutheastAsiancountriesoverthenextdecade 27 Exhibit12.AssessmentofIndonesia:stronggrowthpotentialwithopportunitiestoimproveLCOScompetitivenessandtechnologyadoption 28 Exhibit13.Exampleofcostcompetitivenesssimulationexercise:Indonesiacostofbatteryproductionisexpectedtobe5%–10%higherthanthePRC’s 29 Exhibit14.1.4–1.5mnunitsannualassemblycapacitywithVietNamhavinglargestassemblycapacity 36 Exhibit15.~4.5mnunitmarketprojectedin2030withIndonesiaemergingasthelargestmarketby2030 37 Exhibit16.Indonesiahasroomtodevelopcustomer-centricproducts,E2Wfinancingoptionsanddistributionchannels 38 Exhibit17.Localizationofmanufacturingandscaleeffectscanreducethecostsbyupto9%inIndonesia 41 Exhibit18.Scale-upofrenewableenergymanufacturinginSoutheastAsia 47 CASESTUDIESCaseStudy1.Malaysia:SignificantRoleofNon-financialSupport 19 CaseStudy2.ThePeople’sRepublicofChina:SolarPVasaNationalStrategicPriority 20 CaseStudy3.ThePhilippines:LearningsfromtheSemiconductorIndustry 21 CaseStudy4.ThePeople’sRepublicofChina:“All-in”GovernmentPushtoRaiseLocalChampionsandBuildanEnd-to-endBatteryValueChain