行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要 seedance2.0 低空经济 DeepSeek AIGC 大模型

预计 2024E 的销量增长将加速

2024-05-06 Wayne Fung 招银国际 caddie💞

United Energy's financial performance and outlook are highlighted in this equity research update. Despite experiencing low volume growth and an impairment of its Iraqi assets in 2023, the company is expected to see accelerated volume growth in 2024 and 2025 due to the commencement of major central processing facilities in Iraq Block 9.

Key Points:

Accelerated Volume Growth

2024E/2025E: Daily working interest volume growth is projected to accelerate to 10% and 11%, respectively, driven by the expansion of central processing facilities in Iraq Block 9.
2023: Volume growth was stagnant at just 0.2%.

Impairment of Assets

Iraq Assets: A total impairment of HK$5.1 billion was recorded in 2023, impacting the company's reserves and profitability.
Reserve Decline: Iraq's 2P reserves decreased by 33% year-over-year by the end of 2023.

Positive Outlook

Oil & Gas Output: Targets average daily working interest output of 101.6-113.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, indicating potential growth over the next few years.
Petroleum Trading: Initiated a petrochemical trading business in 2023, contributing HK$3.2 billion to total revenue but with less visibility on earnings.

Challenges and Risks

Market Volatility: Intra-day share price volatility may affect trading days.
Trading Business Visibility: The petrochemical trading business lacks clear earnings visibility.
Price Fluctuations: Dependence on crude and gas prices.
Further Impairments: Potential for additional asset write-offs.
Receivables Management: Managing receivables could pose challenges.

Financial Adjustments

Target Price: Revised down to HK$0.96 from HK$1.45.
Discounted Valuation: Target P/E revised to reflect reduced reserves, now at 8x for 2024E compared to the historical average.
BP and P/E Ratios: Adjusted for varying conditions over different years.
Share Performance: Showed significant fluctuation over the past year, particularly downward.

2024E Earnings Summary

Revenue: Projected to grow from HK$13,591 million in FY23A to HK$15,707 million in FY24E.
Adjusted Net Profit: Expected to rise from HK$3,151 million to HK$3,571 million.
EPS: Increases from HK$12.05 to HK$13.65.
Dividend Yield: Steady at around 4%.

This summary highlights United Energy's strategic focus on enhancing volume growth through strategic investments in Iraq Block 9 while managing risks associated with volatile markets and asset management.

United Energy (467 HK) Expect volume growth to accelerate in 2024E Target PriceHK$0.96(Previous TPHK$1.45)Up/Downside50.0%Current PriceHK$0.64 Webelieve the low volume growth in 2023 and the impairment of Iraq assetshave been gradually digested by the market.Weslashour 2024E/25Eearningsforecastby 26%/28% due to lower oil & gas output and higher production costassumptions. On the positive side, we expect thecommencementofmajorcentral processing facilities in Iraq Block 9 in late Apr will boost the dailydesigned output capacityin Iraq’s Block 9to 100k/boed this year (currently~75k). Weestimatethis should help UEG’s totaldailyworking interestvolumegrowth to accelerateto10%/11% in 2024E/25E,versus0.2% in 2023. Given thecapexguidanceofUS$880-930mn(~HK$6.9-7.3bn)this year, we still expectUEG to achieve positive free cash.Our TP is revised down to HK$0.96fromHK$1.45, as we revise down ourtarget P/E(2024E)to8x(previously10x2023),representing a 40% discount to the historical averageto reflect the reduction ofreserves.Our Brentpriceassumption in2024E-25EisUS$87per barrel. Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Impairment ofIraq assets affected 2P reserves.UEG made a totalimpairment of HK$5.1bn in 2023 (versus HK$828mn in 2022). Among this,one-off oil&gas reserves impairment and exploration dry well write-offamounted to ~HK$4.4bn, mainly due to(1)the decrease in formationpressure in the main Yamama reservoir,and(2)thephysical propertiesandconnectivity of the Mishrif reservoir being less optimal than expected.Thisresulted ina33%YoYdecline inIraq’s2P reserves(i.e. proven reserves+probable reserves)by end-2023 Oil & gasoutputgrowthto acceleratein 2024E. UEGtargets toachieveaveragedaily working interest output of 101.6-113.5k barrels of oilequivalent per day (boed),implyingoutput growth (1% to13% YoY) thisyear(versus only 0.2% growth in 2023). Low visibility on petrochemical trading business.UEG started thepetrochemicaltrading business in 2023,with substantial revenuecontribution of HK$3.2bn(23% of total revenue).The segment was close tobreakeven atthe EBIT level. We expect the segment will continue tocontributesubstantialrevenue,butwithlessvisibilityon earnings. Risk factors:1)High volatility of intra-day share priceonsome tradingdays; 2) low visibility on trading business; 3)decline in crude & gas price;4)furtherimpairment loss;5) rising receivables. Related Report:1.UEG–Limited operational risk in the Middle East; Beneficiary of highercrude price-16 Oct 20232.UEG–A mixed bag; volume growthis still the key–2 Apr 2023 Key highlights in2023 results Loss makingmainlydue to impairment of Iraq assets.Oil and gas sales valuein2023 dropped11% YoY toUS$2.2bn (~HK$17.6bn),due to a11% YoY decline inrealized price(Crude: US$61.3/bbl,-18% YoY; Natural gas: US$30.9/boe; +4% YoY).Stripping out the government royalty, windfall levy & government take and tradingbusiness, net revenue of exploration & production in 2023 dropped 3%YoY toHK$10.4bn.UEG started petrochemical trading business in 2023,with revenuecontribution of HK$3.2bn. UEG reportedunexpected impairment loss on intangibleasset/PP&E of HK$2.26bn/2.83bn in 2023 (up 2.7x/12x YoY)mainlydue to impairmentof Iraq assets.Adjusted for these items,thepre-tax net profit would be ~HK$3.1bn,-19% YoY.Reported net loss in 2023 was HK$1.7bn, versus net profit of HK$2.6bn in2022. Average daily working interest productionin2023+0.2%YoYto 100.4k boed.Iraq’sBlock 9/Sibaachievedworking interestproduction growth of10%/23% YoY to37.9k/7.4k boed in2023. Pakistan/Egypt assets sawa9%/4% YoY decrease in dailyworking interest production in2023. Overall lifting costincreased more than expectation.Unit lifting expense in2023increased ~9%YoYtoUS$4.5/boe(+12%YoYin Pakistan, +8% YoYin the Middle East& North Africa (MENA)).Given that the lifting expense was stable in 1H23, theincreaseinexpense happened mainly in 2H23. Net cash positionto support capex.UEGwas in net cash position by end-2023. UEGguided afull-year capex target ofUS$880-930mn(~HK$6.9-7.3bn)in 2024E, up fromHK$6.9bn in 2023. Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the codeof conduct issued by The Hong Kong Sec

点击免费查看完整报告