东帝汶的财政状况：税收和公共支出对贫困和不平等的影响

IMPACT OF TAXATION AND PUBLIC EXPENDITUREON POVERTY AND INEQUALITY APRIL ���� FISCAL INCIDENCEIN TIMOR-LESTE IMPACT OF TAXATION AND PUBLIC EXPENDITUREON POVERTY AND INEQUALITY APRIL ���� Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2024 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2024. ISBN 978-92-9270-595-4 (print); 978-92-9270-596-1 (electronic); 978-92-9270-597-8 (e-book)Publication Stock No. SPR230620-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR230620-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country”in this publication, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: 1.This study was conducted under TA 9122-TIM: Timor-Leste, Fiscal Policy for Improved Service Delivery. This studywas managed by David Freedman, former Country Economist, and the publication was managed by Kavita Iyengar,Economist, Southeast Asia Department.2.In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. On the cover:Common folk and market scenes from Timor-Leste(photos by Luis Enrique Ascui/ADB). Forewordv 3.Data5Data Sources5Data Limitations5Construction of the Income and Expenditure Variables6 4.ResultsImpact of Taxes and Social Expenditures on Poverty and InequalityTargeting the Incidence of Taxes and ExpendituresCoverage 881116 5.Policy SimulationsBolsa da MãeElectricity SubsidiesIncreasing Wage Income TaxesShifting to a Value-Added Tax Appendixes Tables and Figures Tables 1Tax and Expenditure Items Included in the Assessment62Inequality and Poverty for Commitment to Equity Income Measures83Targeting and Effectiveness of Social Expenditures134Targeting and Effectiveness of Taxes155Coverage of Transfer Payments166Education Coverage177Health Care Coverage as a Percentage of Total Population in Quintile188Bolsa da MãeSimulations209Universal Basic Income Simulations2310Electricity Subsidy Simulations2411Wage Income Tax Simulations2512Value-Added Tax Simulations26A1.1Timor-Leste Excise Duty Rates, 201432A1.2Cost-of-Provision for Free and Subsidized Health and Education Services33A1.3Government Revenues, Actual Budgets, and TLSLS Estimates35A1.4Government Expenditures, Actual Budgets, and TLSLS Estimates38A2.1Example Data for a Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient39A2.2Foster–Greer–Thorbecke Measure of Poverty: An Illustration40A2.3Example Data for a Concentration Curve41 Figures 1Definition of the Commitment to Equity Income Concepts42Change in Gini Coefficient from Market to Final Income93Change in Poverty Headcount from Market to Consumable Income104Net Payers or Beneficiaries of Taxes and Social Expenditures by Decile105Net Payers or Beneficiaries of Taxes and Social Expenditures by Decile (Vertical Axis Truncated)116Concentration Coefficients for Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, Selected from Countries19with Completed Commitment to Equity AssessmentsA1.1Civil Servants by Pay Grade, Payroll Data versus TLSLS Data36A2.1Example Lorenz Curve40A2.2Concentration Curve41 Foreword Timor-Leste’s experience provides an importantexample of how fiscal policies can support post-crisis recovery. Since 2006, successive governmentshave used the revenues from offshore oil and gasproduction to f