贵金属期货周报—2024-4-13观点自2022年3季度以来，美国通胀数据持续下行，商品的通胀因素对于贵金属价格走势是不利的。只有经济快速失速，联储政策利率才会下行，中短端的实际利率才会下来，市场流动性才会改善，才能凸显无风险资产的投资价值，债券和黄金价格才有很好的驱动因素。美元因素是黄金投资的一个看点，由于美国利率仍然较欧洲、日本和中国利率为高，所以套息投资者会选择做多美国债券同时空美元指数的方式避险，所以在衰退落地之前，美元偏弱的逻辑一致存在，所以这一点对于贵金属而言利多因素始终存在。黄金的价格还与中东的巴以局势密切相关，如果战争失控，将大幅利多黄金。美元黄金行情已经转变为交易联储货币政策鸽派转向和美元持续贬值的预期，虽然人民币面临升值影响国内黄金价格，但阶段驱动力在美元金，人民币黄已经跟随外盘美金金完成冲击前期高点，建议中周期逢低布局多单，前高附近可以试空并布局短期空单，可以反复操作。免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。研究员：许亮期货从业：F0260140交易咨询从业证书号：Z0002220审核：唐韵Z0002422地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 目录黄金白银市场概览黄金市场跟踪白银市场跟踪黄金与白银进口利润跟踪影响贵金属价格走势的主要因素美元指数期货持仓跟踪美国国债期货持仓跟踪美国通胀预期美国实际利率美国利率期限结构美国与主要非美国家的2年期国债利差2交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号DYQH-W-股指 上海东亚期货|周报：黄金白银市场概览—黄金市场跟踪数据来源：Bloomberg，Wind，EAFCOMEX:期货和期权(新版):管理基金黄金：多头持仓黄金：空头持仓日度外盘黄金ETF持仓（吨）SPDR:黄金ETF:持有量(吨)iShares:黄金ETF:持有量(吨)期货持仓量:黄金(上海：手)库存期货:黄金（上海仓单，吨）COMEX:黄金:库存（外盘：盎司）最新持仓（张）12245035978最新持仓14478624024079273617持仓占比（%）2165天增减-4 -1 -2 16492-0 11周增减（张）-5556 259910天增减26-4 46665-1 -2 1,3751,3801,3851,3901,3951,4001,4052024-03-122024-03-142024-03-162024-03-182024-03-202024-03-222024-03-242024-03-262024-03-282024-03-302024-04-012024-04-032024-04-052024-04-072024-04-092024-04-11黄金ETF持仓_总计（吨）831 383 3803813823833843853863873883898208228248268288308328348368388402024-03-122024-03-142024-03-162024-03-182024-03-202024-03-222024-03-242024-03-262024-03-282024-03-302024-04-012024-04-032024-04-052024-04-072024-04-092024-04-11SPDR:黄金ETF:持有量(吨)(左轴)iShares:黄金:持仓量(吨)300,000320,000340,000360,000380,000400,000420,0002024-03-152024-03-172024-03-192024-03-212024-03-232024-03-252024-03-272024-03-292024-03-312024-04-022024-04-042024-04-062024-04-082024-04-10期货持仓量:黄金(盘口)3交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号DYQH-W-股指 上海东亚期货|周报：黄金白银市场概览—黄金市场跟踪数据来源：Bloomberg，Wind，EAF5425445465485505525545565582024-03-152024-03-162024-03-172024-03-182024-03-192024-03-202024-03-212024-03-222024-03-232024-03-242024-03-252024-03-262024-03-272024-03-282024-03-292024-03-302024-03-312024-04-012024-04-022024-04-032024-04-042024-04-052024-04-062024-04-072024-04-082024-04-092024-04-102024-04-11COMEX:黄金:库存（仓单）（吨）3.013.023.033.043.053.063.073.083.093.103.112024-03-122024-03-142024-03-162024-03-182024-03-202024-03-222024-03-242024-03-262024-03-282024-03-302024-04-012024-04-032024-04-052024-04-072024-04-092024-04-11库存期货:黄金（上海仓单：吨）050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002023-09-052023-09-192023-10-032023-10-172023-10-312023-11-142023-11-282023-12-122023-12-262024-01-092024-01-232024-02-062024-02-202024-03-052024-03-192024-04-02COMEX:黄金:期货和期权(新版):资产管理机构多头持仓:持仓数量020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002023-09-052023-09-192023-10-032023-10-172023-10-312023-11-142023-11-282023-12-122023-12-262024-01-092024-01-232024-02-062024-02-202024-03-052024-03-192024-04-02COMEX:黄金:期货和期权(新版):资产管理机构空头持仓:持仓数量(50,000)050,000100,000150,000200,0002023-09-052023-09-192023-10-032023-10-172023-10-312023-11-142023-11-282023-12-122023-12-262024-01-092024-01-232024-02-062024-02-202024-03-052024-03-192024-04-02COMEX:黄金:期货和期权(新版):管理基金:净多头持仓4交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号DYQH-W-股指 上海东亚期货|周报：黄金白银市场概览—白银市场跟踪数据来源：Bloomberg，Wind，EAFCOMEX:期货和期权:管理基金白银：多头持仓白银：空头持仓日度外盘白银ETF持仓（吨）SLV:白银ETF:持仓量(吨)期货盘口持仓量:白银(上海：手)库存期货:白银（上海仓单，吨）COMEX:银:库存（外盘：吨）最新持仓（张）4427727801最新持仓236201380297179510758398持仓占比（%）24165天增减575878420-7 -52 1周增减（张）-4423 -4757 10天增减-29 -24 872200-61 22,80023,00023,20023,40023,60023,80024,00024,20024,40024,6002024-03-122024-03-142024-03-162024-03-182024-03-202024-03-222024-03-242024-03-262024-03-282024-03-302024-04-012024-04-032024-04-052024-04-072024-04-092024-04-11白银ETF持仓_总计（吨）12,50012,70012,90013,10013,30013,50013,70013,9002024-03-122024-03-142024-03-162024-03-182024-03-202024-03-222024-03-242024-03-262024-03-282024-03-302024-04-012024-04-032024-04-052024-04-072024-04-092024-04-11SLV:白银:净持仓量(吨)800,000850,000900,000950,0001,000,0001,050,0001,100,0002024-03-152024-03-172024-03-192024-03-212024-03-232024-03-252024-03-272024-03-292024-03-312024-04-022024-04-042024-04-062024-04-082024-04-10期货持仓量:白银(盘口)5交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号DYQH-W-股指 上海东亚期货|周报：黄金白银市场概览—白银市场跟踪数据来源：Bloomberg，Wind，EAF9009501,0001,0501,1001,1501,2002024-03-122024-03-192024-03-262024-04-022024-04-09库存期货:白银（上海仓单吨）8,7008,7508,8008,8508,9008,9509,0009,0509,1002024-03-152024-03-172024-03-192024-03-212024-03-232024-03-252024-03-272024-03-292024-03-312024-04-022024-04-042024-04-062024-04-082024-04-10COMEX:白银:库存（仓单）（吨）1,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002023-09-222023-10-132023-11-032023-11-242023-12-152024-01-052024-01-262024-02-162024-03-082024-03-29上海金交所白银库存2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0002023-11-032023-11-172023-12-012023-12-152023-12-292024-01-122024-01-262024-02-092024-02-232024-03-082024-03-222024-04-05上海金交所白银库存+上海期交白银库存期货(40,000)(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,0002023-09-052023-09-192023-10-032023-10-172023-10-312023-11-142023-11-282023-12-122023-12-262024-01-092024-01-232024-02-062024-02-202024-03-052024-03-192024-04-02COMEX:银:期货和期权:基金净多持仓20,00025,00030,00035,00040,0004