需求雾里看花，拐点能否如期而至

2024年04月02日 需求雾里看花，拐点能否如期而至 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 2024年Q1行情回顾：国际油价呈现震荡上行走势，价格重心出现上移。PX几番潮起潮落，在区间内震荡运行，主因是成本支撑和装置检修。PTA是来去皆快的春节行情，需求爆发是第二只靴子，预期中的爆发一直没有来临。乙二醇下游聚酯开工自春节后逐步回升至高位，聚酯行业月度产量再次刷新记录，但当下聚酯行业产销、成本压力增加导致后续开工提升空间下降，乙二醇需求边际增量明显受限。 后市展望：PX方面，预计将跟随原油区间运行，价格区间为8400-8800元/吨。3月前20天韩国向美国出口5.5万吨，部分兑现调油的预期，不过现货供应宽松压力不容忽视。3月PTA装置检修和新产能投放均在，具体执行力度有待观察，PX供应宽松的局面将在4月好转。当前PX取价进入以调油为主要支撑的5、6月，从装置开工来看，即便集中检修，开工大致下滑至与2022年水平，不会降至2023年的极低水平。PTA方面，预计将区间偏强运行，价格区间为5700-6100元/吨。PX调油带来的利好或有限，装置的变动将给盘面带来较多冲击。4月有新增450万吨产能，供应压力增加，将导致PTA加工费环比续降。部分PTA装置连续运行月份在12-14个月，存在检修或者技改停车的可能。需求端旺季不旺已是定局，一些新细分面料和新中式设计或将带来阶段性的利好，但均不具有持续性。涤丝和短纤出口在1-2月也明显下滑，后续恢复程度或不及去年同期。MEG方面，预计将偏弱整理，价格区间为4400-4700元/吨。港口库存仍是影响价格的关键，春节期间并未累库，但3月底去库已结束，库存开始进入上升通道，库存的拐点将在二季度出现。目前聚酯和织造开工提升均不及预期，需求恢复缓慢。聚酯产能增速将明显回落，作为投产主力的瓶片装置将受到开工和库存的压力，长丝和短纤新增产能基本于2024年年底落地，新增产能带来的增量需求有限。 相关报告 2024M12024年度策略报告《产业内卷不断，需求修复道阻且长》2024M22024月度策略报告《春节热烈备货，节后需求释放存疑》2024M2行业专题报告《聚酯行业的淡旺季及春节运行情况》2024M32024月度策略报告《节后表现淡如水，春风能否吹又生》 风险提示：原油价格大幅波动，调油需求变化多端 目录 （一）行情回顾：几番潮起潮落，成本定价是主逻辑........................................................................................................ 5（二）国内装置保持高位运行，二季度检修季预计损失较少............................................................................................ 6（三）调油预期部分兑现，后续应理性对待........................................................................................................................ 8 二、PTA......................................................................................................................................................................... 10 （一）行情回顾：来去皆快的春节行情，需求爆发是第二只靴子.................................................................................. 10（二）加工费先涨后跌，PX成本压力放大....................................................................................................................... 11（三）春节累库至近五年绝对高位，拐点于季末出现...................................................................................................... 13 三、MEG....................................................................................................................................................................... 14 （一）行情回顾：忽如一夜春风来，价格重心向上抬...................................................................................................... 14（二）春检按期进行，煤制利润继续好转......................................................................................................................... 15（三）迎来第一个不累库的春节，季末去库阶段性结束.................................................................................................. 16 四、聚酯......................................................................................................................................................................... 18 （一）行情回顾：节前节后差异较大，旺季不旺成常态.................................................................................................. 18（二）装置节后恢复慢于预期，产销情况略有摆烂.......................................................................................................... 18（三）权益库存低于实际库存，可忍受范围扩大.............................................................................................................. 21 （一）坯布价格始终被压制，新中式面料异军突起.......................................................................................................... 23（二）1-2月中国纺织服装品出口显著增长....................................................................................................................... 25（三）美国服装零售稳定，家居消费下降......................................................................................................................... 25 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································5图4：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································5图5：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································6图6：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）·····················································································································································6图8：PX月度产量（千吨）····················································································································································6图9：PXN价差走势（美元/吨）············································································································································8图10：PX进口平均单价（美元/吨）···············