聚烯烃日报：下游开工回升，市场小幅提振

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议暂观望。聚烯烃下游开工底部回升，需求逐步恢复，LLDPE下游农膜开工率35%（+15%），下游包装膜开工率45%（+13%），HDPE下游开工均明显提升。PP下游塑编开工率35%（+11%），下游BOPP开工率41%（-5%），下游注塑开工率36%（+10%）。市场小幅提振，聚烯烃偏强震荡。石化库存仍处高位，上游企业库存压力较大，去化速率偏慢。预计短期维持震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存96万吨，较上一日去库0.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-100元/吨，PP华东基差在-80元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价震荡走低，原油制LL至盈亏平衡附近，原油制PP与PDH仍亏损。PE、PP检修装置暂无变化，开工负荷保持中等水平。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨...................................