行业研究/行业周报：看好钢铁板块低估值央国企投资机会

主要观点： 报告日期：2024-01-28 ⚫钢材市场：淡季需求偏弱，市场稳定运行。 成本端：铁水下降导致原料需求有所减少，近期铁矿石和焦煤焦炭价格仍然坚挺。 供应端：整体产量回落，北方地区受天气影响导致钢厂检修及不饱和生产。 高频数据： 执业证书号：S0010523120003邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数+0.74%，其中长材、扁平板分别+0.62%、+0.87%。螺纹钢价格为3960元/吨，环比+1.54%；热轧板卷价格4160元/吨，环比+1.22%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为989.5元/吨，环比+3.4%；焦炭价格为2459.5元/吨，环比+0.55%；焦煤价格为1778.5元/吨，环比-2.41%。 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为80.66（-0.47%）/309.73（+5.42%）/93.26（-2.31%）/150.28（-0.36%）/226.89（-3.11%）万吨。开工率：高炉产能利用率83.5%，环比+0.52pct；高炉开工率76.82%，环比+0.59pct；电炉产能利用率56.38%，环比-2.28pct；电炉开工率57.69%，环比-2.57%，环比-1.28pct。库存：总社库1044.56万吨，环比+5.16%；总厂库438.72万吨，环比+2.25%；螺纹社库504.17万吨，环比+7.22%；螺纹厂库186.52万吨，环比+4.26%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。1月24日国务院国资委在新闻发布会上表示市值管理将纳入央企负责人业绩考核，建议配置钢铁板块高股息、低估值的央国企个股，推荐华菱钢铁（湖南省属国企），建议关注宝钢股份（央企）、南钢股份（央企）、中信特钢（央企）；产品创新推动钢铁在新兴领域应用，建议关注高端产品持续放量的久立特材、冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性标的甬金股份。 1.整体需求仍然偏弱，节前市场预期保持平稳2024-01-212.淡 季 需 求 偏 弱 ， 累 库 幅 度 加 快2024-01-143.关注钢铁板块低估值、高股息标的2024-01-06 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1钢铁板块央国企梳理...........................................................................................................................................................52本周行业动态......................................................................................................................................................................52.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................52.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................63本周公司动态......................................................................................................................................................................73.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................73.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................74数据追踪..............................................................................................................................................................................74.1钢厂盈利情况.......................................................................................................................................................................74.1.1钢材价格............................................................................................................................................................................74.1.2原材料供给........................................................................................................................................................................84.2钢材供应情况.....................................................................................................................................................................104.2.1库存..................................................................................................................................................................................104.2.2开工率..............................................................................................................................................................................104.2.3产量..................................................................................................................................................................................11风险提示：................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）...................................................................................................................................................6图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................................................................6图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................7图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................7图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................7图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................8图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）........................................................................