聚烯烃日报：装置检修增多，聚烯烃小幅上调

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议暂观望。PE较多装置开车重启，PP多套装置停车检修，生产企业报价坚挺，贸易商报盘小幅上涨。PE开工负荷提升，PP受装置检修影响，开工率下滑。上游库存高位，PE下游地膜逐步跟进，但仍维持刚需采购。LL进口窗口维持微利，PP进口窗口关闭。聚烯烃供应端压力较大，临近假期部分终端工厂陆续停工，长期来看聚烯烃基本面偏弱。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存59万吨，较上一工作日累库2万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-100元/吨，PP华东基差在-70元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油弱势，原油制PP生产利润亏损，PDH制PP生产利润接近盈亏平衡线，成本支撑尚可。独山子石化30 PE装置、兰州石化30 PE装置、上海石化5PE装置、茂名石化20 PP装置开车重启，中化泉州40 PE装置计划23日重启，茂名石化17 PP装置、海天石化20PP装置、海南乙烯30 PP装置停车检修，PE开工负荷明显提升，PP开工负荷下降。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口维持微利，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................