2023年12月信用债市场运行报告：信用债净融资由正转负，二级市场收益率整体下行

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2024年01月15日 、 信用债净融资由正转负，二级市场收益率整体下行 ——2023年12月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：曹晓婧 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，12月份信用债共发行7,955.31亿元，发行规模环比下降。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行2,776.37亿元、2,739.97亿元和1,980.91亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有34只，涉及金额240.59亿元，较上月增加11.83亿元。 净融资方面，12月份信用债净融资为-2,991.53亿元，净融资规模由正转负。10个重点行业中公用事业行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资382.60亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为-1,824.67亿元、-205.33亿元和-730.74亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为-2,127.21亿元和-864.32亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为-1,153.93亿元和-1,837.60亿元。近期城投债净融资持续下滑，或与本轮特殊再融资债发行、证监会条线公司债券发行新规等因素有关，一些高风险区域城投平台再融资或被限制。 到期压力方面，截至12月末，未来6个月将有44,004.90亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.74，较上月末减少0.01。分行业看，重点行业信用债到期压力环比涨跌不一。分企业性质看，国有企业信用债到期压力环比持平，非国有企业信用债到期压力环比下降。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债、非城投债到期压力环比均下降。 到期收益率方面，12月份不同期限与评级的中短期票据和城投债到期收益率均下行。其中，短期限低等级城投债到期收益率大幅下行，或是由于本轮特殊再融资债显示出政府偿债意愿，也缓解了偿债上的流动性压力，对贵州、云南等弱资质地区城投平台风险能起到一定缓释作用，进而估值得到有效改善。 信用利差方面，12月份不同期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差环比涨跌不一，除3年期AA-级城投债信用利差大幅收窄36.84BP外，其余期限评级的产业债和城投债信用利差变动幅度不大。从2015年以来的信用利差数据来看，不同期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差整体处于历史中低水平。 展望未来，2024年债券市场服务实体经济水平有望提高，国家重点支持的科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展等领域直接融资比例有望提升，多数重点产业的债券净融资流出局面或将改善。在前期持续防范化解重点领域风险背景下，信用债市场风险有所出清，中高等级信用主体的再融资压力或将有所减弱，一级市场发行量有望回升。二级市场方面，地产债、城投债等估值改善下，市场预期有望进一步稳定；但商品房销售市场暂未企稳，“土地财政”暂未有清晰替代模式出台，需继续防范重点化债领域弱资质主体的信用风险。 相关研究报告： 1.《2023年11月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.12.14 2.《2023年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.11.14 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets Jan 15th, 2024 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of 795.531 billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued in December, and the issuance scale decreased month-on-month. Among them, the short-term financing bills, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes with the largest issuance volume were 277.637 billion yuan, 273.997 billion yuan, and 198.091 billion yuan respectively. There were 34 corporate bonds cancelled or postponed this month, involving an amount of 24.059 billion yuan, an increase of 1.183 billion yuan from the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds in December was -299.153 billion yuan, which turned from positive to negative. Among the 10 key industries, the public utility industry contributed the most net financing, achieving a total net financing of 38.266 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA, AA+, and AA level entities was -182.467 billion yuan, -20.533 billion yuan, and -73.074 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was -212.721 billion yuan and -86.432 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was -115.393 billion yuan and -183.760 billion yuan respectively. The recent decline in net financing of LGFV bonds may be related to factors such as this round of special refinancing bond issuance and the new regulations on the issuance of corporate bonds by the CSRC. The refinancing of some LGFVs in high-risk areas may be restricted. In terms of maturity pressure, as of the end of December, 4,400.490 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.74, down 0.01 from the end of the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of corporate bonds in 10 key industries increased and decreased month-on-month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturity pressure of state-owned companies’ bonds remained the same month-on-month and the maturity pressure of non-state-owned companies’ bonds decreased month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of both LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds decreased month-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, the yield to maturity of short and medium-term bills and LGFV bonds of different maturities and ratings fell in December. Among them, the yield to maturity of short-term and low-grade LGFV bonds dropped significantly, or because this round of special refinancing bonds shows the government's willingness to repay debt, it also alleviates the liquidity pressure on debt repayment, which can play a certain role in easing the risk of LGFVs in Guizhou, Yunnan and other weak qualification areas, and then the valuation has been effectively improved. The net financing of corporate bonds turned negative, and the yields to maturity in the secondary market declined as a whole ——December 2023 China's corporate bonds market operation report Author: Cao Xiaojing, Jian Jiangping E-mail: research@fecr.com.cn