请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 海外研 究 公司深 度 研 究 报 告 证券研究报告 汽车 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 （ ＃investSuggestionChange＃ 首次 ） 来源：WIND，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃relatedReport＃ 相关报告 海外研究 ＃emailAuthor＃ 分析师： 余小丽 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC：AXK331 SAC：S0190518020003 李梦旋 limengxuan@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190523060003 请注意：李梦旋并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 ＃marketData＃ 市场数据 日期 2024-1-5 收盘价（港元） 25.00 总股本（百万股） 819 流通股本（百万股） 750 净资产（百万元） -19,451 总资产（百万元） 9,579 每股净资产（元） -23.8 ＃dyStockcode＃ 09690 .HK ＃dyCompany＃ 途虎-W 港股通（沪/深） ＃title＃ 汽车后市场大有可为，IAM渠道龙头空间广阔 ＃createTime1＃ 2024年1月8日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 我们的观点：首次覆盖途虎-W，给予“增持”评级，目标价32.00港元。途虎养车是中国最大的线上线下一体化汽车服务供应商，在门店网络与用户数量上较同行有领先地位。公司门店网络易于复制快速扩张，持续拓展新业务新品类，规模效应显著。此外，伴随汽车保有量增长、乘用车车龄增加、IAM市占率提升推动IAM汽车服务赛道规模持续增长。汽车服务赛道具有广阔发展空间。公司作为IAM汽车服务行业龙头公司，有望享受市场规模与份额提升的双重红利。我们首次覆盖给予公司“增持”评级，目标价32.00港元，对应2024年1.5倍PS。 汽车服务市场空间广阔，潜力巨大：汽车市场保有量、行驶里程数与平均车龄持续增长将带动下游汽车服务行业需求增长，根据灼识咨询预测，行业规模将由2022年1.2万亿元增长至 2027年1.9万亿元，CAGR约9.0%。中国汽车服务市场目前以授权经销商渠道为主，行驶里程及车龄日渐增长将导致更频繁的保养和维修需求，且车主更加倾向于高性价比、更加多元化的产品和服务，IAM市场市场份额占比有望提升。但IAM汽车服务市场目前高度分散，长期面临客户体验差、供应链复杂、履约流程低效等痛点，行业整合空间巨大。此外，新能源车虽然保养项目减少，但保有量渗透率提升仍然缓慢。全生命周期来看纯电车及插混车维修保养总开支并不低于燃油车，且售前售后分离模式也将促进第三方体系发展。 线上线下一体化的途虎模式，以用户需求为中心，解决供应链痛点，飞轮效应可期。途虎养车将零散的汽车服务需求聚集到一个平台上，上游直接与汽车零配件供应商合作，降低自身成本，提高门店盈利能力；下游通过自身强大的供应链和物流网络，为用户提供高效多样且标准统一的汽车服务。公司通过搭建数字化系统+仓储物流体系，革新供应体系提升效率；高效及可扩展的门店网络，确保标准化服务和快速扩张；规模扩大提升上游议价能力，发展定制产品及自有品牌持续降本；成本降低+效率提升，加盟途虎工场店盈利质量好；飞轮开始转动，将带动公司规模及盈利能力的进一步提升。此外，公司积极布局新能源领域，与主机厂及电池厂商展开合作。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、电动车保有量提升快于预期、业务品类拓展不及预期。 主要财务指标 ＄zycwzb|主要财务指标＄ 会计年度 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入(千元) 11,546,851 13,624,243 16,116,585 19,029,072 同比增长 -1.5% 18.0% 18.3% 18.1% 归母净利润(千元) -2,136,173 93,380 571,924 1,180,797 同比增长 - - 555.6% 106.5% 毛利率 19.7% 24.0% 25.8% 27.8% 归母净利润率 -18.5% 0.7% 3.5% 6.2% 每股收益(元) -2.61 0.11 0.70 1.44 来源：公司公告，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 海外公司深度研究报告 Key Data January 5, 2024 Closing Price（HKD） 25.90 Total Shares (Mn) 819 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 750 Net Assets (HKD/Mn) -19,451 Total Assets (HKD/Mn) 9,579 BVPS(HKD) -23.8 Source:Wind，Industrial Securities Research Institute Analyst YU Xiaoli yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC：AXK331 SAC：S0190518020003 LI Mengxuan limengxuan@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190523060003 Please note: Li Mengxuan is not a registered licensee of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and cannot engage in regulated activities in Hong Kong. Outperform ( Initiate ) Auto Tuhu-W Stock Connect (SH/SZ) (09690.HK) The automotive aftermarket has great potential, and there is broad space for the IAM leader January 8, 2024 ＃summary＃ Our view: Covering the Tuhu-W for the first time and giving it an "outperform" rating, with a target price of HKD 32.00. Tuhu is the largest integrated online and offline automotive service provider in China, with a leading position in store network and user base compared to its peers. The company's store network is easy to replicate and rapidly expand, continuously expanding new businesses and categories, with significant economies of scale. In addition, with the growth of car ownership, the age of passenger cars, and the increase in IAM market share, the scale of the IAM automotive service track continues to grow. The automotive service track has broad development space. As a leading company in the IAM automotive service industry, the company is expected to enjoy the dual benefits of increasing market size and share. We have given the company an "outperform" rating, with a target price of HKD 32.00, corresponding to 1.5x PS in 2024. The automotive service market has vast space and enormous potential: the continuous growth of the automotive market's ownership, mileage, and average age will drive the demand for downstream automotive service industries. It is expected that the industry scale will increase from 1.2 trillion yuan in 2022 to 1.9 trillion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 9.0%. The Chinese automotive service market is currently dominated by authorized dealer channels, and the increasing mileage and age of vehicles will lead to more frequent maintenance and repair needs. In addition, car owners are more inclined towards cost-effective and more diversified products and services, and the market share of IAM is expected to increase. However, the IAM automotive service market is currently highly fragmented and faces pain points such as poor customer experience, complex supply chains, and inefficient fulfillment processes in the long term. In addition, although the maintenance projects for new energy vehicles have decreased, the penetration rate of ownership is still slow. From a full lifecycle perspective, the total maintenance and upkeep expenses for pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are not