汽车后市场大有可为，IAM渠道龙头空间广阔

增持（gestionChange＃首次） 2024年1月8日 投资要点 我们的观点：首次覆盖途虎-W，给予“增持”评级，目标价32.00港元。途虎养车是中国最大的线上线下一体化汽车服务供应商，在门店网络与用户数量上较同行有领先地位。公司门店网络易于复制快速扩张，持续拓展新业务新品类，规模效应显著。此外，伴随汽车保有量增长、乘用车车龄增加、IAM市占率提升推动IAM汽车服务赛道规模持续增长。汽车服务赛道具有广阔发展空间。公司作为IAM汽车服务行业龙头公司，有望享受市场规模与份额提升的双重红利。我们首次覆盖给予公司“增持”评级，目标价32.00港元，对应2024年1.5倍PS。 汽车服务市场空间广阔，潜力巨大：汽车市场保有量、行驶里程数与平均车龄持续增长将带动下游汽车服务行业需求增长，根据灼识咨询预测，行业规模将由2022年1.2万亿元增长至2027年1.9万亿元，CAGR约9.0%。中国汽车服务市场目前以授权经销商渠道为主，行驶里程及车龄日渐增长将导致更频繁的保养和维修需求，且车主更加倾向于高性价比、更加多元化的产品和服务，IAM市场市场份额占比有望提升。但IAM汽车服务市场目前高度分散，长期面临客户体验差、供应链复杂、履约流程低效等痛点，行业整合空间巨大。此外，新能源车虽然保养项目减少，但保有量渗透率提升仍然缓慢。全生命周期来看纯电车及插混车维修保养总开支并不低于燃油车，且售前售后分离模式也将促进第三方体系发展。 ＃relatedReport＃相关报告 线上线下一体化的途虎模式，以用户需求为中心，解决供应链痛点，飞轮效应可期。途虎养车将零散的汽车服务需求聚集到一个平台上，上游直接与汽车零配件供应商合作，降低自身成本，提高门店盈利能力；下游通过自身强大的供应链和物流网络，为用户提供高效多样且标准统一的汽车服务。公司通过搭建数字化系统+仓储物流体系，革新供应体系提升效率；高效及可扩展的门店网络，确保标准化服务和快速扩张；规模扩大提升上游议价能力，发展定制产品及自有品牌持续降本；成本降低+效率提升，加盟途虎工场店盈利质量好；飞轮开始转动，将带动公司规模及盈利能力的进一步提升。此外，公司积极布局新能源领域，与主机厂及电池厂商展开合作。 海外研究 分析师：余小丽yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cnSFC：AXK331SAC：S0190518020003 李梦旋limengxuan@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190523060003请注意：李梦旋并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、电动车保有量提升快于预期、业务品类拓展不及预期。 Tuhu-W(09690.HK) Stock Connect(SH/SZ)The automotive aftermarket has great potential, and there isbroad space fortheIAM leaderJanuary8, 2024 Outperform (Initiate) Auto ＃summary＃Our view:Covering theTuhu-W for the first time and giving it an "outperform" rating, with a target price ofHKD32.00. Tuhuis the largest integrated online and offline automotive service provider in China, with aleading position in store network and user base compared to its peers. The company's store network is easy toreplicate and rapidly expand, continuously expanding new businesses and categories, with significanteconomies of scale. In addition, with the growth of car ownership, the age of passenger cars, and the increasein IAM market share, the scale of the IAM automotive service track continues to grow. The automotiveservice track has broad development space. As a leading company in the IAM automotive service industry, thecompany is expected to enjoy the dual benefits of increasing market size and share. We have given thecompany an "outperform" rating, with a target price ofHKD32.00, corresponding to 1.5xPS in 2024. The automotive service market has vast space and enormous potential:the continuous growth of theautomotive market's ownership, mileage, and average age will drive the demand for downstream automotiveservice industries. It is expected that the industry scale will increase from 1.2 trillion yuan in 2022 to 1.9trillion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 9.0%. The Chinese automotive service market is currentlydominated by authorized dealer channels, and the increasing mileage and age of vehicles will lead to morefrequent maintenance and repair needs. In addition, car owners are more inclined towards cost-effective andmore diversified products and services, and the market share of IAM is expected to increase. However, theIAM automotive service market is currently highly fragmented and faces pain points such as poor customerexperience, complex supply chains, and inefficient fulfillment processes in the long term. In addition,although the maintenance projects for new energy vehicles have decreased, the penetration rate of ownershipis still slow. From a full lifecycle perspective, the total maintenance and upkeep expenses for pure electricvehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are not lower than those for gasoline vehicles, and the pre-sales and after-sales separation model will also promote the development of third-party systems. Analyst YU Xiaoliyuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cnSFC：AXK331SAC：S0190518020003 LI Mengxuanlimengxuan@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190523060003 The integratedTuhumodel of online and offline, centered on user demand, solves supply chain pain points,and has a promising flywheel effect. Tuhu Yangche brings together scattered automotive service needs on aplatform, where upstream partners directly with automotive parts suppliers to reduce their own costs andimprove store profitability; Downstream, through its strong supply chain and logistics network, provides userswith efficient, diverse, and standardized automotive services. The company innovates its supply systemandimproves efficiency by building a digital system+warehousing and logistics system; Efficient and scalablestore network, ensuring standardized services and rapid expansion; Expanding scale to enhance upstreambargaining power, developing customized products and continuously reducing costs for self owned brands;Cost reduction+efficiency improvement, good profit quality from joining the Tuhu factory store; The flywheelbegins to rotate, which will further enhance the company's scale and profitability. In addition, the companyactively expands into the field of new energy and cooperates withOEMand battery manufacturers. Pleasenote:Li Mengxuan is not aregistered licensee of the Hong KongSecurities and Futures Commission andcannot engage in regulated activities i