香港及中國市場日報滙富快訊2024年1月5日今日焦點:►永旺信貸（900.HK）受益於強勁的旅遊需求和消費復蘇，FY2/24E將是擴張之年前三季度收入增長亮眼。2024財年前九個月收入達到12億港元，同比增長34.4%，超過我們此前預期的11億港元。其中，第三季度收入為4.1億港元，創歷史新高，同比增長30%，環比增長1.6%。淨利潤達2.82億港元，同比增長12.8%，符合我們預期。淨利率同比下降4個百分點至24%，主要是由於減值虧損及準備同比增加88%。永旺信貸在控制運營成本方面進展良好。回顧期內，市場費用/行政費用/員工成本分別占總收入7.0%/13.0%/13.5%，分別同比下降3.3/3.2/2.9個百分點。淨息差保持穩定。得益於及時回應市場需求的行銷計畫以及信用卡消費利率上調，2024財年首9個月淨利息收入同比上升29.7%至9.29億港元。融資方面，利息支出增加近1.8倍至7,600萬港元，平均融資成本為4.1%（vs.2023年前9個月為3.6%）。與2023財年相比，2024財年首9個月淨息差收窄近5.6個百分點至12.4%，我們認為這是由於季節性影響和較高的借款利率（vs.9M23為12.6%/9M22為14.0%）。客戶貸款及應收款項持續增長。截至2023年11月30日，客戶貸款及應收款項達到68億港元，環比增加5.8%。私人貸款應收賬款和信用卡應收賬款環比分別增長6.2%和5.7%。基於其積極的行銷計畫、目前強勁的旅行需求和管理層審慎的風險控制策略，我們預計第四季度末客戶貸款及應收款項總額將實現中個位數環比增長。我們的觀點：儘管香港經濟低迷，我們相信永旺信貸憑藉其精准的行銷策略、有效的成本控制和審慎的風險管理，將保持收入和利潤的穩定增長。考慮到第四季度有衆多假期，我們預計第四季度收入將同比增長中兩位數。我們預計其2024-2026財年收入分別為14.7/15.5/16.1億港元，複合年增長率為9.3%，對應淨利潤分別為3.88/4.18/4.36億港元。我們維持其公允價值為12.24港元，估值相當於約1.3倍FY2/24的市帳率。(劉恩妍)图1：财务摘要 截至2月28日(百萬港元) FY21A FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E 收入 1,090 1,050 1,232 1,468 1,553 1,608 淨利潤 302 343 374 388 418 436 每股盈利（港元） 0.720 0.818 0.892 0.925 0.999 1.041 每股盈利增長（%） -18.5% 13.6% 9.1% 3.7% 8.0% 4.1% 每股帳面淨值（港元） 8.17 8.68 9.30 9.56 9.86 10.16 市盈率 (x) 7.6 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.2 市帳率 (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 每股股息（港元） 0.40 0.44 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.52 股息率 (%) 7.3% 8.1% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5% 9.5% 股本回報率(%) 8.8% 9.4% 9.6% 9.7% 10.1% 10.2% 資料來源：公司數據，新華滙富研究 公允價格HKD 12.24最後价格（04/01/24）HKD 5.45恒生指数市值 (十亿港元/美元)52周范围 (港币)流通量 (%)资料来源：彭博股价表现资料来源：彭博股价表现1M6M12M绝对值 (%)2 5 19 绝对值 (美元,%)2 5 19 相对恒生指数 (%)0 17 37 资料来源：彭博公司背景资料来源：公司数据及新华汇富研究劉恩妍(852) 2283 7618ensley.liu@sunwahkingsway.com王學宏(852) 2283 7307howard.wong@sunwahkingsway.com31.52%Aeon信貸財務有限公司提供各類消費信貸融資服務，包括簽發信用卡、提供私人貸款、租賃融資等。16,646.0 2.28/0.294.95 - 5.686个月平均每日交易額（千美元）53 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%4.64.85.05.25.45.65.8Aug-19Feb-20HKD股价（左）相对恒生指数（右）本報告由Aeon Credit Services Asia (900.HK) 委託並贊助撰寫。 滙富金融服務有限公司-http://www.sunwahkingsway.com請務必參閱後文重要信息披露(如有)及免責聲明2024年1月5日Key financial statement data (Year-ended Feb 28)Profit & Loss (HK$ m)FY21AFY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26EFinancial RatiosFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26ERevenue1,0901,0501,2321,4681,5531,608Revenue y-o-y growth (%)(16.0)(4)17.319.25.83.5Interes t i ncome 9478791,0321,2641,3411,387Net profi t y-o-y growth (%)(19)13.6 9.1 3.7 8.0 4.1 Interes t expens e(42)(32)(44)(101)(97)(101)Operati ng profi t margi n (%)48.442.245.245.946.346.5Net interest income9058479881,1641,2431,286Net profi t margi n (%)27.6732.630.326.427.027.1Fees and commi s s i ons77103132134141148Net debt (cas h)/equi ty (%)8.411.944.050.942.834.9Handl i ng and l ate charges 666768697173Net debt/total as s ets (%)5.78.526.529.124.419.8Operating income 1,0211,0211,2041,3711,4591,510Current rati o (%)446.08 827.4408.8364.6366.4362.8Marketi ng expens es(72)(89)(118)(123)(131)(136)Di vi dend payout (%)565449525250Depreci ati on on ri ght of us e as s ets(55)(57)(58)(60)(62)(64)Source: Company data and Sunwah Ki ngs way Res earchStaff cos ts(157)(162)(199)(219)(224)(228)General admi ni s trati ve expens es(152)(172)(176)(185)(194)(204)Depreci ati on on property, pl ant and equi pment(32)(29)(29)(42)(62)(65)Other operati on expens es(68)(68)(67)(67)(67)(67)Operating profit527443557674719747Other gai ns and l os s es (169)(45)(107)(207)(215)(222)Cash flow (HK$ m)FY21AFY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26EProfit before tax 358398449467504525EBT358398449467504525Taxati on(56)(55)(76)(79)(86)(89)Depreci ati on & amorti zati on818483102124129Net profit302343374388418436Impai rment l os s es and i mpai rment al l owances recogni zed i n res pect of advances and recei vabl es 21194173268277287Source: Company data and Sunwah Ki ngs way Res earch Di vi dend i ncome and gai nson di s pos al of fi nanci alas s ets(0)(9)(1)(1)(1)(1)Balance Sheet (HK$ m)FY21AFY22AFY23AFY24EFY25EFY26EChange i n worki ng capi tal467(448)(1,691)(686)(211)(223)PP&E10710085179186192Tax pai d(46)(50)(14)(71)(77)(80)Ri ght-of-us e as s ets825943137143148Other operati ng cas hfl ow174(14)101010Advances and recei vabl es5897511,2401,4041,4531,503Operating activities1,08874(1,016)89627646Prepayments , depos i ts and other debtors163264626567Source: Company data and Sunwah Ki ngs way Res earchOther non-current as s ets8791158141146152Non-current assets8821,0321,5901,9241,9922,062Advances and recei vabl es3,2553,3434,4054,9785,1515,329Capex(33)(31)(57)(136)(70)(72)Prepayments , depos i ts and other debtors516467737880Decreas e (i ncreas e) i n ti me depos i ts wi th maturi ty of more than three months70(29)47(20)(20)(20)Ti me depos i ts13519313131313Other i nves ti ng cas hfl ow081111Bank bal ances and cas h7604573824658331,223Investing activities37(52)(9)(155)(89)(91)Current assets4,2014,0574,8685,0655,2415,422New l oans rai s ed and repayment of l oans(287)(78)1,06540796110Creditors and accruals264184203250264273Repayme