聚烯烃日报：现货交投平淡，期价小幅反弹

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。市场仍担忧OPEC+自愿减产执行力度，国际原油持续走弱，聚烯烃成本支撑走弱，期货价格均延续弱势，期货价格小幅反弹。市场对经济与需求改善偏谨慎，交投延续弱势。PE开工负荷已处于较高水平，PP开工率走低。丙烷下游需求偏弱，价格持续走弱，PDH制PP生产利润大幅修复，关注PDH装置开车重启计划。石化库存持续小幅累库，下游补库谨慎，去化速率偏慢。外盘聚烯烃价格无明显变化，内盘价格延续弱势，内外盘价差反弹，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口关闭。聚烯烃基本面维持弱势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 库存方面，石化库存69万吨，较上一日累库1万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在+120元/吨，PP华东基差在+10元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，市场仍担忧OPEC+自愿减产执行力度，国际原油持续走弱，聚烯烃成本支撑走弱，油制LL生产利润回升至盈亏平衡线上方。丙烷下游需求偏弱，价格持续走弱，PDH制PP生产利润修复，关注PDH装置开车重启计划。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 中景石化60PP装置重启，另一套30PP停车，北方华锦6PP装置以及兰州石化7PE装置停车，开工负荷降低，PE开工已处于较高水平，PP开工率走低。 进出口方面，外盘聚烯烃价格无明显变化，内盘价格延续弱势，内外盘价差反弹，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.....