月度策略报告：季节性淡季来临，成本亦支撑不足

2023年11月02日 季节性淡季来临，成本亦支撑不足 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所 能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 行情回顾：10月PTA主力合约受假期原油大跌的影响一路走低，结束了连续4个月的上涨。下半年以来的走势基本是随着原油波动，聚酯因客观原因从9月下旬开始降低负荷，但在10月中旬就已逐步恢复。总体来看，基本面出现过短时的变化，供需结构并没有大幅度改变。在经历9月份加工费持续亏损的情况后，10月份PTA加工费有所改善，回升至200-300元/吨的区间。PTA内外盘价格均下行，“银十”旺季并未预期般热烈。 相关报告 20230925《周报：聚酯如期减产，利润传导不畅》20231010《季报：水涨船高，甘露难寻》20231016《周报：聚酯产销表现平淡，成本支撑暂无亮点》20231023《周报：聚酯产销清淡未能淡化下游累库局面》 成本方面，支撑力度一般。虽然四季度原油供应有缺口，但中国及欧洲制造业景气度下滑反应初需求预期不佳，缺口的幅度是在明显收窄。所以基本面不会出现较大变化，地缘政治和宏观政策带来短期冲击将是常态。 供应方面，新投产与检修同在。虽然11月中旬海南逸盛250万吨PTA新产能计划投产、汉邦220万吨PTA装置可能重启，但加工利润的亏损无法忽略。逸盛宁波420万吨PTA装置11月检修，亚东石化70万吨装置按计划检修。 需求方面，季节性回落无法避免。未来虽有聚酯新产能投放，但难以抵消聚酯老装置减产、检修的影响。另外，面向印度市场的涤丝出口量受到BIS认证的影响也将大幅回落。虽然12月国外有圣诞假期，但预计对终端消费的提升仅是量的影响并非质的转变。 风险提示：巴以冲突加剧，PTA现货流通结构性紧张 目录 （一）原油：技术性超卖开启油价下跌，巴以冲突增加波动幅度.................................................................................... 5（二）PX：利润让渡给PTA环节，调油需求已结束......................................................................................................... 6（三）PTA：加工费亏损有所好转，开工相对稳定............................................................................................................ 8（四）PTA：周度产量有所回落，出口相对乐观.............................................................................................................. 10（五）聚酯：产销不及预期，复产相对谨慎...................................................................................................................... 11（六）终端织造：应季面料热销，采购心态谨慎.............................................................................................................. 14 图表目录 图1：PTA期货行情（手，元/吨）·······································································································4图2：PTA基差走势（元/吨）·············································································································4图3：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）·········································································································5图4：PX基差走势（元/吨）···············································································································5图5：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）······························································································5图6：PTA上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）······························································································5图7：PX国内开工率（%）················································································································7图8：PX加工费（美元/吨）···············································································································7图9：PXN价差走势·························································································································7图10：PX-MX价差走势····················································································································7图11：PX加工利润（美元/吨）··········································································································8图12：PX社会库存（千吨）··············································································································8图13：PTA现货加工费情况（元/吨）··································································································8图14：PTA现货加工费月均对比（元/吨）·····························································································8图15：PTA加工利润情况（元/吨）·····································································································9图16：国内PTA开工率（%）············································································································9图17：PTA周度社会库存（千吨）·····································································································10图18：国内PTA工厂库存天数（天）··································································································10图19：国内PTA周度产量（万吨）·····································································································11图20：PTA出口情况（万吨）···········································································································11图21：聚酯工厂开工情况（%）·········································································································12图22：聚酯产销情况（%）···············································································································12图23涤纶长丝装置负荷情况（%）·····································································································13图24：涤纶长丝POY库存天数（天）·································································································13图25涤纶长丝DTY库存天数（天）···································································································13图26：涤纶长丝FDY库存天数（天）·································································································13图27涤纶短纤装置负荷情况（%）·····································································································13图28：涤纶短纤库存天数（天）·······························································································