聚烯烃日报：原油延续弱势，聚烯烃平稳运行

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 美联储维持基准利率水平不变，符合市场预期，化工版块表现较为平稳。国际油价延续弱势，聚烯烃窄幅震荡，基差变化不大。丙烷持续走强，PDH制PP亏损较深，PDH装置亏损性检修恐将持续。聚烯烃油头生产利润持续修复，成本端支撑走弱，国内装置检修较多，开工率维持低位。需求延续弱势，交投清淡。聚烯烃外盘价格维持稳定，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。建议暂观望。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存64.5万吨，相比前一日去库3.5万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+30元/吨，PP华东基差在-10元/吨，基差变化不大。 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油延续弱势，油制聚烯烃的生产利润修复，聚烯烃成本支撑走弱。丙烷持续走强，PDH制PP生产利润亏损较深，PDH装置亏损性检修恐将持续。 聚烯烃装置检修较多，目前开工维持较低水平，检修损失量增加。中天合创35 PP装置1号停车小修，预计三天，PP装置开工率持续降低，PE装置开工率未变化。 进出口方面，PE进口利润维持盈亏平衡线之上，PE进口窗口开启，PP进口窗口维持关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 宏观政策力度，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................