聚烯烃周报：原油大幅反弹，聚烯烃偏弱震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议观望。本周聚烯烃大幅走弱后企稳，基差走强，现货价格走弱，估值偏低。传统开工旺季落空，下游总体需求一般，驱动偏弱。受巴以冲突影响，Brent原油价格再度冲高90美元/桶，不确定性较大，原油制聚烯烃生产利润亏损加剧。节后检修装置增多，总体开工率下降，关注宁波金发二线40PP投产计划，进口窗口均依然关闭。上游库存节后正常去库，中游库存去化速率偏慢。预计聚烯烃维持窄幅震荡。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存78万吨，较上周去库8万吨，节后正常去库。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差+80，PP华东基差+70，基差小幅走强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，受巴以冲突影响，中东局势紧张，原油再度反弹，原油制聚烯烃生产利润亏损加剧，丙烷价格回调，PDH制PP利润修复。PE开工率92.8%（-1.6%），PP开工率90.7%（-0.2%），节后较多装置停车检修，聚烯烃开工率下降，另有宁波金发二线40 PP装置计划十月中下旬投产。 进出口方面，进口窗口均依然关闭，内外盘价差小幅走高。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工季节性提升2%，包装膜恢复情况一般，开工率未变；PP下游塑编开工降低2%，BOPP膜开工率小幅上升1%，订单依然偏弱，传统开工旺季落空，总体需求一般。 ■策略 建议观望。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃库存.......................................................................................................................................................................................11 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................................8图19:LL美湾FOB-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨...............................................................................................................................8图20:LL东南亚CFR-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨...........................................................................................