Horizon Construction Development (9930 HK) | 20 September 2023 建银国际证券 2 成长行业中的领头羊。宏信建发的乐观前景源于（1）建筑设备租赁需求的长期上升趋势，主要由下游行业对高安全标准、低劳动力及设备维护成本以及高效率等日益增长的需求推动，以及（2）真实前景，即随着整合增加，通过占有更多份额在分散市场中实现高于平均水平的增长。我们认为宏信建发在 2021-22年的每股收益复合年增长率为 22%，具有强大的竞争优势以支持2023-24年高达32%的每股收益复合年增长率。我们给予该股优于大市评级，目标价为 4.20 港元。 充足的资源推动扩张和利润增长。 截至2023年6月末，宏信建发运营约16万辆高空作业平台，体量为中国最大。2022年占据30.6%的市场份额。在母公司的支持下，宏信建发享有低成本融资，2023 年上半年平均年化借贷成本为4.27%，相对同业具有优势。 它拥有业内最大的数字化服务网络，能够快速响应客户需求，提供全面的服务能力，提升客户体验。宏信建发将在自持和轻资产两种模式下进一步扩大设备量以及服务网络，根据我们的预测，这将支持2023-24年22%的收入和32%的每股收益复合年增长率。 估值和投资风险。基于11.5倍 2023 年市盈率我们得出宏信建发4.20 港元的目标价。目标倍数考虑了当前 A/H 股平均估值折价和宏信建发的高成长属性。 催化剂包括强劲的盈利增长和更高的利润率。 风险主要包括（1）建筑活动和设备租赁需求减弱； (2) 租价下跌拖累利润率和盈利； (3) 上市历史较短，股票交易波动可能较高。工程机械 | 2023 年 9月20日 宏信建发| 9930 HK 成长行业中的领头羊 李嵘, CFA (852) 3911 8270 lirong@ccbintl.com 李睿 (852) 3911 8245 katherineli@ccbintl.com 交易数据 52周股价高低 港币2.35-4.93 市值 (百万美元) 1,553 自由流通股数(百万股) 3,197 自由流通股份 (%) 14 3个月日均成交股数 (百万股) 0.3 3个月日均成交额 (百万美元) 0.1 12个月预期回报率 (%) 11 资料来源: 彭博, 建银国际证券预测 股价相对于国企指数 资料来源: 彭博 股价表现 表现区间 一个月 三个月 十二个月 绝对表现 38 44 不适用 相对于国企指数(%) 39 49 不适用 资料来源: 彭博 ► 核心竞争力源于专业经验、资金和国企优势 ► 2023-24年EPS复合年增长率预计为 32%；首次评级：优于大市，目标价：港币4.20 ► ► ► 优于大市 (首次覆盖) 现价: 目标价: 港币3.80  港币4.20 (截至2023年9月20日) (首次覆盖) 预测和估值 截至12月31日 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 收入(百万人民币) 3,664 6,141 7,878 9,800 11,780 同比(%) N/A 68 28 24 20 净利润 (百万人民币) 448 710 667 986 1,185 同比(%) N/A 58 (6) 48 20 基本每股收益 (人民币) 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.34 0.41 同比(%) N/A 46 (10) 45 20 市盈率 (倍) 19.8 13.6 15.1 10.4 8.7 市净率 (倍) 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 股本回报率(%) 8.5 12.5 10.5 11.3 10.4 杠杆比率(%) 61.2 74.2 74.2 60.4 59.4 资料来源: 彭博, 建银国际证券预测 012345605-202307-202308-202309-2023(港元)宏信建发(9930 HK)国企指数 Horizon Construction Development (9930 HK) | 20 September 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 3 Rating definitions: Outperform (O) – expected return > 10% over the next twelve months Neutral (N) – expected return between -10% and 10% over the next twelve months Underperform (U) – expected return < -10% over the next twelve months Analyst certification: The author(s) of this document, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner; (ii) no part of any of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this document; and (iii) he/she receives no insider information/non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations made by him. The author(s) of this document further confirm that (i) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) (as defined in the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) has dealt in/traded or will deal in /trade the securities covered in this document in a manner contrary to his/her outstanding recommendation, or neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this document within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this document or will so deal in or trade such securities within 3 business days after the date of issue of this document; (ii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) serves as an officer of any of the companies covered in this document; and (iii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has any financial interests in the securities covered in this document. CCBI Group has had an investment banking relationship with Horizon Construction Development [9930 HK]. Disclaimers: This document is prepared by CCB International Securities Limited. CCB International Securities Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CCB International (Holdings) Limited (“CCBIH”) and China Construction Bank Corporation (“CCB”). Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but CCB International Securities Limited, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively “CCBIS”) do not guarantee, represent and warrant (either express or implied) its completeness or accuracy or appropriateness for any purpose or any person whatsoever. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. CCBIS seeks to update its research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent it from doing so. Besides certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate according to the analyst's judgment. Forecasts, projections and valuations are inherently speculative in nature and may be based on a number of contingencies. Readers should not regard the inclusion of any forecasts, proje