成长行业中的领头羊

李嵘,CFA(852)3911 8270lirong@ccbintl.com 宏信建发|9930HK 李睿(852)3911 8245katherineli@ccbintl.com 成长行业中的领头羊 ►优于大市 ►核心竞争力源于专业经验、资金和国企优势 ►2023-24年EPS复合年增长率预计为32%；首次评级：优于大市，目标价：港币4.20 ►►现价:目标价:港币3.80港币4.20(截至2023年9月20日)(首次覆盖) 成长行业中的领头羊。宏信建发的乐观前景源于（1）建筑设备租赁需求的长期上升趋势，主要由下游行业对高安全标准、低劳动力及设备维护成本以及高效率等日益增长的需求推动，以及（2）真实前景，即随着整合增加，通过占有更多份额在分散市场中实现高于平均水平的增长。我们认为宏信建发在2021-22年的每股收益复合年增长率为22%，具有强大的竞争优势以支持2023-24年高达32%的每股收益复合年增长率。我们给予该股优于大市评级，目标价为4.20港元。 52周股价高低港币2.35-4.93市值(百万美元)1,553自由流通股数(百万股)3,197自由流通股份(%)143个月日均成交股数(百万股)0.33个月日均成交额(百万美元)0.112个月预期回报率(%)11资料来源:彭博,建银国际证券预测 充足的资源推动扩张和利润增长。截至2023年6月末，宏信建发运营约16万辆高空作业平台，体量为中国最大。2022年占据30.6%的市场份额。在母公司的支持下，宏信建发享有低成本融资，2023年上半年平均年化借贷成本为4.27%，相对同业具有优势。它拥有业内最大的数字化服务网络，能够快速响应客户需求，提供全面的服务能力，提升客户体验。宏信建发将在自持和轻资产两种模式下进一步扩大设备量以及服务网络，根据我们的预测，这将支持2023-24年22%的收入和32%的每股收益复合年增长率。 估值和投资风险。基于11.5倍2023年市盈率我们得出宏信建发4.20港元的目标价。目标倍数考虑了当前A/H股平均估值折价和宏信建发的高成长属性。催化剂包括强劲的盈利增长和更高的利润率。风险主要包括（1）建筑活动和设备租赁需求减弱；(2)租价下跌拖累利润率和盈利；(3)上市历史较短，股票交易波动可能较高。 资料来源:彭博 Rating definitions: Outperform (O)–expected return > 10% over the next twelve monthsNeutral (N)–expected returnbetween-10% and 10% over the next twelve monthsUnderperform (U)–expected return <-10% over the next twelve months Analyst certification: The author(s) of this document, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his/her personalviews about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner; (ii) no part of anyof his/hercompensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this document; and(iii) he/she receives no insider information/non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which mayinfluence the recommendations made by him. The author(s) of this document further confirm that (i) neither he/she nor his/herrespective associate(s) (as defined in the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and FuturesCommission issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) hasdealt in/traded or will deal in /trade the securities coveredin this document in a manner contrary to his/her outstanding recommendation, or neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s)has dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this document within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this document orwill so deal in or trade such securities within 3 business days after the date of issue of this document; (ii) neither he/shenor his/herrespective associate(s) serves as an officer of any of the companies covered in this document; and (iii) neither he/she nor his/herrespective associate(s) has any financial interests in the securities covered in this document. CCBI Group has hadaninvestment banking relationship withHorizon Construction Development[9930 HK]. Disclaimers: This document is prepared by CCB International Securities Limited. CCB International Securities Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary ofCCB International (Holdings) Limited (“CCBIH”) and China Construction BankCorporation (“CCB”). Information herein has beenobtained from sources believed to be reliable but CCB International Securities Limited, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively“CCBIS”) do not guarantee, represent and warrant (either express or implied) its completeness or accuracy or appropriateness for anypurpose or any person whatsoever. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this document and are subjectto change without notice. CCBIS seeks to update its research asappropriate, but various regulations may prevent it from doing so.Besides certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals asappropriate according to the analyst's judgment. Forecasts, projections and valuations are inherently speculative in nature and maybe based on a number of contingencies. Readers should not regard the inclusion of any forecasts, projections and valuations in thisdocument as a representation or warranty by oron behalf of CCBIS that these forecasts, projections or valuations or their underlyingassumptions will be achieved. Investment involves risk and past performance is not indicative of future results. Informationin thisdocument is not intended to constitute or be construed as legal, financial, accounting, business, investment, tax or any professionaladvice for any prospective investors and should not be relied upon in that regard. This document is for informational purposes only andshould not be treatedas an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products, investments, securities, trading strategies orfinancial instruments of any kind in any jurisdiction. CCBIS makes no representations on the availability of the securities covered in thisdocument (or related investment) to the recipients. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sa