全球绿氢展望2023(英文版)

Green hydrogen: Energizing the path to net zeroDeloitte’s 2023 global green hydrogen outlook Foreword 03Executive Summary 04The critical role of clean hydrogen on the way to climate neutrality 05The emerging green hydrogen economy: Deloitte’s outlook 05Global trade connects the dots 06Redirecting investments from fossil fuels to clean hydrogen 06Future-focused policy action 07Introduction. Deloitte’s outlook on the global clean hydrogen market 08Part 1. Envisioning a 600 million metric ton market 12Climate policy helps shape the market 15Part 2. Developing the clean hydrogen value chain 18Assessing clean hydrogen supply opportunities 19Overcoming bottlenecks for green hydrogen production 24Implications for trade opportunities 25The importance of transport infrastructure 27Part 3. The emergence of a global clean hydrogen market 30A market set for fast growth 32Green hydrogen dominates the market from the beginning 33Global trade is mostly about derivatives 34Global trade connects key exporting and importing hubs 36Part 4. One new market, multiple benefits 40Economic development 41Efficiency gains from free trade 43Enhanced energy security 44Part 5. Over US$9 trillion of investment needed 46Investments should happen globally 47Transport and conversion assets should not be neglected 49Investments should take place now 50Part 6. A call for action 52Help lay the foundations for a climate- oriented market 53Create a business case 54Ensure long-term resilience 55Balancing competition and cooperation 55Appendix: The Hydrogen Pathway Exploration (HyPE) model 56Upstream representation: hydrogen production 57Midstream transport representation 61Calculation of country-specific cost of capital 65Endnotes 66Authors 70Global contacts 72Deloitte Economics Institute 73Deloitte Center for Sustainable Progress 74 ForewordWhen it comes to tackling climate change, the world is rapidly moving from ambition to action. In just the past few years, private companies, research institutions, regulators, financiers, and governments have accelerated in the race to decarbonize organizations, supply chains, sectors, and, indeed, economies. This newfound zeal finds its motivation in the very crucible of innovation: necessity—the necessity of tackling climate change, the necessity for energy security, the necessity for geopolitical recalibration.The calls for action have finally found voice. Deloitte’s Turning Point analysis pointed to economic arguments for action on climate change—from a regional perspective and a global perspective. This economic and commercial perspective has highlighted the structural and transformative challenge of climate change and advanced the energy transition as a necessary condition for growth and sustainable development.Globally, the movement toward net-zero is now broadly acknowledged, while debate continues around the pace and scale of change across industries and nation-states. Yet, the crescendo of attention to the common concern to humankind poised by climate change is juxtaposed with a narrowing window for action highlighted by scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the international community. At its core, a shift in the energy mix will transform economies’ production systems. In terms of scale, it truly can be that profound. The speed of transformation will be dictated by the calculus of physical and economic damages of climate change, alongside the costs to decarbonize, influenced by the interplay of the supply and demand of old and new energy. In the end, the constant is an inevitability of change.While the greatest energy mix switch will be toward electricity from renewable sources, 15% to 30% of future energy needs is likely to be satisfied by hydrogen, a function of sectors that may not be able to electrify easily (hard-to-abate sectors) and of the creation of additional demand from new products and services—for example, green steel. In the context of the timeframe for the world to achieve net-zero, hydrogen, and in particular green hydrogen, gains significant currency.Using projections from Deloitte Economics Institute’s Hydrogen Pathway Explorer (HyPE) model, this report offers a comprehensive analysis of the development of renewable hydrogen to energize the global economy toward net-zero by 2050. The development of green hydrogen is a key element in the transition pathway from a high-emissions intensive energy system to a net-zero economy by 2050.The significance o