聚烯烃日报：原油回落，聚烯烃盘面下跌

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 原油价格回落，整个化工板块偏弱运行，聚烯烃也大幅下跌。聚烯烃现货价格小幅下跌，基差有所走强，下游交投谨慎，维持刚需采购。聚烯烃生产利润维持较大亏损，成本端支撑较强。开工率提升至较高水平，新增产能集中投放，聚烯烃供应端压力较大。石化库存小幅去库，上游库存压力不大。虽部分下游产品缓慢恢复，但传统“金九银十”旺季不及预期。LL进口窗口持续打开，PP拉丝进口利润跌破盈亏平衡线。预计聚烯烃偏震荡。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 库存方面，石化库存60万吨，相比前一日减少2.5万吨，小幅去库。 基差方面，LL华东基差在+30元/吨，PP华东基差在-10元/吨，基差走强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油仍强势，LL与PP油头制法均维持大幅亏损，丙烷跟随原油，PDH制PP利润仍亏损较大。 聚烯烃新增产能集中投放，供应压力较大。开工负荷持续回升。茂名石化22万吨PE装置停车，PE开工率已至较高水平；茂名石化30万吨PE装置重启，绍兴三圆30万吨PP装置停车，PP开工保持中等水平。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP拉丝进口利润跌破盈亏平衡线。 ■策略 （1）单边：暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................