打磨精细化供应链管理能力，盈利逆势提升

Table_First Table_First|Table_ReportType !"#$ !"%&'( ! " # $ % & Table_First|Table_Summary 湖南裕能（001301.SZ） !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234!"#$投资要点： Ø Q2!"#$%&'() 2023H1*+,-./231.8012#+64%3, - 4 5 6 7 812.4012#-24%39:4567812.2012#-27%;:<=>?@ABC;2023Q2*+,-./100012#+25%2$-24%3,-456789.57012#+52%2$+241%39:456789.52012#+45%2$+256%; Ø DEFGHI+JKLMNO2PQR7() 2023H1STUVWX21.6YQ2Z[\]^PQ9:4567?0.56Y1/Q;=>_`*+HIabcdefghiTVjklmno2pqLrDEsFGHItuvJKsLMNO2wxyz{|}~ÄÅÇÉ2ÑÖÜiTVLMáàsâÉ2äãOåçsâÉéèwxê]; Ø ëíìîïX2ñUVóîòôöõq *+úùû$STUVìîïX22023H1*+dü†ëí°¢sìî£%§()•30%¶ß;STñUVáà2*+®©™ ́ ̈≠ÆØ∞±≤32YQìí±≤2ìî§≥`¥Xμ∂ì∑∏; Ø R7Æπä∫ª±ºΩ Ææ*+2023-2025ø4567¿¡¬22.5/27.6/36.0012#%≠ù-25%/23%/30%2√©ƒjedPE?13/11/8≈;∆«»...*+2023ø20≈PE2e d À j59.321/ƒ2ÃwÕŒ/œ–—; Ø “”(‘Ω ’÷◊pÆÿŸìílm⁄¤Ÿåç‹›’÷noŸfifljkno‡; Table_First|Table_Summary|Table_Excel1 财务数据和估值 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入（百万元） 7,068 42,790 42,649 51,052 57,752 增长率 639% 505% 0% 20% 13% 净利润（百万元） 1,184 3,007 2,246 2,759 3,597 增长率 2923% 154% -25% 23% 30% EPS（元/股） 1.56 3.97 2.97 3.64 4.75 市盈率（P/E） 25.4 10.0 13.4 10.9 8.3 市净率（P/B） 11.1 5.3 2.5 2.0 1.6 数据来源：公司公告、华福证券研究所 Table_First|Table_ReportDate !"#$%&'( 2023)08*29+ Table_First|Table_Rating 56789:;<4当前价格： 39.66元 目标价格： 59.32元 Table_First|Table_MarketInfo ,-./ !"#$%&"#'()"* 757/133 !+,$%&+,'()-* 30146/5276 ."/01'-* 13.18 01234'5* 60.14 6789:$9;'-* 53.11/38.82 Table_First|Table_Chart 一年内股价相对走势 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 012 34 <=>?@ABS0210522050005 CDBdengwei3787@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 012 567 <=>?@ABS0210122070051 CDB ybl3804@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_RelateReport 89:; EFGHIJKBLMNOPQRS0T?UVWXYZ[\NO]^_2023.7.10 !"#$%%&'()%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%*+,-./01234567%% -30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2023-022023-022023-022023-032023-032023-032023-032023-042023-042023-042023-042023-052023-052023-052023-052023-052023-062023-062023-062023-062023-07湖南裕能沪深300 表1：财务预测摘要 Table_Excel2 89:;< 利润表 `a:()- 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 单位:百万元 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E bc0de1,045 2,132 2,553 2,888 f=ghe42,790 42,649 51,052 57,752 igjkRlme7,065 9,065 11,820 14,468 f=n#e37,451 37,643 44,870 50,144 oplme419 421 502 561 qdRrse164 164 196 222 tbe4,971 5,726 6,826 7,628 uvwxe22 64 128 145 yz01e0 0 0 0 {|wxe315 762 963 1,147 }~%01e4,581 4,566 5,466 6,183 ÄÅwxe456 625 912 1,083 %01yÇe18,082 21,911 27,167 31,727 ÉÑwxe246 226 208 253 ÖÜ"áà0e37 37 37 37 âxä,ãåe-329 -329 -329 -329 Vç01e6,443 7,608 9,123 10,441 01ä,ãåe-158 -158 -158 -158 éèêëe1,035 1,035 1,035 1,035 íìî,ïgñe0 0 0 0 óò01e551 672 818 1,000 à0gñe-77 0 0 0 ôöe180 180 180 180 }~gñe21 21 21 21 }~õ%01e108 108 108 108 f=úùe3,593 2,698 3,309 4,292 õ%01yÇe8,353 9,640 11,300 12,800 f=ûghe3 0 1 7 01yÇe26,434 31,551 38,467 44,528 f=ûü†e50 50 57 57 °Ü¢me2,466 954 2,478 2,981 úù!£e3,546 2,648 3,253 4,242 ipjkRlme11,392 11,451 13,649 15,253 §•qe540 403 495 646 ogm¶e0 0 0 0 /úùe3,006 2,245 2,758 3,596 yz23e1,098 1,094 1,310 1,481 ß®"©ãñe-1 -1 -1 -1 }~ipme133 133 133 133 ™ ́ ̈í≠/úùe3,007 2,246 2,759 3,597 }~%23e1,659 1,926 2,146 2,332 ÆØ∞'±≤*e3.97 2.97 3.64 4.75 %23yÇe16,748 15,558 19,716 22,180 e ÖÜ¢me3,271 3,271 3,271 3,271 主要财务比率 ip3≥e0 0 0 0 e2022Ae2023Ee2024Ee2025Ee}~õ%23e700 700 700 700 nÖI¥e õ%23yÇe3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 f=ghμÖ4e505.4% -0.3% 19.7% 13.1% 23yÇe20,720 19,529 23,688 26,152 Æ∂∑∏μÖ4e158.8% -24.2% 20.4% 29.9% ™ ́ ̈í≠§π∫áñe5,714 12,022 14,781 18,378 ™ ̈/úùμÖ4e154.0% -25.3% 22.8% 30.4% ß®"©áñe0 0 -1 -2 ªúI¥e §π∫áñyÇe5,714 12,022 14,779 18,376 ºú4e12.5% 11.7% 12.1% 13.2% 23Ω"©áñe26,434 31,551 38,467 44,528 /ú4e7.0% 5.3% 5.4% 6.2% e æøÆe52.6% 18.7% 18.7% 19.6% 现金流量表 æø∑¿e30.9% 17.0% 16.4% 17.8% 单位:百万元 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E ¡3I¥e ¬f√ƒd%e-2,783 939 1,817 2,848 01234e78.4% 61.9% 61.6% 58.7% ƒdgñe3,853 3,361 4,018 5,112 %≈4e1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 tb∆«e-4,072 -755 -1,099 -802 »≈4e0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 ¬f...ig∆«e-4,464 -1,845 -2,678 -2,549 f I¥e ¬f...ip∆«e9,043 58 2,198 1,604 !01ÀÃ4e1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 }~∆«e-7,143 120 -622 -518 iglmÀÃÕ®e36 62 68 77 à0√ƒd%e-2,169 -2,176 -2,713 -2,763 tbÀÃÕ®e28 51 50 52 0#ü†e-5,399 -2,176 -2,713 -2,763 ."Œœ'-*e "áà0e-37 0 0 0 ."gñe3.97 2.97 3.64 4.75 }~ÖÜ01ï–e3,267 0 0 0 ."¬fƒd%e-3.68 1.24 2.40 3.76 —0√ƒd%e5,193 2,324 1,316 250 ."/01e7.55 15.88 19.52 24.27 ¢mμse4,740 -1,512 1,524 503 “,≈4e "úRú”üpe-149 -265 -265 -305 Ø$Æe10 13 11 8 "©—0e2 4,288 0 0 Ø$∂e5 2 2 2 }~∆«e600 -187 57 52 Æ‘$Æ∂∑∏’÷e58 68 57 44 ®k◊ÿBí≠Ÿ⁄¤‹›>≥Äfi§ !"#$%%&'() 3 *+,-./01234567 '()*+,|-./0 012<= =>?@ABCD$EFGH3CDI8JKL$8MNOPQCDRSTUVWX3Y$Z[U\]^_`ab?=/0c=/0defgahij=>3kl`mc=>nopUnpUqrnFp=/0A3?stuvwx`myz{x|{}~ÄÅÇ3ÉÑc >?<= ÖÜCD@áàâäãVåçé“=âä”è?@ABCêFëí3CDI8JK$+8Mc=/0ìî=âä3_ïñóc=âänFp{}>}~=/0yòôQ_ïcöÄõúåU=âänùÄ>pñó=/0A3Äûü†°¢3Ä£§:Äàc =/03"•¶ß®©=âä™Qí"3â ́8 ̈U≠Æâ ́8 ̈3fgØ∞±≤Ø≥ô&¥μ:àU=âä∞ôkl>∂ù≠Æ"•n∑Ä∏Cc=/0A38 ̈^vw∞π∫ìhi=âä©&¥=/0ªº3ΩæUø¿í¡F¬õú3√ƒy≈≤cön∆«»U=âäí&b.