人民币汇率周报：此轮人民币贬值行情是否已结束？

I 2023717 - 20111290 Z0017101 1007. 1571416:307. 13257.14391.40%1.53%6CPIP P I620214 7177217.067.21 I 2023717 i 1. ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 ...................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3 ........................................................................................................ 3 2. ............................................................................................. 4 2.1 - .............................................................................. 4 2.2 ................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 .......................................................................................... 4 2.2.2 .......................................................................................... 6 2.2.3 ...................................................................................... 7 2.2.4 ...................................................................................... 8 2.3 ............................................................................................. 8 2.3.1 ........................................................................ 8 2.3.2 .................................................................... 9 3. ...................................................................................... 9 3.1 ............................................................................... 9 3.2 ...................................................................... 14 ............................................................................................. 14 ............................................................................................... 14 ...................................................................................................... 15 I 2023717 ii ................................................................................................................ 16 ............................................................................................................. 17 ......................................................................................................... 17 ............................................................................................................. 18 I 2023717 1 1. 1.1 2023710-714CFETSBISSDR71416:30 1.1.1 7.2054 7.1926 7.1318 7.1318 -1.021% USDCNY 7.2336 7.2331 7.1325 7.1325 -1.398% USDCNH 7.2552 7.2370 7.1439 7.1439 -1.534% 142.2463 141.5562 138.1674 138.7481 -2.459% 1.0962 1.1236 1.0992 1.1236 2.504% 1.2837 1.3111 1.2837 1.3111 2.141% 102.2750 101.9707 99.7617 99.9585 -2.265% CFETS 96.84 —— —— 95.94 -0.929% (BIS) 101.06 —— —— 100.23 -0.821% (SDR) 92.16 —— —— 91.77 -0.423% iFinD 1007.1571416:307.13257.14391.40%1.53%6CPIPPI620214 I 2023717 2 1.1.12023710-714 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 698.0099.00100.00101.00102.00103.00104.00105.00106.006.756.856.957.057.157.252023-03-172023-04-172023-05-172023-06-17: I 2023717 3 CPICPICPICPIPPI717—7217.06—7.21 1.2.2 1.2.3 I 2023717 4 2. 2.1 - 7147.1318736 2.1.1 1 2 -736 1040 215 -1991 -204 1639 -96 -1747 Ref initiv Bloomberg 2.2.1 2.2.2 Ref initiv Bloomberg Ref initiv Bloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Ref initiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Ref initiv调整后数据计算 (0.150)(0.100)(0.050)0.0000.0500.1000.150(0.14)(0.12)(0.10)(0.08)(0.06)(0.04)(0.02)0.000.020.040.066.606.706.806.907.007.107.207.307.40202 2/9 /20202 2/1 0/2 0202 2/1 1/2 0202 2/1 2/2 0202 3/1 /20202 3/2 /20202 3/3 /20202 3/4 /20202 3/5 /20202 3/6 /205USDCNY16:30 I 2023717 5 2.2.3 I 2023717 6 iFinD 2.2.2 2.2.4 -400.00-200.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.002021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-05:Delta I 2023717 7 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 Bloomberg 6.206.406.606.807.007.207.40-400-300-200-10001002003004005002021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-06银行结售汇差额:当月值银行代客远期净结汇:当月值即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月（右轴）(0.08)(0.06)(0.04)(0.02)0.000.020.040.060.086.206.406.606.807.007.207.407.602019/7/222020/7/222021/7/222022/7/22CNH-CNYUSDCNHUSDCNY I 2023717 8 2.2.4 714NDF6.9411751USDCNY25Delta1 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% Bloomberg iFin