人民币汇率周报：人民币汇率是否存在持续贬值压力？

I 2023522 - 20111290 Z0017101 522-5266.90-7.09 I 2023522 i 1 .................................................................................... 1 1.1 ...................................................................................... 1 1.2 .................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 .......................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 .......................................................................................... 2 1.3 ..................................................................................................... 3 2 ........................................................................................... 4 2.1 - .......................................................................... 4 2.2 ............................................................................... 4 2.2.1 ................................................................................... 4 2.2.2 ................................................................................... 5 2.2.3 ............................................................................... 6 2.2.4 ............................................................................... 7 2.3 .......................................................................................... 7 2.3.1 ................................................................. 7 2.3.2 ............................................................. 8 3 .................................................................................... 9 3.1 ........................................................................... 9 3.2 .................................................................. 13 ................................................................................................ 15 ........................................................................................... 15 .................................................................................................. 16 I 2023522 ii ............................................................................................................. 17 .......................................................................................................... 18 ...................................................................................................... 18 ................................................................................................................. 19 I 2023522 1 1 1.1 2023515-519CFETSBISSDR51916:30 1.1.1 6.9481 7.0356 6.9506 7.0356 1.259% USDCNY 6.9506 7.0294 6.9525 7.0235 1.049% USDCNH 6.9545 7.0544 6.9659 7.0544 1.436% 135.6236 138.4926 136.0692 137.7102 1.538% 1.0856 1.0874 1.0775 1.0819 -0.342% 1.2463 1.2524 1.2422 1.2461 -0.013% 102.7041 103.5478 102.4340 103.2044 0.487% CFETS 99.01 —— —— (BIS) 103.55 —— —— (SDR) 95.32 —— —— iFinD 75167 I 2023522 2 1.1.12023515-519 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 Wind 1.2 1.2.1 I 2023522 3 522-5266.90-7.09 1.3 7 1.4 I 2023522 4 2 2.1 - 5197.0356875 2.1.1 1 2 875 587 304 -16 367 250 121 -4 Refinitiv Bloomberg 2.2.1 2.2.2 Refinitiv Bloomberg Refinitiv Bloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 5193-36 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 3 =- I 2023522 5 2.2.3 iFinD 2.2.2 472%8%71%3%455 2.2.4 I 2023522 6 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 iFinD 6.206.406.606.807.007.207.40-400.00-300.00-200.00-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.002021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-04银行结售汇差额:当月值银行代客远期净结汇:当月值即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月 I 2023522 7 2.2.4 519NDF6.8421346USDCNY25Delta 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% Bloomberg Bloomberg 2.3 2.3.1 51923067.0070653-482228 I 2023522 8 2.3.1 2.3.2 Bloomberg Bloomberg 2.3.2 51923067.0006556-418141 2.3.3 2.3.4 Bloomberg Bloomberg (0.10)(0.05)0.000.050.100.150.206.506.606.706.806.907.007.10基差（右轴）成交价USDCNH I 2023522 9 3 3.1 3.1.1 1. 5-31.83-2.510.8 2. 40.4%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4% 3. 5NAHB50202274545 4. 40.5%1%0.1%0.8%30.1%0.2% 5. 2023FOMC6 6. 2% I 2023522 10 3.1.1 1. GDPGDP1.1%1.6%5.8%2.8% 2. 34.1%202042.5%1.5%1.4%0.9%2% 3. 5ZEW-9.46.4-27.5-30.2GDP1.3%1.3%1.3%0.1%0.1%0.1% 4. 5ZEW-10.7-5.34.1-34.8-37-32.5 5. 4CPI7%7%7%0.6%0.7%0.7% 6. ILO7.1%20207.1%7.2%7.1% 7. 4PPI4.1%4%7.5%6.7%0.3%0.5%2.6%1.4% I 2023522 11 1. CPICPI 2. 4554 3. 45.6%1.713.5%4.318.4%7.81-44.7%1-30.46.2%8.8% 4. 45.2%0.116-2420.4% 5. 4706236221 6. 2023 I 2023522 12 3.1.1 7. 1. 3ILO3.9%3.8%3.8%44%3.9% 1. 3 2. 4PMI52.952.5PMI55.454.9 3. GDP0.4%1.6%3GDP1.7%7.1%202