火锅帝国

Haidilao (6862 HK) | 30 May 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 1 不断增长的中国火锅市场。火锅是最具代表性的中国菜系之一。 2013-2022 年，中国火锅市场的复合年增长率为 7.7%。根据艾媒咨询，在中国城市化进程加快和消费升级的推动下，预计中国火锅市场在FY23-25F 年将继续以 6.8% 的复合年增长率增长。自2022年12月疫情管控措施放宽后，火锅餐饮消费率先迎来大回暖。我们相信客流量的改善和社交聚会的回归将继续有利于今年的火锅市场。 同店销售增长是FY23F收入增长的主要驱动力。五一假期期间，海底捞到店客户数量约为 530 万，同比增长 65%。我们相信海底捞将在短期内继续实施适度的门店扩张计划，这意味着同店销售增长将成为其主要的收入驱动力。在 28% 的同店销售增长和 3% 的新店开张增长的支持下，我们预计海底捞FY23F 收入将同比增长 37% 至人民币 424.2 亿元。我们相信海底捞将继续实施成本管控措施以应对不断上升的工资压力。由于其强大的品牌，我们还预计海底捞FY23-25F的租金成本比率将保持稳定。我们预测 FY23F员工成本比率同比下降 0.3 个百分点至 32.7%，租金成本比率同比小幅上升 0.1 个百分点至 1%。再加上啄木鸟计划和硬骨计划的继续实施提高了运营效率，我们预计海底捞 FY23F息税前利润率将同比提高 2.1 个百分点至 9.9%。 首次覆盖，给予目标价19.50港元。我们相信海底捞将继续受益于其强大的品牌和稳固的供应链，以保持其市场领先地位。基于 32倍 2023 年市盈率，我们首次覆盖海底捞，给予目标价 19.50 港元。FY23-25F 47% 的核心收益复合年增长率、供应链中强大的议价能力和优于同行的净资产收益率支持我们高于行业的市盈率。凭借 18% 的上涨潜力，我们将该股评级为优于大市。 必需消费品 | 2023 年 5月 30日 海底捞 | 6862 HK 火锅帝国 杜韵翹 (852) 3911 8013 anitadu@ccbintl.com 朱曉瀠 (852) 3911 8252 anitachu@ccbintl.com 交易数据 52周股价高低 11.21 – 24.35港元 市值百万 92,863港元/13,408美元 自由流通股数(百万股) 5,574 自由流通股份 (%) 40 3个月日均成交股数 (百万股) 15.5 3个月日均成交额 (百万美元) 40.7 12个月预期回报率 (%) 18 资料来源: 彭博, 建银国际证券预测 股价相对于恒生国企指数 资料来源: 彭博 股价表现 表现区间 一个月 三个月 十二个月 绝对表现 (12.6) (23.2) 13.5 相对于恒生国企指数表现 (%) (5.9) (18.2) 27.3 资料来源: 彭博 ► 成长中的中国火锅市场 ► 同店销售增长是FY23F收入增长的主要驱动力 ► 首次覆盖，给予优于大市评级，目标价19.50港元 ► ► 优于大市 (首次覆盖) 现价: 目标价: HK$16.66  HK$19.50 (截至2023年5月29日) (首次覆盖) 预测和估值 截至12月31日 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 收入(百万元 人民币) 41,112 31,039 42,420 48,823 54,936 同比(%) 43.7 (24.5) 36.7 15.1 12.5 净利润 (百万元 人民币) (4,163) 1,374 2,923 4,166 5,242 同比(%) (1,446) N/A 113 42 26 稀释每股收益 (人民币) (0.78) 0.25 0.54 0.77 0.97 同比(%) (1,443) (132) 113 42 26 市盈率 (倍) N/A 58.9 28.3 19.9 15.8 每股股息 (港元) – 0.12 0.18 0.26 0.33 收益率 (%) – 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 市帐率(倍) 10.1 11.2 9.0 6.9 5.3 平均股本回报率(%) (45.9) 17.9 34.5 38.1 36.8 净负债/股本(%) 23.7 (26.0) (60.9) (80.9) (91.0) 资料来源: 彭博, 建银国际证券预测 8101214161820222426May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23May-23海底捞恒生国企指数(rebased)(港元) Rating definitions: Outperform (O) – expected return > 10% over the next twelve months Neutral (N) – expected return between -10% and 10% over the next twelve months Underperform (U) – expected return < -10% over the next twelve months Analyst certification: The author(s) of this document, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner; (ii) no part of any of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this document; and (iii) he/she receives no insider information/non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations made by him. The author(s) of this document further confirm that (i) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) (as defined in the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) has dealt in/traded or will deal in /trade the securities covered in this document in a manner contrary to his/her outstanding recommendation, or neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this document within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this document or will so deal in or trade such securities within 3 business days after the date of issue of this document; (ii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) serves as an officer of any of the companies covered in this document; and (iii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has any financial interests in the securities covered in this document. Disclaimers: This document is prepared by CCB International Securities Limited. CCB International Securities Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CCB International (Holdings) Limited (“CCBIH”) and China Construction Bank Corporation (“CCB”). Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but CCB International Securities Limited, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively “CCBIS”) do not guarantee, represent and warrant (either express or implied) its completeness or accuracy or appropriateness for any purpose or any person whatsoever. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. CCBIS seeks to update its research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent it from doing so. Besides certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate according to the analyst's judgment. Forecasts, projections and valuations are