WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 04/2023 | 25 APRIL 2023Recommended citation:García-Herrero, A., and R. Schindowski (2023) ‘Global trends in countries‘ perceptions of the Belt and Road Initiative’, Working Paper 04/2023, BruegelALICIA GARCÍA-HERRERO AND ROBIN SCHINDOWSKIDrawing on global media reports, we conduct a sentiment analysis of the image of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the evolution of its image over time. Our main finding is that perceptions of the initiative deteriorated significantly in many geographies from 2017 to 2022. The notable exception is in sub-Saharan Africa where the BRI’s image remains positive, even if slightly less so than in the past. This is notwithstanding increases in debt levels with China, much of which now face potential restructuring. Furthermore, we find significant inter- and intra-regional differences in the average sentiment towards China’s landmark project, as well as a much worse image of the initiative in countries which, until today, are not part of the BRI. Finally, we focus on the European Union, Africa and China’s immediate neighbourhood to better understand the complexities behind the perceived benefits and challenges associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.The authors thank Grégory Claeys, Mikko Huotari, Matthias Stepan, Marie Le Mouel, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Séverine Arsène, Alessia Amighini and the participants in a Bruegel event on this topic for their valuable comments. Alicia García-Herrero (alicia.garcia-herrero@bruegel.org) is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel Robin Schindowski (robin.schindowski@bruegel.org) is a Research Assistant at BruegelThis project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 101061700.Views expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.GLOBAL TRENDS IN COUNTRIES‘ PERCEPTIONS OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVEWORKING PAPER | ISSUE 03 | 2020 1 Introduction Almost a decade has passed since President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), originally titled ‘One Belt One Road’. The BRI has since expanded into one of China’s most important tools for the build-up of soft power and the implementation of its overseas activities (Dadabaev, 2018). Simultaneously, however, the initiative has attracted controversy in the international media, particularly after COVID-19 led to widespread disruption of global economic activity1. The downturn caused debt distress in many developing countries, many of which received massive Chinese investment prior to 2020. This raises the question as to how the sentiment towards the BRI has evolved across the globe. On the positive side, the BRI has supplemented existing official development assistance from institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. With massive financing, China has provided large-scale infrastructure investment to Belt and Road countries. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, recipient countries, especially those lacking the financial means to satisfy their need for investment, were generally optimistic about the initiative. By 2022, the BRI had officially expanded to 149 member states. In 2018 alone, the number of countries with Memorandums of Understanding with China almost doubled. The literature has confirmed the potential benefits China could bring to Belt and Road countries, especially through trade and investment channels. García-Herrero and Xu (2017) estimated Europe’s expected trade gains as 6 percent above the non-BRI benchmark case, and 3 percent above trade gains in Asia. The rest of the world would suffer a reduction in trade of 0.004 percent. Case studies for specific countries have equally portrayed a potential for positive impact. A study by the World Bank (Bogdan and Najdov, 2020) found that trade and investment flows under the BRI could increase Azerbaijan’s GDP by 21 percent in the long run, depending on the implementation of complementary policies such as the harmonisation of transportation tariffs and legal conditions across the region. Additionally, Li (2018) found that the two international transport corridors (Primorye-1 and Primorye-2) under the BRI linking East Siberia with the Asia-Pacific region provide new opportunities for Russia as well. Critics have pointed out that projects initiated under the BRI umbrella lack the appropriate regulatory framework and market coordination. Without relying on market mechanisms, countries run the risk of engaging in too many projects simultaneously, which is likely to be unprofitable in the long run. Given that most of China’s financial support is to be repaid, debt sustainability in the host countries has 1 James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley, ‘China pulls back from the world: rethinking Xi’s “project of the century”’, Financial Times, 11 December