自动化、全球价值链和功能专业化

Highlights We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999–2011. We highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration as we do not find any direct effects of robot adoption. Robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners.Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional SpecializationNo 2023-05 – March Working PaperLionel Fontagné, Ariell Reshef, Gianluca Santoni & Giulio Vannelli CEPII Working Paper Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization Abstract We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999–2011. Our main contribution is to highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration. To do this, we develop a methodology to separately account for robots in the total capital stock. Increases in upstream, forward GVC participation directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via management, marketing and R&D business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners. KeywordsLabor Share, Functional Specialization, Global Value Chains, Upstreamness, Technological Change, Automation, Robots. JELE25, F14, F16, 033.Working Paper© CEPII, PARIS, 2023Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales 20, avenue de Ségur TSA 10726 75334 Paris Cedex 07contact@cepii.fr www.cepii.fr – @CEPII_Paris Press contact: presse@cepii.frCEPII Working Paper Contributing to research in international economicsCEPII (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales) is a French institute dedicated to producing independent, policy-oriented economic research helpful to understand the international economic environment and challenges in the areas of trade policy, competitiveness, macroeconomics, international finance and growth.EdItoRIAl dIRECtoR: Antoine BouëtVIS uAl dESIgn And PRoduCtIon: Laure BoivinISSN 1293-2574March 2023To subscribe to The CEPII Newsletter:www.cepii.fr/KeepInformedAll rights reserved. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) alone. Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization*Lionel Fontagn ́eBank of France, CEPII & PSEAriell ReshefCNRS, Universit ́e Paris 1 Panth ́eon-Sorbonne, PSE, and CEPIIGianluca SantoniCEPIIGiulio VannelliUniversit ́e Paris Dauphine - PSL (LEDa)1 IntroductionCountries and industries that integrate into Global Value Chains (GVCs) gain by specializing in production stepsin which they have a comparative advantage, while potentially offshoring other stages of the chain. These changesmay manifest in specializing in relatively more downstream activities, i.e. closer to final stages of productionand assembly—or more upstream activities, i.e., production of intermediate inputs. Indeed, GVC integration isconsidered one of the most important dimensions of globalization in recent decades (e.g., Johnson 2018).Beyond their manifestation in trade (and international ownership) patterns, changes in GVC integration alsoimpact payments to domestic primary production factors. Labor and capital intensities vary systematically acrossstages of production (Antr`as, Chor, Fally & Hillberry 2012). Labor shares, as well as business function (or task)intensities, also vary within value chains (Reshef & Santoni 2022). Thus, GVC integration affects business functionspecialization and the overall functional division of income.Technological change plays an equally important role in determining these evolutions. First, it has adirecteffectby complementing or substituting labor—both overall and differentially across specific labor tasks. Second, it mayhave anindirecteffect on payments to labor and on functional specialization through its impact on changes in thepattern of specialization across stages of p