This IMF Working Paper examines the effectiveness of capital controls in limiting inflow surges in financial markets. Using a dataset of capital control changes in 40 advanced and emerging economies from 1995-2018, the authors find that tightening capital controls reduces the likelihood of future surges at both the aggregate and asset flow levels. The results are robust to different definitions of surges and are stronger when controls are targeted to the specific asset class. The paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on how to manage capital flows in an increasingly integrated global financial system.
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