月度油脂油料行情回顾及展望：当下市场的驱动

当下市场的驱动——月度油脂油料行情回顾及展望2023年03月02日•王真军•wangzhenjun@cmschina.com.cn •联系电话：13924066125•执业资格号：Z0010289 期货研究报告|商品研究 市场核心观点市场逻辑推演市场价格的反馈及观点010203目录contents 数据来源：文化财经，招商期货我们的核心观点：从步入临界到选择向下 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：前期步入临界观点是基于核心因子拉尼娜天气 数据来源：USDA，BuenosAiresGrainExchange，招商期货市场逻辑推演：拉尼娜导致了阿根廷产量不断下调，最新预期减产至3350万吨51,000 51,000 51,000 51,000 51,000 51,000 49,500 49,500 45,500 41,000 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23阿根廷大豆产量（千吨）48,000 41,000 41,000 38,000 33,500 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00012月1月2月2月2月布交所产量预估（千吨） 数据来源：USDA，BuenosAiresGrainExchange，招商期货市场逻辑推演：拉尼娜导致了阿根廷产量不断下调，最新预期减产至3350万吨010203040506070808-Dec22-Dec5-Jan19-Jan2-Feb16-Feb2-Mar16-Mar30-Mar13-Apr阿根廷大豆优良率（%）20/2119/2021/2222/2318/1917/18 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：站在年度的视角，全球从过剩回到了平衡年 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：站在半年度的视角，23年上半年供给仍是大幅恢复 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：2月底USDA农业展望美豆新作面积持平，而谷物预期增面积 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：利润驱动，利于谷物扩面积Cost-of-production forecasts for major U.S. field crops, 2022F-2023F1CornSoybeansWheatCottonRicePeanutsSorghumOatsBarleyItem2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023FDollars per planted acreOperating costsSeed94.11 97.52 62.7465.0114.7115.2484.98 88.06 91.3794.68118.68122.9813.9914.5018.7719.4520.7321.48Fertilizer2217.36 211.89 55.0353.6583.1781.08120.54 117.51 180.41175.87127.08123.8869.9068.1474.0972.2383.1281.03Chemicals40.03 37.18 44.2341.0819.5518.1687.02 80.83 111.80103.84152.04141.2234.8332.358.577.9626.3024.43Custom operations325.25 26.11 14.0814.5615.4015.9329.28 30.28 104.82108.4181.8984.6919.5720.2410.6210.986.656.88Fuel, lube, and electricity47.88 40.06 24.3920.4018.7415.6855.50 46.43 123.01102.9180.1267.0217.2014.3931.4826.3425.4721.31Repairs41.33 42.11 34.2234.8729.9530.5252.94 53.94 60.5561.6970.8872.2230.6331.2131.6832.2833.4434.07Other variable expenses40.30 0.31 0.010.010.860.8993.5097.2414.7615.260.840.870.170.182.412.492.792.89Interest on operating capital2.19 4.62 1.102.330.861.802.465.223.236.732.976.220.881.840.831.740.931.95Total, operating costs468.46459.81235.80231.91183.25179.30526.21519.50689.93669.38634.49619.10187.17182.84178.46173.48199.44194.04Allocated overheadHired labor5.94 6.17 5.665.874.674.8423.1223.9937.9439.3724.5525.474.674.842.802.914.804.98Opportunity cost of unpaid labor34.09 35.36 19.7820.5319.9220.6723.2524.1296.46100.0866.3568.8418.7519.4567.4469.9718.3419.03Capital recovery of machinery and equipment171.07 166.38 144.22140.26131.29127.69184.69179.62189.69184.49237.61231.09140.16136.31148.39144.32146.02142.02Opportunity cost of land (rental rate)165.25 165.25 156.71156.7162.8062.8086.9286.92152.91152.91100.21100.2157.7257.72101.91101.9179.1979.19Taxes and insurance14.04 14.24 13.7513.957.267.379.529.6521.0121.3129.3129.7310.7710.937.477.5812.5912.77General farm overhead22.77 23.20 21.7422.1510.8811.0816.5816.9032.3132.9357.8858.9816.6616.9716.1616.4622.1122.53Total, allocated costs413.16 410.60 361.86 359.47 236.82 234.45 344.08 341.20 530.33 531.08 515.91 514.32 248.73 246.23 344.18 343.16 283.05 280.51 Total, costs listed881.62 870.41 597.66 591.38 420.06 413.75 870.29 860.70 1220.27 1200.47 1150.40 1133.42 435.89 429.07 522.64 516.63 482.49 474.55 Yield173.36 181.53 49.55 52.018546.48 49.14 Price6.70 6.31 14.30 14.929.00 9.00 Net Value279.89 275.04 110.87 184.73 -1.75 28.52 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：美国主要农作物步入内卷 数据来源：USDA，招商期货市场逻辑推演：新作库存预期环比增加15/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/24种植面积（千英亩）82,700 83,400 90,200 89,200 76,100 83,400 87,200 87,500 87,500 收获面积81,800 82,700 89,500 87,600 74,900 82,600 86,300 86,300 86,700 起初库存191 197 302 438 909 525 257 274 225 产量（百万蒲氏耳）3,926 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,552 4,216 4,465 4,276 4,510 进口24 22 22 14 15 20 16 15 15 总供应4,141 4,515 4,736 4,880 4,476 4,761 4,738 4,565 4,750 压榨1,886 1,899 2,055 2,092 2,165 2,141 2,204 2,230 2,310 出口1,936 2,174 2,134 1,748 1,682 2,266 2,158 1,990 2,025 食用消费0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 种用残值122 140 109 131 104 97 102 120 126 总需求3,944 4,213 4,298 3,971 3,951 4,504 4,464 4,340 4,461 美豆库存197 302 438 909 525 257 274 225 289 库存消费比5.0%7.2%10.2%22.9%13.3%5.7%6.1%5.2%6.5%大豆单产48.0 51.9 49.3 50.5 47.4 51.0 51.7 49.5 52.0 数据来源：AGRUAL，招商期货市场价格的反馈：基差先行0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%24-Jan7-Feb21-Feb6-Mar20-Mar3-Apr17-Apr1-May巴西大豆收割进度Ave-520172018201920202021202220230204060801001201401-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-Dec1-Jan1-Feb巴西3月基差(美分/吨)2016201720182019202020212022 数据来源：文化财经，招商期货市场价格的反馈及观点：高估值，选择向下 数据来源：NOAA，招商期货风险点：关注天气扰动 数据来源：文华财经，招商期货国内豆二价格的反馈及观点：跟随外盘成本端下行 数据来源：文华财经，招商期货国内豆粕价格的反馈及观点：跟随外盘成本端下行 数据来源：国家粮油信息中心，招商期货国内豆粕逻辑推演：近端处于宽松水平01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0008-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep沿海大豆库存（千吨）‘16/17‘17/18‘18/19‘19/20‘20/21‘21/22‘22/2302004006008001,0001,2001,4008-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep沿海豆粕库存（千吨）‘14/15‘15/16‘16/17’17/18‘18/19‘19/20‘20/21‘21/22‘22/23 数据来源：招商期货国内豆粕逻辑推演：远端预期库存继续上升National import Soya s-d 2022/20232023/2/28In '000 MtsOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep合计同比Crushing Distribution Est.Carry-in6,927 3,763