期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金：继续拉升 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 白银：快速上行 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 铜：美元大幅回落，支撑价格 ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 铝：风险情绪叠加低库存，仍守住万九 .................................................................................................................................... 7 锌：需求疲软，限制上方空间 ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 铅：疫情扰动供需两侧，震荡运行 ........................................................................................................................................... 11 镍：宏观情绪扰动，库存低位支撑 ........................................................................................................................................... 13 不锈钢：需求疲软压制，库存周度垒增 .................................................................................................................................. 13 锡：震荡反弹 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 铁矿石：短期内交易情绪中性偏强 ........................................................................................................................................... 17 螺纹钢：地产利好频出，偏强运行 ........................................................................................................................................... 19 热轧卷板：静态库存支撑，偏强震荡 ...................................................................................................................................... 19 硅铁：终端反馈传导，溢价承压 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 锰硅：钢招表现向好，下有支撑 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 焦炭：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 焦煤：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 动力煤：需求有所释放，企稳运行 ........................................................................................................................................... 25 玻璃：趋势仍偏弱 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 26 PTA：05合约有反弹 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27 MEG：05合约有反弹 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 橡胶：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 沥青：震荡延续，静待冬储 ......................................................................................................................................................... 32 LLDPE：反弹难持续，中期趋势仍偏弱 ................................................................................................................................... 34 PP：中期趋势仍偏弱 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 36 纸浆：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 甲醇：趋势仍偏弱 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 40 尿素：需求阶段性回落 ，震荡偏弱......................................................................................................................................... 42 苯乙烯：空EB多PTA .................................................................................................................................................................... 44 纯碱：上方有压力 .........................................................................................................................................