4800700608405013.012.012.500A Report of the CSIS International Security ProgramNOVEMBER 2022COMBINED ARMS WARFARE AND UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMSA NEW ERA OF STRATEGIC COMPETITIONSeth G. Jones — Jake Harrington — Christopher K. Reid — Matthew Strohmeyer NOVEMBER 2022A Report of the CSIS International Security ProjectCOMBINED ARMS WARFARE AND UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMSA NEW ERA OF STRATEGIC COMPETITIONSeth G. Jones — Jake Harrington — Christopher K. Reid — Matthew StohmeyerLanham • Boulder • New York • London — II —       / jones, harrington, reid & strohmeyerABOUT CSISThe Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the world’s greatest challenges.Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000.CSIS’s purpose is to define the future of national security. We are guided by a distinct set of values—nonpartisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking, cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and professionalism, and talent development. CSIS’s values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact.CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment, and robust networks to their research, analysis, and recommendations. We organize conferences, publish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public. CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers. We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world.CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).© 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.ISBN: 978-1-5381-7058-8 (pb); 978-1-5381-7059-5 (eBook)Center for Strategic & International Studies1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20036202-887-0200 | www.csis.orgRowman & Littlefield4501 Forbes BoulevardLanham, MD 20706301-459-3366 | www.rowman.org — III —       / jones, harrington, reid & strohmeyerACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe would like to thank numerous individuals for their assistance during the research, writing, and revision stages of this report. Thanks, in particular, to Todd Harrison and Caitlin Lee for their outstanding reviews of the draft report. We asked them to be critical and blunt in pointing out errors in the logic and evidence of the report—and they did exactly that. The work is better for their candid and honest feedback. Thanks also to a range of individuals in the U.S. Department of Defense who were helpful in discussing unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), particularly their increasing role in combined arms.At CSIS, thanks to Riley McCabe for his outstanding work collecting and analyzing data on UASs—particularly in Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine—in support of the research. He was also heavily involved in helping us think through the figures, photos, and other aspects of the report—including the research and revisions. We extend our sincere thanks to Janes for helping us access and exploit additional data on the use of UASs in the Russia-Ukraine war. Thanks also to Catrina Doxsee, Jared Thompson, and Grace Hwang for their assistance on research and analysis. Finally, we would like to thank CSIS’s iLab team for their outstanding job in editing, formatting, and publishing the document.This report is made possible by general support to CSIS and support from General Atomics. — IV —       / jones, harrington, reid & strohmeyerCONTENTSExecutive Summary V1 | Introduction 12 | UASs in Warfare and Competition 43 | Nagorno-Karabakh War 94 | Ukraine War 165 | Northern Edge 21 256 | The Future of UASs in Competition and Warfare 29About the Authors 35Appendix 1: UASs and Other Systems Used by Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War 37Appendix 2: UASs and Other Systems Used by Ukraine in the 2022 Russia- Ukraine War 40Appendix 3: UASs and Other Systems Used by Russia in the 2022 Russia- Ukraine War 45Endnotes 49 — V —       / jones, harrington, reid & strohmeyerEXECUTIVE SUMMARYUnmanned aircraft systems (UASs) have played an important role in warfare over the past two decades, including for counterterrorism operations. But there has been a growing debate about their utility for competition and interstate war—including between major powers such as the United States and China. For some, UASs are creating a “revolution in military affairs,