三季报业绩预告点评：产能投放顺利，Q3业绩超预期

1 指标2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E营业收入（百万元）5321,1732,1493,0294,042增速（%）28.24%120.44%83.16%40.92%33.44%归母净利润（百万元）852795928731,130增速（%）225.92%227.01%112.37%47.42%29.49%每股收益（元）0.090.310.660.971.26市盈率（倍）410.66125.5859.1340.1130.98 iFinD 资产负债表利润表会计年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E会计年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E货币资金234.66148.22320.25859.701237.152330.01营业收入415.10532.311173.442149.243028.714041.54应收票据及账款62.4653.4718.8832.3944.1456.14营业成本308.91303.25685.101164.231657.762286.22预付账款4.775.8622.0853.5874.6888.47税金及附加5.589.1510.1411.6116.3621.82其他应收款0.141.495.057.0711.6211.29销售费用5.502.953.976.458.4810.10存货38.3230.95153.55161.40197.57224.86管理费用61.0364.89118.27161.19224.12295.03其他流动资产4.1690.36172.91337.43402.82553.69研发费用11.2217.1859.12133.25190.81254.62流动资产总计344.51330.36692.723033.913550.334846.82财务费用18.8214.1826.5767.0948.0925.22长期股权投资0.000.000.000.000.000.00资产减值损失0.00-52.69 0.000.000.000.00固定资产593.33553.642129.532465.832902.572582.74信用减值损失-0.00 0.630.050.000.000.00在建工程93.291123.06566.271171.90910.85549.80其他经营损益-0.00 -0.00 0.002.303.102.60无形资产135.73130.44189.53241.28359.69444.77投资收益-0.63 -0.11 0.465.004.605.70长期待摊费用0.000.0017.5318.7712.5015.00公允价值变动损益0.000.000.003.503.002.89其他非流动资产1.8814.45128.66260.40280.70303.70资产处置收益-1.91 0.180.050.000.000.00非流动资产合计824.231821.593031.534158.174466.303896.01其他收益23.3315.6125.4725.0030.4034.20资产总计1168.732151.953724.257192.088016.638742.83营业利润24.8484.33296.29641.23924.201193.92短期借款72.0055.86575.77235.87-0.00 -0.00 营业外收入1.491.940.700.500.300.20应付票据及账款109.09314.02539.13714.491107.291139.98营业外支出0.181.031.8418.005.003.50其他流动负债96.76167.91124.00269.70344.95416.43其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计277.85537.791238.901220.051452.241556.41利润总额26.1585.23295.14623.73919.501190.62长期借款96.55469.191058.961064.69858.01439.33所得税0.000.0016.4231.8146.8960.72其他非流动负债122.97188.37191.08206.30220.00243.80净利润26.1585.23278.72591.92872.601129.89非流动负债合计219.52657.561250.031270.991078.01683.13少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00负债合计497.371195.352488.932491.042530.252239.54归属母公司股东净利润26.1585.23278.72591.92872.601129.89股本1014.99800.00800.00900.00900.00900.00EBITDA99.92149.29411.631215.911704.752039.13资本公积243.8550.6950.692883.692883.692883.69NOPLAT45.5698.33304.91669.58919.941154.24留存收益-587.48 105.91384.63917.351702.702719.60EPS(元)0.030.090.310.660.971.26归属母公司权益671.36956.591235.314701.045486.386503.29少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.00主要财务比率股东权益合计671.36956.591235.314701.045486.386503.29会计年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E负债和股东权益合计1168.732151.953724.257192.088016.638742.83成长能力营收增长率34.79% 28.24% 120.44% 83.16% 40.92% 33.44% 现金流量表营业利润增长率200.54% 239.46% 251.36% 116.42% 44.13% 29.18% 会计年度2019202020212022E2023E2024EEBIT增长率3889.31% 121.08% 223.61% 114.73% 40.06% 25.66% 税后经营利润26.1585.23278.72576.73841.001092.42EBITDA增长率90.71% 49.41% 175.72% 195.39% 40.20% 19.61% 折旧与摊销54.9649.8889.92525.10737.16823.30归母净利润增长率206.83% 225.92% 227.01% 112.37% 47.42% 29.49% 财务费用18.8214.1826.5767.0948.0925.22经营现金流增长率310.78% 288.92% 28.92% 324.88% 55.00% -5.49% 投资损失0.630.11-0.46 -5.00 -4.60 -5.70 盈利能力营运资金变动-42.81 32.69-96.27 101.66329.09-99.46 毛利率25.58% 43.03% 41.62% 45.83% 45.27% 43.43% 其他经营现金流2.2551.242.3312.5030.3036.60净利率6.30% 16.01% 23.75% 27.54% 28.81% 27.96% 经营性现金净流量59.99233.32300.811278.081981.041872.38营业利润率5.98% 15.84% 25.25% 29.83% 30.51% 29.54% 资本支出84.32851.281161.291604.781011.30206.20ROE3.90% 8.91% 22.56% 12.59% 15.90% 17.37% 长期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.00ROA2.24% 3.96% 7.48% 8.23% 10.88% 12.92% 其他投资现金流18.00-65.14 -9.16 -1606.41 -14.40 -16.42 ROIC7.18% 12.75% 20.58% 23.33% 20.82% 24.37% 投资性现金净流量-66.32 -916.42 -1170.44 -3211.18 -1025.70 -222.62 估值倍数短期借款-181.20 -16.14 519.91-339.91 -235.87 -0.00 P/E1338.41410.66125.5859.1340.1130.98长期借款-39.98 372.64589.775.73-206.68 -418.68 P/S84.3265.7529.8316.2911.568.66普通股增加400.00-214.99 0.00100.000.000.00P/B52.1336.5928.337.456.385.38资本公积增加0.00-193.16 0.002833.000.000.00股息率0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.25% 0.32% 其他筹资现金流24.45632.20-98.55 -126.28 -135.35 -138.21 EV/EBIT780.58357.36113.8850.2635.4027.26筹资性现金净流量203.27580.541011.132472.55-577.89 -556.89 EV/EBITDA351.28237.9689.0028.5520.0916.25现金流量净额197.00-102.54 141.55539.44377.451092.86EV/NOPLAT770.39361.30120.1551.8537.2328.72