数字化和社会保护：越南的宏观和微观教训（英）

Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam Amr Hosny and Alexandre Sollaci WP/22/185IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 SEP *The manuscript benefited from useful comments and suggestions from Vu Chau, Era Dabla-Norris, Emine Hanedar;Jeff Kearns, Huong Lan Vu, Chris Papageorgiou, Cian Ruane and Yue Zhou.© 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/185IMF Working Paper Asia- Pacific Department Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for VietnamPrepared by Amr Hosny and Alexandre Sollaci* Authorized for distribution by Era Dabla-Norris September 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 shock has underscored the importance of digital tools for enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of social protection systems. Cross-country evidence suggests that digital IDs linked with bank and/or mobile money accounts can improve the delivery of social protection programs and better reach eligible beneficiaries. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey, we present micro simulations on the welfare gains of digital social protection during the pandemic. While digitalization offers opportunities, potential risks would need to be carefully managed. Vietnam is advancing on individual pieces of the digitalization puzzle, including full digital IDs and mobile money, and the next step is to put these pieces together. JEL Classification Numbers: C15, J65, H31, O57 Keywords: digitalization, social protection, Covid-19 Author’s E-Mail Address: AHosny@imf.org; ABalduinoSollaci@imf.org; IMF WORKING PAPERS Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam Prepared by Amr Hosny and Alexandre Sollaci IMF WORKING PAPERS Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Identifying Beneficiaries: Cross-Country Considerations .......................................................................... 7 3. Reaching Beneficiaries: Cross-Country Experiences ............................................................................... 10 4. Simulating the Welfare Gains of Digital Social Protection for Households During Covid-19................ 13 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 19 Annex: Data and Measurements ...................................................................................................................... 21 FIGURES Fig 1: Mobile and Internet Subscriptions .......................................................................................................... 6 Fig 2: Mobile and Internet Prices ....................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 3: Financial Inclusion Indices ...................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 4: Coverage, Social Protection and Labor ................................................................................................. 6 Fig 5: Non-Take-Up and Leakage ...................................................................................................................... 7 Fig 6: Digital/Biometric IDs ................................................................................................................................ 9 Fig 7: G2P (Government Transfer Payments) ................................................................................................ 10 Fig 8: Mobile Money vs Financial Institutions ................................................................................................ 11 Fig 9: Mobile Money Outlets vs Financial ....................................................................................................... 11 Fig 10: P2P Payments ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Fig 11: P2B Payments .............................................................................................