基本金属日报

LME金属价格表1：LME价格 - 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍金属收盘价日涨跌升贴水升贴水变化铜7291.0-0.01%69.0-19.5 数据来源：金瑞期货研究所铝2109.50.36%-21.8 -2.0 铅1765.50.46%-11.0 4.5锌2870.00.70%13.51.5锡20600.00.98%2.0-4.0 镍21750.0-1.38%-135.0 32.0数据来源：Wind，金瑞期货研究所表2：国内期货价格 - 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍金属收盘价日涨跌成交量持仓量铜60700-2.93%141617102539铝18075-3.52%247672111861铅149400.17%4531123201锌24280-2.76%17812267139锡179090-2.82%8471931927镍187500-3.69%11081956731数据来源：wind，金瑞期货研究所，注：标的为主力合约金瑞网站：www.jrqh.com.cn客服热线：400-888-8208联系人：罗平电话：0755-83679730邮箱：luoping@jrqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3001801金瑞期货有色组李 丽 曾童钟明真 罗平周维刚 龚鸣吴梓杰基本金属日报2022年9月28日金瑞观点评级：★★金瑞期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分1铜：LME铜跌0.04%,报7292.0美元/吨。上海升水550，广东540。节前备货效应下，交投好转。美元依旧保持强势，铜价持续承压。此前通胀数据大超预期美联储加息节奏悲观，宏观压力加大，价格面临下行风险。但全球库存持续保持较低水平，高back结构可能持续。盘面下方建议观察60000一线支撑情况。本周建议关注下游十一备货情况。预计LME铜价核心价格区间【7200，7600】美元/吨，沪铜核心价格区间【58000，61000】元/吨。投资策略：短期宏观变数加剧，价格有一定下行幅度，十一备货订单建议可以逐步建立。风险提示：中美政治局势变化。国内外货币政策、财政政策变化、国内防疫政策变化。镍：隔夜市场伦镍继续下跌，收于21750美元/吨，跌305美元或下跌1.38%，沪镍10合约夜盘下跌4350元/吨至181000元/吨或下跌2.35%，宏观方面美联储鹰派加息引发多国央行出手干预汇市，金融市场悲观情绪升温美元指数创新高，有色金属悉数走低。基本面方面，镍金属内部结构性矛盾突出，镍板资源相对偏紧，新能源中间品供给相对充足；而镍铁方面随着不锈钢企业积极复产，钢厂加大对镍铁需求，镍铁暂时性供给偏紧价格回升。后市随着印尼镍铁回流增加叠加新增产能的持续投放，镍铁将重回过剩局面。因此镍价期仍在在镍板资源紧张和宏观悲观情绪间博弈，短期维持伦镍【21000,24000】美元/吨沪镍主力【170000,190000】元/吨核心区间震荡思路，中长期基于供给过剩预期维持价格下破震荡区间判断。操作上区间操作思路，11合约190000元/吨上方逐步建立空头头寸。投资策略：区间操作思路，11合约190000元/吨上方逐步建立空头头寸。风险提示：印尼产业政策动向，其它重点国际事件，资金逼空风险。450065008500105002022-04-252022-07-25LME铜14002400340044002022/4/252022/7/25LME 锌140021400414002022-04-252022-07-25LME 镍 页码一、金瑞观点1金瑞观点1铜锌镍价格走势1表1：LME价格 - 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍1表2：国内期货价格 - 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍11二、铜、铝、铅、锌21、国外市场数据3表3：LME期货持仓3表4：LME期货持仓分布3表5：CFTC持仓分析 -- COMEX 铜3表6：国内现货铜升贴水3表7：LME库存日统计 - 铜4表8：LME库存日统计 - 铝4表9：LME库存日统计 - 铅5表10：LME库存日统计 - 锌6表11：LME库存日统计 - 锡6表12：LME库存日统计 - 镍72. 国内期货市场数据8表11：上海期货交易所库存8表12：上期所主力合约机构持仓排名83. 国内现货市场数据9表13：现货价格9表14：相关产品报价9表15：内外比价及进口盈亏9三、指标说明10四、免责声明11基本金属日报2022年9月28日目录请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2 表3：LME期货持仓品种持仓量日变化铜2422062.23%铝563029-0.12%铅956105.00%锌192861-0.75%锡11447-0.82%镍146248-0.12%数据来源：彭博，金瑞期货研究所表5：CFTC持仓分析 -- COMEX 铜多头空头套期多头空头多头空头多头空头9月20日46773670592041382693594781498791469501317916108数据来源：CFTC网站，金瑞期货研究所表6：国内现货铜升贴水长江有色升贴水上海有色升贴水上海物贸升贴水最小最大最小最大最低最高最低最高最低最高平均价2022/9/276406805205809811490105951104402022/9/266306705205809010690105951104502022/9/236506905306208810480100951054752022/9/227107505005708810480100951054802022/9/21730770550610901048010095105490注：数据来源为wind，上海保税库为外高桥上海保税库溢价2022年9月28日日期报告持仓非商业商业总计洋山铜溢价上海电解铜CIF(提单）溢价市场数据 -- 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分3非报告持仓基本金属日报1. 国外市场数据 -- 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍 表7：LME库存日统计 - 铜地区地点期始库存入库出库期末库存库存变化注册仓单注销仓单新注销注销占比迪拜#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!仁川#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!光阳#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!釜山#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!柔佛#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!巴生港#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!新加坡#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!台湾#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!亚洲共计0000000#VALUE!0安特卫普#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!汉堡#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!巴塞罗那#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!毕尔巴鄂#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!赫尔#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALUE!利物浦#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#N/A Requesting Data...#VALUE!#VALU