2022年二季报点评：韧性突显，持续看好商业化前景与盈利潜力

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) Equity Research·Company Research·Software Service (HS) 1 / 12 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2Q22 Review: high resilience with promising monetization and earning prospect Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 81,082 92,104 111,187 128,780 Growth (YoY %) 37.95% 13.59% 20.72% 15.82% Non-GAAP Net profit (RMB mn) -18,852 -5,954 7,539 15,316 Growth (YoY %) - - - 103% Non-GAAP EPS (RMB) -4.39 -1.39 1.76 3.57 P/E (X) - - 34 17 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: In 2Q22, Kuaishou achieved sales of Rmb21.7bn (+13.4% yoy) and adjusted net loss of Rmb1.3bn (significantly narrowed both yoy and qoq). The overall earning results beat market consensus. ◼ Amid ongoing industry headwinds, Kuaishou managed to deliver higher-than-expected revenue for its core business. In 2Q22, sales of online marketing services, live streaming, and other services reached Rmb11/8.6/2.1bn (+10.5%/+19.1%/+7.1% yoy), all of which are better than market consensus. GMV of e-commerce grew by 31.5% yoy to Rmb191.2bn, despite multiple challenges such as logistics. Number of Advertisers grew by >90% yoy and sales growth of brand ads exceeded the overall online marketing services. We favor growth potential of Kuaishou's core business and have confidence for its overseas market expansion and more diversified monetization modes (such as shopping mall business and fast recruitment business). The company continues to release social ecological value based on short video and live streaming. ◼ Improved operating efficiency led to fast and healthy traffic growth even after the cost control. In 2Q22, average DAU and MAU of Kuaishou App grew by 18.5% and 15.9% yoy, and average DAU/MAU rose to 59% (+1.41pct qoq). DAU and DAU/MAU both hit record high. Average daily time spent per DAU grew by 17.1% to 125.2mins. Kuaishou also achieved breakthrough in time spent of overseas user, with average daily time spent per user hitting record high and exceeding 60mins. ◼ Effects of re-organization started to manifest while the China segment achieved profitability ahead of schedule. In 2Q22, Kuaishou reported an operating profit of China segment of Rmb93.6mn (vs. operating loss of RMb1.0bn in 2Q21), starting to gain profit from loss, and an operating loss of overseas segment of Rmb1.6bn (narrowed both yoy and qoq). The overall adjusted NP margin was -6%, narrowing by 20.2pct yoy and 11.7pct qoq. Improvement of profitability mainly came from the re-organization and tech optimization. The proportion of bandwidth & server related costs and employee welfare expenses in the overall revenue declined 3.2pct and 1.4pct yoy, while the S&M and R&D ratio dropped by 18.5pct and 5.3pct yoy. We expect Kuaishou to regain its sales growth and further expand its profitability during China's macro recovery. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We raise Kuaishou's adjusted NP from Rmb-12.385/-3.399/2.755bn to Rmb-5.954/7.539/15.316bn in 2022-2024. The current share price implies P/E at 34x/17x for 2023/2024. We maintain the "Buy" rating. ◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected monetization progress, loss of content creators, slowing growth of short video users. [Table_PicQuote] Price Performance [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (HKD) 69.00 52-week Range (HKD) 53.15/99.40 P/B (X) 5.44 Market Cap (HKD mn) 243,417.88 Basic Data data BVPS (HKD) 11.04 Liabilities/assets (%) 50.07 Total Issued Shares (mn) 4,294.03 Shares outstanding (mn) 3,527.80 [Table_Report] Related reports 《快手-W(01024.HK:)：2022年一季报业绩点评：运营指标强劲增长，行业逆风下份额快速提升》 2022-05-26 《快手-W(01024.HK:)：2021年报点评：业绩超预期，降本增效成果显著》 2022-03-30 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Liangwei Zhang (张良卫), Liangjiu Zhang (周良玖) and Xunyue He (何逊玥). [Table_Author] 15 September 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -31%-24%-17%-10%-3%4%11%18%25%32%2021/08/242021/12/232022/04/232022/08/22Kuaishou-WHSI 快手-W（01024.HK） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·Error! Unknown document property name. 2 / 12 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2022年二季报点评：韧性突显，持续看好商业化前景与盈利潜力 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 81,082 92,104 111,187 128,780 同比 37.95% 13.59% 20.72% 15.82% Non-GAAP净利润（百万元） -18,852 -5,954 7,539 15,316 同比 - - - 103% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股， Non-GAAP） -4.39 -1.39 1.76 3.57 PE（现价&最新股本摊薄，Non-GAAP） - - 34 17 投资要点 ◼ 事件：公司披露2022年二季报，总收入217亿元，同比增长13.4%，经调整净亏损13亿元，同比和环比均大幅收窄。公司业绩好于市场预期。 ◼ 行业逆风背景下，主业收入全面超预期。22Q2公司线上营销服务同比+ 10.5%至110亿元，直播收入同比+19.1%至86亿元，其他服务同比+7.1%至21亿元，均好于一致预期。尤其是广告业务和电商业务，Q2电商在物流等环节面临较大挑战，GMV仍实现31.5%的同比增速，达1,912亿元；平台广告主数量同比增长超过90%，品牌广告增速超过整体线上营销服务收入增速。我们看好公司主业发展空间，同时对海外市场以及更多变现模式（如商场业务、发展快速的快招工业务）保持信心，公司正持续释放基于短视频及直播的社交生态价值。 ◼ 运营能力提升，控费后流量仍实现较快、健康增长。22Q2快手应用平均DAU及MAU同比增长18.5%和15.9%，平均DAU/MAU增