成都银行：三大红利释放，成长可期
BankofChengdu（601838）EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·BankingII1/22东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]Regional,resourceandoperationaledgesfacilitatethegrowthofBOCDBuy（Initiation）Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue(RMBmn)17,89021,22425,73030,363Growth(YoY%)22.5%18.6%21.2%18.0%Netprofit(RMBmn)7,8319,65212,16014,349Growth(YoY%)30.0%23.3%26.0%18.0%EPS(RMB)2.092.673.373.97P/E(X)7.896.154.874.13InvestmentThesisBenefitingfromregional,resourceandoperationaladvantages,BankofChengdusawagrowthagainstthedownwardindustrytrend.AsthefirstcitycommercialbankinSichuanprovince,BankofChengduhasachievedremarkableresultsinitstransformationsince2019,guidedbystrategiesof"digitization,refinementsandbigretail".In2021,thecompanyrankedthefourthinrevenuegrowthandfirstinROEamongChinesecitycommercialbanks.Itssuccesscanbeattributedtothreemajoradvantages:regional,resourceandoperationaledges.Bycombiningtheinnateregionalandresourceedgewithacquiredoperationaladvantage,BOCDreinforcesitsbusinessmoatofhighcustomerstickinessandlow-costdebt.1.Regionaladvantage:Rootedinregionaleconomy,BOCDenjoysrichgovernmentresourcesthatlaysolidfoundationforitsexpansionofefficientassets,stableliabilitiesandkeycustomerbase.In2020,Chengdu-ChongqingMetropolitanAreabecameanationalstrategy,andBOCDgrewrapidlyamidtheregionaleconomicgrowth.Ontheassetside,70%ofloanscamefromcorporateloans,ofwhichnearly60%camefromgovernmentaffairs,representedbyinfrastructure,leasingandbusinessservices.Ontheliabilityside,asoneofthepayrollbanksforthegovernmentaswellassomeenterprisesandpublicinstitutions,BOCDisabletoaccumulatelargeamountsofdemanddepositsandmaintainlowcostofcapital.2.Resourceadvantage:BOCDoutperformedthebankingsectorandthemarketbylocatinggrowthdriverthatfitsitsowncharacteristicsandconvertingitsresourcesintosustainableadvantages.Ontheassetside,BOCDextendsitsbusinesstoawiderrangeofindustries.Forexample,bydevelopinganumberof"distinctive,standardizedandlocalized"creditproductsandutilizinggovernmentresources,BOCDimprovesitsserviceforsmallandmedium-sizedenterprisesinscienceandtechnology,manufacturingaswellasculturalandcreativeareas.Ontheliabilityside,BOCDactivelypromotesthedevelopmentofbigretailbusinessandsteadygrowthofpersonaltimedeposits,openingtheroomforgrowthinbusinesssuchaspersonalconsumptionandwealthmanagementviaimprovedcustomerstickinessanddifferentiatedservices.3.Operatingadvantage:Withthreemajorstrategiesinprogress,BOCDsawacontinuousimprovementinassetqualitysince2015,withrateofnonperformingloansandspecial-mentionedloansdecliningforsixyears.Benefitingfromthe"stablegrowth"and"stablerealestate"policy,itsassetqualityislikelytoremainexcellentinthefuture.Also,weseegreatpotentialforitsbigretailtransformation,giventhat80%ofitsrevenuecomesfrominterest.EarningsForecast&Rating：Weprojectitsnetearningstogrowat23.3%/26.0%/18.0%in2022-2024,withcorrespondingBPSofRMB14.62/17.01/19.83andP/Bof1.12xin2022.WeinitiatewithaBuyratingandPTofRmb21.93(P/Bof1.5xin2022).Risks:Slower-than-expectedcrediteasing;Hardlandingofrealestatemarket;Sluggishretailtransformation.InvestmentThesisAgloballeaderininformationandenergyinterconnectionwithpromisingfutureearnings.Thecompanyfocusesoncreatingvalueforcustomersinthefieldsofcommunicationsandenergy.Itsmainbusinessesincludeopticalcommunication,smartgrid,marineenergy&communications,industrialintelligenceandcopperconductor.1)Steadyearningsgrowth:In2021,thecompanyachievedoperatingrevenueRMB41.271billion(+27.44%YOY)andnetprofitRMB1.436billion(+35.28%YOY).2)Effectivemanagementofoverallexpenseratio:Inrecentyears,thecompany'sexpenseratiosofsales,managementandfinancemaintainedasteadydownwardtrend,withanoverallexpenseratiobetween11%-14%.Industryoutlook:1)Offshorewindpower:Globaloffshorewindpowersawanacceleratingdevelopmentandhighdemandindomesticandinternationalmarkets.China’stotalinstalledoffshorewindpowercapacityin2021was57GW(+58.33%YoY),ofwhichthenewlyinstalledwas21.1GW(+205.80%YoY).2)MarineCommunications:40%ofthesubmarinecablelaidin2000willsoonenteranewroundofupgradeandreplacement,leadingtohighercertaindemand.3)OpticalCommunications:thepick-upofopticalfiberandcableindustrydrivesthedemand.Withthesteadydeploymentofcommunicationsinfrastructureandpolicystimulationtochannelmorecomputingresourcesfromtheeasternareastothelessdevelopedwesternregions,bothquantityandpriceofopticalfiberandcablerosein2021,drivingtheoverallindustrytorebound.4)SmartGrids:Thecarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitygoalsgenerateddemandforelectricityconsumption,leadingtoasteadyincreaseingridinvestmentandconstruction.Thecompanyinsistsonthestrategicgoalofparalleldevelopmentofmultiplebusinessareasandobtainsobviouscorecompetitiveadvantages.1)MarineEnergy:Withobviousadvantagesinmediumandhigh-endproductslayout,thecompanyisoneofthethreedomesticmanufacturerswithAC/DCsubmarinecableproductioncapacityof500KVandabove,andisexpectedtocontinuouslybenefitfromitsoastoachieveincrementalbusiness.2)MarineCommunications:TheacquisitionofHuaweiMarinemadethecompanytheonlydomesticmanufacturerwithfullproductsolutioncapabi
