EquityResearch·IndustryResearch·BrokerageSectorBrokerageIndustryResearch1/31东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]Howtochoose"long-distanceracechampions"and"sprinters"inthebrokeragesectorOutperform(Maintain)InvestmentThesisByreviewingthebrokeragesector(2003-May2022),wefindthatdriversofbrokeragestockpricesdifferinthelongtermandshortterm,andtheforecastmaydeviatefromrealityifanalyzingthetwotypesofdrivingfactorsinthesameframework.Therefore,weexpecttosummarizecommonalitiesofleadingbrokeragestocksfromtwodimensions-thelongtermandshortterm,respectivelybyhistoricalreview,soastoprovideframeworkguidanceforstockselectionindifferenttimedimensions.Growthisthemostimportantexplanatoryvariableforlong-termsharepriceperformance.1)EastMoneyInformationandCITICleadthebrokeragesectorinthelongrunwithsignificantadvantagesinexcessreturns.During2003-May2022,EastMoneyInformation/CITICrankedfirst/secondinthebrokeragesectorwithexcessreturnsof+2039%/+1802%.2)Commonalityoflong-termoutperformingstocks:Highlinearcorrelationbetweencompany'slong-termearningsgrowthandsharepriceperformance.①AnnualizedearningsgrowthofEastMoneyInformationranksfirstinthewholebrokeragesector:EastMoneyInformation's2012-2021CAGRofoperatingrevenue(57%)andnetincome(83%)werewellaboveotherbrokeragestocksandindustryaverages.②Thecompany'searningsgrowthdrivesthelong-termupwardofsharepriceandlong-termalphadeterminesthesharepricemovement.ForEastMoneyInformationandHithinkRoyalFlushInformationNetwork,thecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenrevenue/netincomeandsharepricearecloseto1,showingapositivelinearcorrelationbetweenearningsandshareprice.3)Alphaadvantagecreates"long-distanceracechampion"amongbrokeragestocks.①EastMoneyInformation,theleadingonlinebroker,hasabove-averagelong-termearningsgrowthandsignificantalphaadvantage.②HithinkRoyalFlushInformationNetworkisexcellentatmonetizingitstrafficandhasachievedscaleeffectsthroughbusinessdiversificationwiththehelpofAltechnology.Tradingandshort-termthematicfactorsconstitutethemainexplanatoryvariablesforshort-termsharepriceperformance.1)Commonalitiesofshort-termoutperformingstocks:smallmarketcap,lowinstitutionalpositionratioand,meetingmarketthemesandexpectations.Bysummarizingthecharacteristics(includingmarketcapitalization,liquidityratio,institutionalpositionratio,valuation,currentmarketthemes)ofbrokeragestockswithrapidsharepriceincreaseintheshorttermduring2012-15June2022,wefindthatbrokeragestockswithlowermarketexpectations,smallermarketcap,lowerinstitutionalpositionratioaremorelikelytoachieverapidstockpriceincreaseandexcessreturnsintheshortrun.2)Theopeningofsector'sbullmarketandbusinesshighlightsdrivebrokeragestockpricesuprapidly.Thepossibilityofbrokeragestockpricesrisingrapidlyincreasessignificantlywhenvaluationislow.3)Sub-newbrokeragestocksaremorelikelytoobtainexcessreturnsintheexistenceofexuberantmarketsentiment.Thelong-termandshort-termdriversofbrokeragestockpricesarenotfragmentedbutratherdynamicallybalanced:Thereviewofbrokeragesectorsuggeststhatmanybrokeragestockssawsignificantexcessreturnsbasedonshort-andmedium-termmarketexpectationsandthemeinvestment.However,intermsofthelongrun,1)whentheindustrylogicandcompanyoperationsaregraduallymovingtowardsthedirectionofmarketexpectedthemes,thesharepricewillkeepanuptrendandtheshort-termandlong-termtrendsaredynamicallyconsistent.2)valuationsthatriseintheshorttermwillexperienceasignificantmean-reversionprocesslaterinthelongrunwhentheindustrylogicandmarketthemeexpectationsdeviatefromreality.WealthmanagementdriveshighearningsgrowthandwerecommendEastMoneyInformation,theleadingonlinebroker.Risks：Macroeconomicdownturn;Marketactivitywanes;Controlofthepandemicisworsethanexpected;Innovationpolicyinsecuritiesindustryislowerthanexpected.[Table_PicQuote]Industryperformance[Table_Report]Relatedreports《券商估值逼近历史底部，建议左侧布局》2022-05-29《市场周期因素影响公募基金行业短期承压，天天基金相对优势显著》2022-05-08《自营拖累业绩，估值逼近历史底部》2022-05-02SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesXiangHu(胡翔)，JieyuZhu(朱洁羽)，YuxiangGe(葛玉翔)andYiyuFang(方一宇).[Table_Author]29June2022ResearchAnalystShiruiOuyang(852)38923120ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk 证券研究报告·行业深度报告·证券II证券II行业深度报告2/31东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]如何选择券商板块的长跑冠军和短跑健将增持（维持）投资要点复盘证券板块（2003-2022/05），我们发现：券商股价的长期和短期驱动因素有所不同，如果放在同一分析框架下分析，可能会出现预测结果和客观情况南辕北辙的情况。因此，我们希望通过历史复盘，分别从长期和短期两个维度，归纳板块龙头股的共性，从而为长短期两个维度的选股提供框架性的指导。成长，是长期股价表现最重要的解释变量。1）东方财富、中信证券长线领跑，超额优势显著。获超额涨幅券商股较少，东方财富及中信证券长期优势显著。2003-2022年5月，东方财富/中信证券分别以+2039%/+1802%的超额涨幅位居证券板块第一/第二，同花顺则以+986%的超额涨幅位居第三。2）长跑超额个股共性：公司长期业绩成长和股价表现高度线性相关。①东方财富年化业绩增速稳居行业第一。从年化业绩增速来看（2012-2021年），东方财富无论是营业收入CAGR（57%）还是归母净利润CAGR（83%）都远高于其他券商个股及行业均值（行业营业收入/归母净利润CAGR分别为：21%/22%）。②公司业绩增长推动股价长期上行。东方财富/同花顺的营收/净利润与股价的相关系数均接近1，个股股价与公司业绩呈正向线性关联。长期来看，公司股价长期上行主要受到业绩增长影响，即公司长期阿尔法决定公司股价走势。3）长期择优：阿尔法优势造就券商个股“长跑冠军”。①东方财富：互联网零售龙头，业绩增速长期优于证券行业，阿尔法优势显著。东财围绕高黏性用户打造财富生态圈，高流量+低成本+优服务构筑核心竞争力；公司利用细分领域优势构建业务护城河，同时不断拓展新业务，加强公司业绩韧性，成就长期涨幅领先。②同花顺：流量变现王者，Al技术助力的多元化业务布局带来规模效应。交易层面+短期主题因素，构成短期股价表现的主要解