Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly Chartbook, May 2018

May 20181A MONTHLY CHARTBOOK HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTERHOUSING FINANCEAT A GLANCE ABOUT THE CHARTBOOKThe Housing Finance Policy Center’s (HFPC) mission is to produce analyses and ideas that promote sound public policy, efficient markets, and access to economic opportunity in the area of housing finance. At A Glance, a monthly chartbook and data source for policymakers, academics, journalists, and others interested in the government’s role in mortgage markets, is at the heart of this mission. We welcome feedback from our readers on how we can make At A Glance a more useful publication. Please email any comments or questions to ataglance@urban.org.To receive regular updates from the Housing Finance Policy Center, please visit hereto sign up for our bi-weekly newsletter. HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER STAFFLaurie GoodmanCenter Co-DirectorAlanna McCargoCenter Co-DirectorEdward GoldingSenior FellowJim ParrottSenior FellowSheryl PardoAssociate Director of CommunicationsTodd Hill Policy Program ManagerJun ZhuSenior Research AssociateBing BaiResearch AssociateKaran KaulResearch AssociateJung ChoiResearch AssociateBhargavi GaneshResearch AnalystSarah StrochakResearch AssistantAndrea ReyesProject Manager CONTENTSOverviewMarket Size OverviewValue of the U S Residential Housing Marke t6Size of the US Residential Mortgage Marke t6Private Label Securities7Agency Mortgage-Back ed Securitie s7Origination Volume and Composition First Lien Origination Volume & Share8Mortgage Origination Product TypeComposition (All Originations & Purchase Originations Only)9Securitization Volume and CompositionAgency/Non-Agency Share of Residen tial MBS Issuance10Non-Agency MBS Issuance10Non-Agency Securitization10Agency Activity: Volumes and Purchase/Refi CompositionAgency Gross Issuance11 Percent Refi a t Issuance11Non-bank Origination ShareNonbank Origination Share: All Loans12Nonbank Origination Share: Purchase Loans12Nonbank Origination Share: Refi Loans12Non-bank Credit BoxAgency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank14Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank14GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank14Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank14State of the MarketMortgage Origination ProjectionsTotal Originations and Refinance Shares15Housing Starts and Home Sales15Credit Availability and Originator ProfitabilityHousing Credit Availability Index (HCAI)16Originator Profitability and Unmeasured Costs (OPUC)16Credit Availability for Purchase LoansBorrower FICO Score at Origination Month17Combined LTV at Origination Month17Origination FICO and LTV by MSA18 CONTENTSHousing Affordability National Ho using Affo rdability Over Time19Affordability Adjuste d fo r MS A-Level D TI 19First-Time Ho mebuyersFirst-Ti me H omeb uyer Sha re20Comparison of Fi rst-time an d Repeat Ho mebuye rs, GS E an d F HA O riginations20Home Price IndicesNational Year-Over-Year HP I G ro wth21Changes in CoreLogicHPI for To p MS As21Negative Equity & Serious Deli nque ncyNegative Equity S hare22Loans in Serio us Delin quen cy22Modifications and LiquidationsLoan Modificatio ns and Liq uidations (By Year & Cumulative)23GSEs under ConservatorshipGSE Portfolio Wind-DownFannie Mae M ortgage-Related Investme nt Po rtfolio 24Freddie Mac Mortgage-Related Invest ment P ortfolio24Effective Guarantee Fees & GSE Risk-Sharing Transactions Effective Guaran tee Fees25Fannie Mae U pfro nt Loan-Level Price Adjustme nt25GSE Risk-S haring Transactio ns and S preads26-27Serious Delinquency RatesSerious Delinque ncy Rates –Fannie Mae & F reddie Mac28Serious Delinque ncy Rates –Single-Family Loans & Multifamily GSE L oans29Agency IssuanceAgency Gross and Net IssuanceAgency G ross Issuan ce30Agency Net Iss uance30Agency Gross Issuance & Fed PurchasesMont hly Gross Iss uance31Fed Abso rptio n of Agency Gross Issuan ce31Mortgage Insurance Act ivityMI Activity & Market Sha re32FHA M I Pre miums fo r Typical Pu rchase Loan33Initial Mon thly Payment Co mpariso n: F HA vs . PM I33Related HFPC WorkPublica tio ns and Eve nts34 INTRODUCTIONThe 2017 HMDA DataOn May 7th, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council announced the availability of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data on mortgage lending activities in 2017. The richness of this data has been instrumental in helping researchers, academics and policymakers understand critical developments in mortgage lending across the nation.Overall, in 2017 lenders originated a total of over 6.0 million home mortgages, about 1 million fewer than the 7.0 million they originated in 2016. This drop was driven by a substantial reduction in refinance originations in 2017 amidst rising mortgage rates. Compared to 2016, refinance originations were lower by 1.1 million in 2017. At the same time, purchase originations increased by over 150,000. The table below shows the origination loan count by loan purpose.HMDA da