Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly Chartbook, May 2017

May 20171A MONTHLY CHARTBOOK HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTERHOUSING FINANCEAT A GLANCE ABOUT THE CHARTBOOKThe Housing Finance Policy Center’s (HFPC) mission is to produce analyses and ideas that promote sound public policy, efficient markets, and access to economic opportunity in the area of housing finance. At A Glance, a monthly chartbook and data source for policymakers, academics, journalists, and others interested in the government’s role in mortgage markets, is at the heart of this mission. We welcome feedback from our readers on how we can make At A Glance a more useful publication. Please email any comments or questions to ataglance@urban.org.To receive regular updates from the Housing Finance Policy Center, please visit hereto sign up for our bi-weekly newsletter. HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER STAFFLaurie GoodmanCenter Co-DirectorAlanna McCargoCenter Co-DirectorEllen SeidmanSenior FellowJim ParrottSenior FellowSheryl PardoAssociate Director of CommunicationsTodd Hill Policy & Research Program ManagerJun ZhuSenior Research AssociateBing BaiResearch Associate IKaran KaulResearch Associate IMaia WoluchemResearch Associate IIBhargavi GaneshResearch AssistantAlison RinconCenter Administrator CONTENTSOverviewMarket Size OverviewValue of the US Residential Housing Market6Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market6Private Label Securities7Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities7Origination Volume and Composition First Lien Origination Volume & Share8Mortgage Origination Product TypeComposition (All Originations & Purchase Originations Only)9Securitization Volume and CompositionAgency/Non-Agency Share of Residential MBS Issuance10Non-Agency MBS Issuance10Non-Agency Securitization10Agency Activity: Volumes and Purchase/Refi CompositionAgency Gross Issuance11 Percent Refi at Issuance11State of the MarketMortgage Origination ProjectionsTotal Originations and Refinance Shares12Housing Starts and Home Sales12Credit Availability and Originator ProfitabilityHousing Credit Availability Index (HCAI)13Originator Profitability and Unmeasured Costs (OPUC)13Credit Availability for Purchase LoansBorrower FICO Score at Origination Month14Combined LTV at Origination Month14Origination FICO and LTV by MSA15Housing Affordability National Housing Affordability Over Time16Affordability Adjusted for MSA-Level DTI 16First-Time HomebuyersFirst-Time Homebuyer Share17Comparison of First-time and Repeat Homebuyers, GSE and FHA Originations17Home Price IndicesNational Year-Over-Year HPI Growth18Changes in CoreLogic HPI for Top MSAs18 CONTENTSNegative Equity & Serious DelinquencyNegative Equity Share19Loans in Serious Delinquency19GSEs under ConservatorshipGSE Portfolio Wind-DownFannie Mae Mortgage-Related Investment Portfolio 20Freddie Mac Mortgage-Related Investment Portfolio20Effective Guarantee Fees & GSE Risk-Sharing Transactions Effective Guarantee Fees21Fannie Mae Upfront Loan-Level Price Adjustment21GSE Risk-Sharing Transactions and Spreads22-23Serious Delinquency RatesSerious Delinquency Rates –Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac24Serious Delinquency Rates –Single-Family Loans & Multifamily GSE Loans25Refinance ActivityTotal HARP Refinance Volume26GSE Loans: Potential RefinancesLoans Meeting HARP Pay History Requirements27Modification ActivityHAMP ActivityNew & Cumulative HAMP Modifications 28Modifications and LiquidationsLoan Modifications and Liquidations (By Year & Cumulative)29Agency IssuanceAgency Gross and Net IssuanceAgency Gross Issuance30Agency Net Issuance30Agency Gross Issuance & Fed PurchasesMonthly Gross Issuance31Fed Absorption of Agency Gross Issuance31Mortgage Insurance ActivityMI Activity & Market Share32FHA MI Premiums for Typical Purchase Loan33Initial Monthly Payment Comparison: FHA vs. PMI33Related HFPC WorkPublications and Events34 INTRODUCTIONThe Rising First-time Homebuyer ShareThe first-time homebuyer share has been creeping up slowly since 2012 (page 17). In February 2017, the first-time homebuyer share of GSE purchase loans stood at 47.1 percent, up from 38 percent in 2012. The FHA’s first-time homebuyer share has always hovered around 80 percent but is also up from 78 percent in 2012 to 82 percent in February 2017. The combined FHA and GSE first-time homebuyer share is up from 57 to 60 percent over the same period although it is still below the 63 percent peak in 2009 when the temporary first-time homebuyer tax credit was available.Increases in the first-time homebuyer share are to be expected in the face of an improving economy, falling unemployment, and rising household formation and incomes. According to the Census Bureau, a total of 854,000 new-owner households were formed in Q1 2017, more than double the 365,000 renter households created in the same period. Although this was first time in over a decade that the number of new-owner households surpassed new-renter households, household formation data have been quite volatile in recent years, suggesting that the latest numbers should be taken with caut