Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly Chartbook, March 2018

March 20181A MONTHLY CHARTBOOK HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTERHOUSING FINANCEAT A GLANCE ABOUT THE CHARTBOOKThe Housing Finance Policy Center’s (HFPC) mission is to produce analyses and ideas that promote sound public policy, efficient markets, and access to economic opportunity in the area of housing finance. At A Glance, a monthly chartbook and data source for policymakers, academics, journalists, and others interested in the government’s role in mortgage markets, is at the heart of this mission. We welcome feedback from our readers on how we can make At A Glance a more useful publication. Please email any comments or questions to ataglance@urban.org.To receive regular updates from the Housing Finance Policy Center, please visit hereto sign up for our bi-weekly newsletter. HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER STAFFLaurie GoodmanCenter Co-DirectorAlanna McCargoCenter Co-DirectorEdward GoldingSenior FellowJim ParrottSenior FellowSheryl PardoAssociate Director of CommunicationsTodd Hill Policy & Research Program ManagerJun ZhuSenior Research AssociateBing BaiResearch AssociateKaran KaulResearch AssociateJung ChoiResearch AssociateBhargavi GaneshResearch AnalystSarah StrochakResearch AssistantAndrea ReyesCenter Administrator CONTENTSOverviewMarket Size OverviewValue of the US Residential Housing Market6Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market6Private Label Securities7Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities7Origination Volume and Composition First Lien Origination Volume & Share8Mortgage Origination Product TypeComposition (All Originations & Purchase Originations Only)9Securitization Volume and CompositionAgency/Non-Agency Share of Residential MBS Issuance10Non-Agency MBS Issuance10Non-Agency Securitization10Agency Activity: Volumes and Purchase/Refi CompositionAgency Gross Issuance11 Percent Refi at Issuance11Non-bank Origination ShareNonbank Origination Share: All Loans12Nonbank Origination Share: Purchase Loans12Nonbank Origination Share: Refi Loans12Non-bank Credit BoxAgency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank13GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank14Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank14GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank14Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank14State of the MarketMortgage Origination ProjectionsTotal Originations and Refinance Shares15Housing Starts and Home Sales15Credit Availability and Originator ProfitabilityHousing Credit Availability Index (HCAI)16Originator Profitability and Unmeasured Costs (OPUC)16Credit Availability for Purchase LoansBorrower FICO Score at Origination Month17Combined LTV at Origination Month17Origination FICO and LTV by MSA18 CONTENTSHousing Affordability National Housing Affordability Over Time19Affordability Adjusted for MSA-Level DTI 19First-Time HomebuyersFirst-Time Homebuyer Share20Comparison of First-time and Repeat Homebuyers, GSE and FHA Originations20Home Price IndicesNational Year-Over-Year HPI Growth21Changes in CoreLogicHPI for Top MSAs21Negative Equity & Serious DelinquencyNegative Equity Share22Loans in Serious Delinquency22Modifications and LiquidationsLoan Modifications and Liquidations (By Year & Cumulative)23GSEs under ConservatorshipGSE Portfolio Wind-DownFannie Mae Mortgage-Related Investment Portfolio 24Freddie Mac Mortgage-Related Investment Portfolio24Effective Guarantee Fees & GSE Risk-Sharing Transactions Effective Guarantee Fees25Fannie Mae Upfront Loan-Level Price Adjustment25GSE Risk-Sharing Transactions and Spreads26-27Serious Delinquency RatesSerious Delinquency Rates –Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac28Serious Delinquency Rates –Single-Family Loans & Multifamily GSE Loans29Agency IssuanceAgency Gross and Net IssuanceAgency Gross Issuance30Agency Net Issuance30Agency Gross Issuance & Fed PurchasesMonthly Gross Issuance31Fed Absorption of Agency Gross Issuance31Mortgage Insurance ActivityMI Activity & Market Share32FHA MI Premiums for Typical Purchase Loan33Initial Monthly Payment Comparison: FHA vs. PMI33Related HFPC WorkPublications and Events34 INTRODUCTIONHow have rising rates impacted the mortgage market so far?As mortgage rates have increased, there has been no shortage of articles explaining the effect of rising rates on the mortgage market. Mortgage rates began their present sustained increase immediately after the last presidential election in November 2016, 20 months ago. Enough data points have become available during this period that we can now measure the effects of rising rates. Below we outline a few.Refinances: The most immediate impact of rising rates is on refinance volumes, which fall as rates rise. For mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the refinance share of total originations declined from 63 percent in Nov 2016 to 46 percent today (page 11). For FHA, VA and USDA-insured mortgages, the refinance share dropped from 44 percent to 35 percent. In terms of volume, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backed refinance volume totaled $390 billion in 2017, down from $550 billion in 2016. For Ginnie Mae, refi volu