CCBI SECURITIES 2 Mark Jolley Global Strategist (852) 3911 8255 jolleymark@ccbintl.com Yao Diliu 姚笛柳 (852) 3911 8269 yaodiliu@ccbintl.com 全球视野 2022年2月24日 乌俄冲突对全球市场的影响 俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的军事冲突已经开始。市场影响将取决于冲突的严重程度和持续时间。在现阶段，我们预计冲突将局限于军事目标，而且是短暂的。就像2008年俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚共和国一样，我们预计俄罗斯对乌克兰部分地区的军事占领将是长期的，从而导致延长美欧等国对俄的制裁。此外，制裁程度似乎很可能会加大。 在全球经济增长放缓的情况下，延长对俄罗斯制裁的主要后果将是推高关键大宗商品价格，而且持续的时间将会更长。受影响最大的大宗商品包括天然气、石油、氨(化肥)、谷物和铝、镍、钛和铂等矿物。我们的假设是，冲突可能会推动原油价格升至每桶120美元。按百分比计算的话，天然气价格的涨幅将超过石油。欧洲电价将飙升至新高，给金属加工带来负面影响。俄罗斯和乌克兰占全球小麦出口的近30%。乌克兰占全球玉米出口的15%以上，是植物油的主要生产国。乌克兰的许多小麦和玉米种植区都靠近俄罗斯边境。再加上化肥氨价格不断上涨，这场冲突将加剧食品价格通胀。 大宗商品价格的变化趋势将带来通胀后果。例如，在美国，油价升至120美元将在未来几个月内推动美国整体CPI通胀率接近9%，（而不是目前的预测峰值略低于8%）。持续的高通胀风险巩固了更高的通胀预期，尤其是在美国，由于核心服务价格加速上涨，美国的通胀压力比其他国家/区域更大。 在美联储收紧货币政策和经济增长势头减弱之际，这场冲突将加剧美国股市的下跌，从而加剧全球股市的下跌。由于较高的通胀风险，美国股市将受到最大影响。如果美国股市出现熊市，美国以及其他地区的以美元为单位的高收益债信用利差可能会超过600个基点。尽管未来通胀将有所变化，但美国股市出现熊市的可能性越来越大，这可能意味着美国国债收益率已经见顶（从三个月的预测角度来看）。最令人惊讶的可能是汇率：我们预计美元在这场危机中几乎不会受益。通胀预期上升通常会损及美元。 图1: 昨天的市场走势暗示着美国股市熊市的开始 来源: 彭博, 建银国际证券预测 13,50014,00014,50015,00015,50016,00016,50017,00017,50002-08-2102-09-2102-10-2102-11-2102-12-2102-01-2202-02-2202-03-22道琼斯交通平均指数理论上道指熊市确定区道琼斯交通平均指数未能赶上道琼斯工业平均指数历史最高水平 Global Perspectives | 24 February 2022 CCBI SECURITIES 3 We expect a reasonably contained military conflict We expect a reasonably contained military conflict for three reasons. First, NATO has said it will not get involved. Second, we believe that President Putin’s objective is not to annex the Ukraine but rather to prevent the further expansion of NATO. Third, Putin has a history of being cautious and calculated when it comes to the use of force. It is likely the incursion will occur in small steps because this will tend to divide Western countries over how best to respond. The Ukraine incursion is a continuation of the diplomatic conflict between Russia and NATO that has been brewing for more than a decade. In a draft treaty delivered to a US diplomat in Moscow in Dec, the Russian government asked for a formal halt to NATO’s eastern enlargement in conjunction with several other demands. The treaty offered a clear message that the Kremlin would resort to military action if its demands were not addressed. The West was given just a month to respond. This Russian ultimatum followed four waves of NATO enlargement, Washington’s withdrawal from treaties governing anti-ballistic missiles, intermediate-range nuclear forces, and unarmed observation aircraft. Judged against this background, the Kremlin will want its military actions to be as surgical and contained as possible, similar to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Georgia in 2008. As with the Georgian invasion, however, we expect a portion of the Ukraine will remain under Russian military occupation once the Kremlin has achieved its military objectives. This will likely include the region stretching from the Crimea to the separatist Donbas region. Fig 2: Russia is likely to occupy the region between Crimea and the Donbass Source: suffragio.org A Russian occupation could well be more extensive than we have indicated but it is unlikely that Russia has territorial ambitions beyond what we have surmised. Russia is likely to sustain its military occupation until it has reached an accord with NATO, which could take several years given the differing abjections among NATO members and, more importantly, serious disunity on the subject among US lawmakers. It is highly likely that the West will impose more aggressive sanctions on Russia to give it leverage in upcoming diplomatic negotiations. The harsher the sanctions, however, the more the economy of Western Europe will be hurt and the more the West will drive Russia and China into closer alliance. This risk will temper the response from the West. Global Perspectives | 24 February 2022 CCBI SECURITIES 4 A more extreme option would be to block Russian access to the global financial messaging service SWIFT, which is used by thousands of financial institutions worldwide and would make it very hard for Russian banks to do business overseas. However, such a measure would also impose a major cost on countries whose banks have close links with Russia. The White House says it is unlikely to do this as an immediate response to an invasion. The main initial response will be targeted sanctions on individuals, Russian banks, and corporates. Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be the major casualty. This discussion assumes that the Ukraine will also be surgical in its response to the Russian incursion. An all-out war would more-or-less force Russia to occupy the entire country and would result in very harsh sanctions beyond what we contemplate. Market implications The imposition of sanctions and disruptions to trade due to the conflict will affect various commodity prices as discussed in our introduction. In the short term, Western Europe has few alternatives to Russian natural gas given its commitment to clima