2021年12月信用债市场运行报告：信用债净融资额环比回落，二级市场到期收益率下行

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2022年1月19日 信用债净融资额环比回落，二级市场到期收益率下行 ——2021年12月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 陈浩川 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，12月信用债发行规模较环比回落，共发行10868.43亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额为403.82亿元，环比明显增加。 净融资方面，12月份信用债共实现净融资1134.58亿元，环比回落；建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，共实现净融资1044.25亿元；AAA级主体信用债净融资环比大幅减少，净融资额由正转负；民营企业净融资连续第18个月为负；城投企业净融资环比小幅下降，非城投企业净融资由正转负，本月信用债净融资的增加仍主要由城投债贡献。 到期压力方面，截至12月末，未来6个月将有37135.41亿元信用债到期，未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，且环比小幅下降。各行业未来到期压力均低于过去12个月平均水平；综合、建筑装饰和化工行业未来到期压力环比明显降低。分企业性质来看，民营企业债券未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，但环比变化不大。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债未来到期压力低于过去12个月平均水平，并环比小幅下降。 到期收益率方面，或受利率债收益率走势影响，中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均延续上月下行态势。 信用利差方面，12月各行业不同评级产业债信用利差总体边际走阔，AA+级煤炭行业信用利差大幅收窄并创历史新低；除AA+、AA级化工行业产业债外，其余不同评级各行业产业债信用利差均处于历史中等或较低水平。AAA、AA+级城投债信用利差小幅走阔；AA级城投债信用利差则小幅收窄并回落至历史中等水平。此外，12月有包括恒大集团在内的9家房企主体评级被下调。 展望未来，利率降低、房地产行业企稳、加大基建投资等因素预计会对债券融资有促进作用，信用债一级市场发行规模会稳中有增。此外，在2022年经济稳增长政策支撑下，中高等级主体信用质量将保持稳定，其信用利差会维持低位或进一步收窄。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年11月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.12.15 2.《2021年11月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.12.15 3.《2021年10月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.11.15 4.《2021年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.11.15 5.《2021年9月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 6.《2021年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 7.《2021年8月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.09.15 8.《2021年8月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.09.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets January 19th, 2022 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuance decreased month-on-month in December, which was about 1.09 trillion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuance was 40.38 billion yuan in November, which was more than that of the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuance decreased to 113.46 billion yuan in December. The net financing of the construction industry was the largest, which was 104.42 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA-rated issuers decreased significantly, which turned from positive to negative. The net financing of private-owned enterprises was negative for the 18th consecutive month. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds decreased slightly, and the net financing of non-LGFV bonds decreased from positive to negative. The net financing of corporate bonds was still mainly contributed by LGFV bonds. In terms of maturing pressure, 3.71 trillion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months at the end of December. The overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market was apparently lower than the average maturity pressure of the previous 12 months, and is slightly lower than that of the end of previous month. From the perspective of industries, the future maturity pressure of each industry was lower than the average level of the past 12 months; the future maturity pressure of the comprehensive, building decoration and chemical industries decreased significantly month-on-month.. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers was significantly lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, and remained stable month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturing pressure of LGFV bonds was lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, and decreased slightly compared to last month. In terms of yield to maturity, affected by the movement of the yields of China’s government bonds, the yields of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds continued to fall in December. In terms of credit spreads, the overall credit spreads of all rated industry bonds were marginally widened in December, while the credit spreads of AA plus-rated coal industry bonds narrowed sharply and hit record lows. Except for AA+ and AA bonds of chemical industry, the credit spreads of different ratings and industries were at a historically medium or low level. The credit spreads of AAA/AA+-rated LGFV bonds widened slightly. The credit spreads of AA-rated LGFV bonds narrowed slightly and fell back to historical medium level. In addition, the main rating of 9 real estate companies including Evergrande Group was downgraded in December. The net financing of credit bonds fell month-on-month, and the yields to maturity in the secondary market decreased ——December 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Shen Xuefeng, Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·Chi