2023年2月信用债市场运行报告：国有企业净融资大幅增加，二级市场到期收益率下行

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2023年3月15日 、 国有企业净融资大幅增加，二级市场到期收益率下行 ——2023年2月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：曹晓婧 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，2月份信用债共发行8,865.55亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行4,398.50亿元、2,057.34亿元和1,821.60亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有150只，涉及金额424.00亿元。 净融资方面，2月份信用债净融资为3,286.62亿元，延续上月增长态势。10个重点行业中建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，净融资额为1,792.76亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为1,394.80亿元、1,336.13亿元和521.79亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为3,285.00亿元和1.62亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为2,191.61亿元和1,095.01亿元。 到期压力方面，截至2月末，未来6个月将有51,958.74亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.94，较上月末增加0.10。分行业看，大部分重点行业信用债未来到期压力环比上升。分企业性质看，国有企业与非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比上升。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债与非城投债到期压力均环比上升。 到期收益率方面，2月份中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均下行。其中3年期的中短期票据到期收益率下降幅度小于5年期的中短期票据到期收益率。 信用利差方面，2月份重点行业债券信用利差均收窄。不同评级城投债信用利差均下行，AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差分别下行34.74BP、47.80BP和57.30BP。不同评级城投债信用利差所处百分位数较上月均下降，AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差所处2015年以来历史百分位数分别为14%、42%和45%。 2月份，多项政策出台或将影响信用债市场。展望未来，地产债方面，尽管部分受困房企有望从相关政策获得一定流动性支持，团体购房贷款等创新金融产品的推出有望加速存量商品房去化进程，但当前行业优质资产较少、项目未来回款风险较大，或将导致募集资金难度较大，仍需继续防范尾部房企债券风险；城投债方面，近期中央再次发文强调“化解地方政府隐性债务风险”“加强地方政府融资平台公司治理”“防范地方国有企事业单位‘平台化’”等政策主基调不变，短期内城投债风险暴露可能性依旧较低，但长期仍需防范弱资质城投企业市场化后的风险。 相关研究报告： 1.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.2.14 2.《2022年12月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.1.13 3.《2022年11月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.12.14 4.《2022年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.11.15 5.《2022年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.10.17 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets March 15th, 2023 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of 886.555 billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued in February, and the issuance scale decreased month-on-month. Among them, the short-term financing bills, corporate bonds and medium-term notes with the largest issuance volume were 439.850 billion yuan, 205.734 billion yuan and 182.160 billion yuan respectively. There were 150 corporate bonds cancelled or postponed in this month, involving an amount of 42.400 billion yuan. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds in February was 328.662 billion yuan, continuing the growth trend of the previous month. Among the 10 key industries, the building decoration industry has achieved the most net financing, with a net financing amount of 179.276 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA, AA+ and AA level entities was 139.480 billion yuan, 133.613 billion yuan and 52.179 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was 328.500 billion yuan and 0.162 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was 219.161 billion yuan and 109.501 billion yuan respectively. In terms of maturity pressure, as of the end of February, 5,195.874 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.94, up 0.10 from the end of previous month. From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of most key industries increased month-on-month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturity pressure of state-owned companies’ bonds and non-state-owned companies’ bonds both increased month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds both increased month-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields to maturity of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds in the secondary market both decreased in February. Among them, the yield to maturity of 3-year short-term bills fell less than that of 5-year short term bills. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of all key industries narrowed in February. Credit spreads of LGFV bonds with different ratings all decreased, and the credit spreads of AAA, AA+ and AA LGFV bonds decreased by 34.74BP, 47.80BP and 57.30BP respectively. The percentiles of the credit spreads of LGFV bonds with different ratings dropped from the previous month, AAA, AA+ and AA LGFV bond spreads are at historic levels of 14%, 42% and 45% since 2015 respectively. The net financing of state-owned companies increased significantly, and the yield to maturity in the secondary market declined ——February 2023 China's corporate bonds market operation report Author: Cao Xiaojing, Jian Jiangping E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets March 15th, 2023 In February, the introduction of a number of policies may affect the credit bond market. Looking ahead, in terms of